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3-2-1 Pres. by Safe Floors and Tub: Spring review and a look at what's next

This week's CatsIllustrated.com 3-2-1 Pres. by Safe Floors and Tubs takes a look back at spring football as well as a look ahead at what's next on the calendar.

As always, the 3-2-1 follows a simple format: Three things we've learned, two things we're asking, one bold prediction.

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Gunnar Hoak (Chet White/UK Athletics)
Gunnar Hoak (Chet White/UK Athletics)

What we've learned

1. Kentucky's quarterback depth seems to be just fine.

When Drew Barker returns to full health and 'full-go' then this will really be even more indisputable. But consider this: Spring football just passed, and with it the likelihood of a preseason injury has diminished. Kentucky returns a starting quarterback that led the program to seven wins in 11 games in 2017, and he's a senior. Kentucky also returns a more experienced Gunnar Hoak, who has now played well in two games (and really exceptionally well in the last, on Friday).

Danny Clark probably isn't ready to play in the SEC and Walker Wood isn't competing yet, but when you throw Barker into the mix, perhaps as early as this year, then Kentucky would go into the 2017 with three quarterbacks Darin Hinshaw and the staff would feel comfortable with.

Kentucky might not have the best quarterback situation in the SEC, but they have the kind of depth that will make the coaches sleep a little easier at night. Of course, last year concerns over Johnson's durability, rooted in the reality that he's rail-thin, proved to be overblown. He survived nearly a full season in the Southeastern Conference.

Johnson has to play better than he did down the stretch in the spring game. Hoak still has to prove it in a real game. Barker has a ways to go to be ready again. But between those three, come this fall, the quarterback position should at least not be a problem. For a team that returns so many starters and one that should be able to lean on a stout line and rushing attack, that's good news.

2. Kentucky's defense has some playmakers.

There are reasons to be worried about Kentucky's defense this fall and you don't have to look very far. The defense made some plays in the spring game but it wasn't exactly overwhelming. The defense ranked near the bottom, nationally, in tackles at or before the line of scrimmage during the 2016 season. And it's been a long time since Kentucky fielded a defense that we could really say was good.

But this much seems obvious: Kentucky has some playmakers. Perhaps as many or more playmakers on defense than they have had in a long, long time.

We've known about All-SEC linebacker Jordan Jones and safety Mike Edwards, who could be playing in the NFL in two years (or even one). We also know about Chris Westry and Derrick Baity's immense talent. We know that Denzil Ware and Josh Allen created a good amount of sacks and negative yardage plays as edge-rushing specialists last season.

But the spring game also served notice that Boogie Watson and Jamin Davis seem to be big-time players in the making. Watson's more of a pass-rush specialist in the mold of Ware, and Davis is more of a tackling-machine. Adrian Middleton was active while he played, redshirt freshman Kordell Looney moved better than a player his size should and both Jordan Griffin and Davonte Robinson have talent in the secondary that is undeniable.

None of that means Kentucky will have an upper-echelon SEC defense. But in terms of size, speed, quickness, explosiveness and a mixture of proven veterans and young, budding potential stars, Kentucky's defense appears to be set up for, potentially, a better run than it's seen in a long time.

3. Jarren Williams is done with recruiting for the spring and maybe for good.

In one of our 3-2-1 Bold Predictions recently we said Jarren Williams would stick with Kentucky. That prediction looks good, for now at least.

Williams' last visit of the spring was to Kentucky on Friday for the spring game and he told CatsIllustrated.com that he and his family are leaning towards avoiding camps at other schools. Recently there was an interview with Williams at AL.com, in which he indicated he may well attend camps at some of the schools that had offered earlier in the spring.

That caused some concern, but with Williams now leaning against those camps Kentucky looks like it has a great chance to hold onto Williams. If he's done for the spring and he doesn't do camps this summer, and Kentucky survived trips to Alabama, LSU, Florida, Florida State, Tennessee and elsewhere, then it would be slightly surprising if he flips.

But things are always subject to change and Williams has (very professionally) always been measured and worded things very carefully. So stay tuned.

Freshmen who arrive this summer could change next year's forecast (Chet White/UK Athletics)
Freshmen who arrive this summer could change next year's forecast (Chet White/UK Athletics)

What we're asking

1. When will Kentucky's next big surge of commitments come?

Right now Kentucky has six commitments from the 2018 class. Their class is ranked No. 25, according to Rivals.com, and UK appears to be set up for a pretty solid class overall. There is reason for caution, with the Commonwealth unlikely to produce a lot of commitments for Kentucky this year. But there's also room for plenty of optimism with Vince Marrow mining Ohio, Eddie Gran putting in work in Florida, and a lot of talented players having already visited Kentucky.

The big commitment seasons for Kentucky under Mark Stoops have generally seemed to be as follows: Early spring (February-spring game), summer camp commitments (June, mostly), and late season-Signing Day (November-late January).

This is probably going to be a big class for Kentucky so let's assume UK still needs to add, roughly, 20-22 more commitments. It's possible Kentucky could add more commitments between now and the summer, but the next big surge in commitments is probably going to come around June when summer camps crank up.

There are a lot of players Kentucky would take commitments from right now, but by and large those players (who are very high on the staff's board) are out visiting lots of schools, mulling over big offer lists and taking their time. There are a lot of players that Kentucky will want to evaluate in camp before the staff is willing to take a commitment. And that's why June is going to be so pivotal. But with five commitments and more than 20 to go, there's a lot that's to be determined.

2. How much will Kentucky change from now 'til the end of fall camp?

The spring, and specifically the spring game, only tells us so much. But it does tell us quite a bit and the coaches surely took a lot from all of those spring practices, scrimmages and the final exhibition.

Right now Kentucky looks like a team that will have a pretty strong running game, an experienced if inconsistent quarterback, promising receivers that still have something to prove, and a defense that has to get better but has a lot of playmakers. That just about sums it up.

So what can change between now and the start of the season, realistically?

For starters, Stephen Johnson seems like he had the coaches believing he had improved more than the spring game showed. So maybe we shouldn't read too much into his unspectacular spring game performance.

Kentucky's running back depth could improve before the start of the season if Bryant Koback is ready to come back. Conversely, if UK suffers an injury between now and the start of the season to either Benny Snell, A.J. Rose or Sihiem King then the position's depth could be in crisis mode.

The arrival of Lynn Bowden will make Kentucky more explosive. His arrival and Clevan Thomas' continued experience will give Kentucky a better forecast at the slot position.

We didn't see the impact of Lonnie Johnson in the spring game, as he was out with a hamstring issue. We also didn't see what kind of rapport Johnson will have with C.J. Conrad, because Conrad was out of the game as well.

The defensive line could improve markedly (or it might not) as the young players continue gathering experience and spend more time in the weight room, as a deep, athletic class of freshmen arrive, and as Alvonte Bell comes back to form.

Perhaps most significantly, what will the impact of Matthew Panton be in the punting game? Can he unseat Grant McKinniss?

In short, we're asking the question ("How much can UK improve by the start of the season from what we saw on Friday?") because it's an open-ended question, but the arrival of a solid recruiting class and the expected return of several injured players could still make Kentucky a very different team than what we saw.

One bold prediction

Matthew Panton will be Kentucky's starting punter in 2017.

The coaches aren't going to give up on McKinniss but in the spring game he didn't look like he had improved from the previous year, and he needs to improve on that a lot. There were too many short punts in the middle of the field when McKinniss needed to flip things for the defense. Kentucky can have a special season by its program's standards in 2017 and they can't let the punting game derail things. Panton is experienced and a specialist who can pin opponents deep, at the very least.

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