Seven things to know about the Vanderbilt Commodores
Fresh off a demoralizing loss at home to Ole Miss, Kentucky will now hit the road to take on a Vanderbilt squad that has yet to record an SEC win. The Commodores are off to a 4-5 start and four of their five conference losses have been by double-digits.
Derek Mason is in his fourth season in Nashville and is currently sitting on a 17-29 overall record. The Commodores have finished each season with a losing record, but this is a program that is making progress. For the first time since James Franklin left for the Penn State gig, the Vandy passing attack has life and quarterback Kyle Shurmur is the most improved player in the SEC. With seniors all over the two-deep, this is a team that has seen everything college football has to offer.
Saturday will be the 90th all-time meeting between the two SEC East members and Kentucky currently owns a 43-42-4 lead. It seems each game played between the two is always close and low scoring while the winner usually moves on to the postseason. UK will be heading to Nashville looking for their first win in Vanderbilt Stadium since Rich Brooks was on the sideline in 2009.
Here is what you need to know about the Commodores.
Good Quarterback Play
As a true freshman in 2015, Kyle Shurmur was put into the lineup for the Commodores after a 2-3 start. In his first start, Vanderbilt would beat Missouri to give Derek Mason his first SEC win. Shurmur would also get the start in the Vandy win over Kentucky as the Commodores finished the season 4-8. For the year, Shurmur only completed 42.7% of his passes, with a 4.9 yards per attempt average, and five touchdowns.
As a sophomore, Shurmur would start all 13 games for Vanderbilt as they made it back to the postseason for the first time since 2013. Shurmur improved in all areas but the stats were still pretty mediocre. For the season, Shurmur completed 54.4% of his passes, averaged 6.4 yards per attempt, and threw nine touchdowns with 10 interceptions.
Now we enter his junior season and Shurmur has made a significant jump. The six-foot-four, 227-pound junior has thrown 20 touchdowns and three interceptions in nine games. Shurmur’s completion percentage is still only hovering around 56%, but the big plays have occurred at a more frequent rate. Shurmur is now averaging 7.4 yards per attempt and has had three games where he’s averaged more than 10 yards per attempt. Shurmur has been the best player on this Vanderbilt offense by a very wide margin.
Feast or Famine Rush Defense
Against each Group of Five and FCS team the Commodores have faced this year, their run defense has been fantastic. These opponents (Middle Tennessee, Alabama A&M, WKU) each averaged under two yards per carry. Combined, these foes recorded 88 carries for 84 yards.
Against FBS opponents, however, it has been a totally different story as all six opponents have recorded at least 200 yards on the ground. Five of the six teams have averaged at least 5.7 yards per carry and both Alabama and Georgia ran for over 400 yards against a Vanderbilt defense that many thought would be one of the best in the SEC this fall. Each SEC team has easily eclipsed their season average for rushing yards when facing Vanderbilt.
Turns out losing All-American linebacker Zach Cunningham was a huge blow and he covered a lot of holes for this defense last season. S&P+ lists this as the 109th rush defense in the country and we should see another big day from Benny Snell.
What happened to Ralph Webb?
In his first three seasons, the senior from Gainesville had been one of the most dependable running backs in the SEC. After rushing for over 900 yards as a freshman, Webb put back-to-back thousand yard seasons together in his sophomore and junior years increasing his yard per carry average each year. Webb entered his senior season with a puncher’s chance of becoming the SEC’s all-time leading rusher.
In 2017, things have changed as Webb is really struggling. Running behind, perhaps, the worst offensive line in the league hasn’t helped much. Through nine games, Webb has recorded 543 yards on 139 carries. During this stretch, Webb is currently posting a career low 3.9 yards per carry.
As of late, Webb has started to become more productive as he’s averaged at least 4.5 yards per carry in each of his last three games. Against Ole Miss and WKU, Webb ran for over 100 yards for the first time this season. It will be essential for Kentucky, which currently ranks fifth in rush defense in the SEC, to keep Webb in check on Saturday.
Excellent Secondary
Vanderbilt entered the season having one of the country’s most experienced secondaries and they were expected to have a big season. The Commodores had multiple corners and safeties that have played a lot of football and Vandy was needing them to be the backbone of this football team.
So far, they have not disappointed.
Safety LaDarius Wiley leads the team in tackles while fellow safety Ryan White is not far behind. Sophomore JoeJuan Williams and fellow corner Tre Herndon have combined for 17 pass breakups. The secondary has only came away with four interceptions, but S&P+ has this defense ranked 11th against the pass.
Vanderbilt has only given up more than 200 passing yards twice this season and Saturday will be a tall challenge for Stephen Johnson and this UK passing attack. It will be essential for UK to establish the run so Johnson and these receivers can work entirely in the play-action passing game.
Shifty Receivers
Vanderbilt is not very big at receiver, but their little guys have been very hard to cover as Kyle Shurmur is lighting up opposing defenses. Vanderbilt has three receivers that have recorded over 300 yards this season and they should challenge a Kentucky secondary that is currently giving up 279.4 passing yards per game.
Senior Trent Sherfield leads the team with 540 yards on 32 receptions. Sherfield has pulled in receptions on 71.1% of his targets and he has been one of the most efficient receivers in the SEC. Sophomore Kalija Lipscomb is Shurmur’s favorite target but most passes intended for him end up incomplete. The New Orleans native, however, is a playmaker whenever he touches the rock and his six touchdowns and 16.9 yards per catch proves that. C.J. Duncan and Caleb Scott are both senior possession receivers who Shurmur looks to as well.
The passing game doesn’t stop with the receivers as tight end Jared Pinkney is having a good year. The sophomore has 15 receptions and three have gone for touchdowns. Look for Shurmur to target him when the Commodores get into scoring range.
Red Zone Efficiency
When the Commodores get into scoring range, they do not blow opportunities. Vandy’s offense has had 24 red zone possessions on the season and has come away with 21 touchdowns. That 87.5% conversion rate leads the SEC. Most of these touchdowns have occurred through the air as Kyle Shurmur has been excellent in scoring range. Vanderbilt is currently averaging 5.27 points per trip inside their opponents’ 40. If they cross midfield, it’s highly likely the drive is finishing with six.
On the other side of the football, Vanderbilt currently ranks sixth in the SEC in red zone defense. The Commodores are giving up touchdowns at a high clip but opponents are getting scores 83.9% of the time.
Expect an Ugly Game
Since Derek Mason and Mark Stoops arrived, this series has not been easy on the eyes. The average score has been Kentucky 18, Vanderbilt 13.7 with a whole lot of ugly football involved. The Commodores have only scored four touchdowns against Kentucky in the Derek Mason era and three have been defensive touchdowns. Kentucky’s offense is allowing more points than the Kentucky defense. If you add in the 2013 game where Kentucky took a loss to James Franklin’s last Vanderbilt team by a score of 22-6, this has been the ugliest series in the SEC.
With both teams entering the game averaging under 27 points per game, I think it’s safe to say the first won to 20 should feel good about their chances for a victory. As always, turnovers will be key and we’ll see if Vanderbilt can steal some cheap points for the fifth game in a row. Kentucky enters the game with a plus-two turnover margin while Vanderbilt sits at even. Who makes the big mistake on Saturday?
