Thursday thoughts from Cats Illustrated publisher Justin Rowland ...
Decision day for 4-star WR Dane Key ... Today at 6 p.m., in the Frederick Douglass cafeteria, four-star WR Dane Key announces his college decision. His finalists are Kentucky, Oregon, South Carolina, and Michigan. Right now all the buzz is for Kentucky. All the FutureCasts are for the 'Cats as well.
This recruitment has always seemed to look good for Kentucky under one condition: That the offense do enough and change enough to make the situation better than a non-starter for a receiver who would ultimately have to envision himself at your school. Even for a local guy, even a potential home town hero, Kentucky's offense probably had to change to have a great shot with someone like Key.
We'll see very soon where Key is actually going to end up but my read on the situation has been that Michigan is the one to watch most other than Kentucky. They're not exactly a perfect landing spot for wide receivers and the Wolverines got involved later than most schools so there was ground to make up but it did seem like that visit went very well.
Still, when Vince Marrow zeroes in on somebody for as long as he had here, I'm rarely going to bet against him.
UK's 2022 class in the rankings ... Right now UK's '22 recruiting class is ranked No. 26 in the nation (see above graphic). If Key commits to Kentucky it would move the 'Cats from 1,395 overall points to 1,500 points because a four-star prospect outside the Rivals250 is worth 105 points overall. That would move Kentucky up from No. 26 to No. 19 in a tie with Boston College. Most impressive, Kentucky would still have fewer commitments than all of those other teams shown in that graphic, which means its average ranking per recruit would be higher than all those teams shown.
UK is recruiting like an upper echelon SEC team right now. Not the same as UGA or Bama, but not far off from the best of the rest of the league.
Get rid of the ceiling ... I had a conversation with someone close to the program recently and just shared that I was having to change my expectation level for Kentucky football again. The first big change came in regard to recruiting. I never thought a program that was pulling in classes ranked in the 50s and 60s could start to recruit classes ranked in the 20s and 30s every single year. They proved me wrong on that, although in hindsight there was really never any excuse for Kentucky to be recruiting classes ranked that low. It took doing a lot of things wrong (lack of commitment, the need for renovations, coach salaries, etc) to get there. They're not there anymore.
Then I didn't think that you could go 10-3 and win the Citrus Bowl at Kentucky by playing a conventional style of football that didn't somehow shy away from the typical trench warfare that grinds teams down at the line of scrimmage. But they did that, too.
What I told this person was that for the first time I believe Kentucky is moving toward being able to compete for for an SEC championship and even more than that - and there's only one thing bigger than that. And why not? They may be the third best team in the SEC this season, so that's not all that far off. And with what we're hearing about this recruiting surge and how the class could finish behind the scenes, why would I even put another ceiling on them?
LINK: Everything Mike Leach said this week
How much perceptions have changed ... Most 17 year old high school football players were not soaking up 12 hours of college football every Saturday from a young age like I was. But they're very much shaped by recent results. They watch highlights. They do watch games. They go to games. They have a lot of people in their ear from family members to teachers, high school and college coaches.
Based on what these guys have told me and things I've picked up on, the perception of Kentucky football is 100% different than even five or six years ago when Stoops had already upped the recruiting level for UK as much as any other coach anywhere during the same time period.
If you're a 17 year old football player then you remember Kentucky winning ten games once. You're listening to people say this team could be an 11-1 playoff dark horse. You've seen them in the postseason five consecutive years, and that will be six this year. You've seen them win the Citrus Bowl. You've seen them split the last four with Florida including one on the road, and you've really seen them be in a position to have the advantage in that series over an even longer period of time but for mistakes. You're not hearing about streaks against Florida or Tennessee. You've seen Kentucky top 10 or top 15 in the number of NFL Combine invites in two of the past three years. You've seen them put 13 guys into the NFL over the last three years. You see they've got SEC-level facilities, the second longest tenured coach in the SEC, and unlike some other places there has not been a black cloud of sanctions or impropriety at all in the last two decades.
That's a pretty good case to a high school kid. And now, your offense isn't something you have to explain away. You're not selling the hope of something they haven't seen. You're pointing to Wan'Dale and C Rod as two of the SEC's best players who are being showcased properly.
LINK: UK Football Practice Notebook - 10/27
If you were an assistant coach at a school that's recruiting against Kentucky for someone, what are you going to say if you want to negative recruit? Stoops is going to leave for another job? But he's been there almost a decade and has an excellent contract. Coen won't be there long? That's better than your OC not doing a good job. Can't get over the hump against Georgia? Well right now they're looking down at everyone else in the East.
Not "everything" is riding on the UT and MSU games ... I understand the temptation to think that everything is riding on the UT and MSU games. If they win those two then 11-1 is very likely. I don't want to try and talk anyone down from that because the opportunity to finish 12-1 with a New Years Day win or even being in a position to sneak into the playoff is a once in a lifetime opportunity for so many Kentucky fans.
I just don't think you "have" to go 11-1 at this point for the season to accomplish the most important thing: Setting the table for a much different, much better football future at Kentucky.
