Final staff takes and predictions before today's renewal of the Governor's Cup between Kentucky and Louisville.
What are the main reasons for Kentucky fans to be optimistic about this game?
Jeff Drummond: In many ways, the series feels a bit like it did when Louisville had control of the winning streak but Kentucky felt like it was getting closer to taking over. Until the Cardinals prove they can do that, the Cats have the mental edge in this game. UK has struggled on the offensive side of the ball throughout the season, but the Cats have gotten a spark from Cutter Boley at quarterback and strong running from Jamarion Wilcox of late. A Louisville team that gave up 38 points to Stanford could be just what the doctor ordered.
Travis Graf: Kentucky has dominated the series over the past six years, and it’s really seemed to psych out the Louisville program and fan base. Louisville’s defense is one of the less physical on the schedule and I think if Kentucky leans on the run game they can win. Louisville isn’t a great team, but they’re solid. If Kentucky plays a good game, which has been rare this season, the athleticism and physicality should push them over the top.
Justin Rowland: They've tended to play well in this game. I think that matters. If you watch football for a long time and some patterns are established in a series then those patterns are worth thinking about. For a long time, Kentucky has tended to play better in this game than Louisville. They've been better more often than not recently, but this game has also tended to bring out its best much more so than has been the case for UofL. Perhaps Kentucky looks at this game like it's a bowl and a chance to do something good in a season with so much bad. Then we're going to see Cutter Boley trying to build on what he did the previous two weeks. He's made some nice plays in a relatively small amount of work.
In the bigger picture, aside from OL, Kentucky still has a good talent situation relative to Louisville so it's hard to think about them as a true underdog in this game.
What are the main reasons for Kentucky fans to be concerned?
Drummond: Louisville has played well against good teams like Notre Dame, Miami, and Clemson this season, although it remains difficult to gauge the overall strength of schedule between the SEC and ACC. Jeff Brohm is a highly respected play-caller, and quarterback Tyler Shough is having a good season with 3,067 yards passing to give the Cards the type of balance that UK hasn't been able to find this season. If this game is played north of 28 points for each team, it does not bode well for the Cats.
Graf: It’s going to be the first start for freshman QB Cutter Boley, so everyone is going into this one with blind expectations. Louisville doesn’t turn the ball over a ton and they usually do a good job of taking what the defense gives them. I don’t trust Kentucky to come out with a concise gameplan on offense and execute it.
Rowland: Kentucky's offensive operation has been broken for a long time. It's hard to see them putting up a lot of points on anybody because of the protection situation. Louisville is eager to reverse the trend in this series. Tyler Shough has put up some pretty big numbers this season (3,141 yards, 23 TD, 6 INT) and that far exceeds anything the Kentucky passing attack has done this year.
What's your prediction for the game and who is an important Wildcat?
Drummond: Louisville 29, Kentucky 26 -- Half of my brain is telling me don't pick the Cards until they prove they can beat the Cats, but the other half is convinced that UofL is just better quipped to put points on the board in this matchup. For UK to have a chance, the rushing attack needs to have its best day of the season with Demie Sumo-Karngbaye or Jamarion Wilcox taking Governor's Cup MVP honors.
Graf: Louisville 24, Kentucky 21. Louisville’s a solid team this year, and in previous years, Kentucky could pick their score against that ACC defense, but not this year. I don’t have much faith in the offense to put up points, and I feel like they need to get to 24 to win this one.
Rowland: We've seen Barion Brown elevate his game and make big-time plays in some games in the past. He did it against Louisville and Clemson at the end of last year. He did it against Ole Miss this year. He's done it a number of times. When things have looked bad, Barion has sometimes come through with electric plays. He needs do to that again today because I think Kentucky will have to exchange some body blows to win this one. Kentucky 24, Louisville 23.