Because of everything I tried to outline in the section above, I think a new history may already be here. We don't know how long Stoops is going to stay at Kentucky, we don't know how the rest of his tenure or even this year are going to play out. But we've already seen several sets of expectations shattered, perceptions everywhere have already changed, and the old financial and geographic constraints are obsolete because of SEC money and the recruiting strategy of the last decade. In short, even in a worst case scenario -- if Kentucky finished 9-3 and Stoops moved on somewhere (though I do not believe he will) -- then forevermore, fans and everyone else will know not to sell the program short again, and that it can be an upper echelon football program in the nation's premier conference.
LINK: UK Basketball Press Conference Notes
UK's fortunes with skill players has changed ... There's a perfect storm going on right now when it comes to Kentucky and skill position players in the program's sights. The Wildcats are selling a fantastic start, an offense that looks much more open than in recent years, and the successful featuring of Wan'Dale Robinson and Chris Rodriguez, who are statistically two of the top performers in the Southeastern Conference. At the same time, UK is able to tell these players that several guys are going to be gone next year, and if you like the way these players are being featured then opportunity awaits. That's a very strong pitch and it's also clear from what we've heard that, behind the scenes, some movers and shakers in the world of football and recruiting realize the job that Liam Coen has done with the offense.
Today is about Dane Key, but you know the rest of the story. Kentucky has a chance to put together a cast of skill players this year and offseason that rivals anything they've ever done. Given that's the single biggest thing that has been holding UK back along with QB play until this year and that would be interesting.
Keys to UK-Mississippi State ... Third down conversions are going to be big. Kentucky was 9/19 on third down against UGA and the Bulldogs were 2/7 on third down against Kentucky. That was as good as any team has been against UGA all season long. If Kentucky can convert third downs and play its kind of game then it will put Mississippi State in an uncomfortable situation and it will upset the rhythm of the Air Raid. Will Rogers can get hot and do things in a hurry and part of beating him is keeping that offense off the field enough to avoid that moment and disrupt the kind of ball control passing game they want to play.
The bad thing is Mississippi State is excellent on third downs too, and if they're clicking then the same could be said the other way around. How would Kentucky fare, knowing how Stoops likes to play, if the defense can't get off the field? MSU has converted 47% of its third downs on the season and 53% of its third downs in SEC play. (Only 38% against its two ranked opponents though.)
If Kentucky turns the ball over just once or not at all then it's hard for me to see them losing the game. We saw last year that a Brad White defense can rush a few and drop most against MSU. This is a much better Mississippi State offense but I just think this defense led by Paschal, Square, and Corker will dig its heels in and play tough enough to give them a chance to win. The offense first and foremost just can't shoot itself in the foot with giveaways. Turnovers are cliche, though.
I think Kentucky needs to stick with the run. UK was averaging 260 rushing yards per game in SEC play going into the UGA game. They were not able to run the ball against Georgia. I suspect it will be more difficult to rush against MSU than any of the other teams the Cats will face the rest of the way. Just based on the numbers that seems true. Kentucky can't fall in love with the pass. You don't want to throw 40-45 times on the road against a solid defense. That's just not something Stoops would probably like to do. So I think it will take a lot of discipline to stick with the run but that's what they have to do. Run to set up the pass.
LINK: Behind Enemy Lines with Kelly Quinlan of BulldogBlitz.com
No glaring matchup advantages for either team ... One of the things I look for before a game is where one team or the other has a major advantage. Not a little advantage, a major advantage. If one team is great at creating explosives and the other is bad at preventing them, that stands a good chance to shape the outcome given how important explosives are. It's up there with turnovers, injuries, and anything else. But we can look for those uneven matchup areas everywhere.
Kentucky and Mississippi State aren't all that dissimilar even though they run very different offensive systems. They're solid against the run. UK was better at preventing big plays but UGA poked some holes in that with their play two weekends ago. They both play ball control football in different ways.
I just don't see any glaring matchup advantages for either team on paper going into this one. Kentucky has been a bit better on the whole this year, but this is a fairly evenly matched game when you factor home field.
LINK: What Kentucky fans should know about Syracuse WR Taj Harris
Concern about Kiyaunta? ... Over the last several days I've noticed a lot of folks on social media and at the House of Blue or Wildcat Lair football forum with a rising sense of concern as it relates to the commitment of Rivals100 OL Kiyaunta Goodwin. I voiced my feelings on that at the House of Blue and will restate and elaborate here.
Nobody has ever told me, "Goodwin is never flipping. No matter what he's always Kentucky." This recruitment has just looked good for Kentucky for a long time. Goodwin had offers from Alabama, Ohio State, and almost everywhere else before he verbally committed to Kentucky. He had already visited those schools before he verbally committed to Kentucky. He has been such a frequent visitor to UK over not just one or two years but for about five years. He's working with someone who has sent a bunch of guys to Kentucky in recent years.
He said he's solid after visiting Alabama. He doesn't get another official to Alabama, but he has demonstrated he'll be a regular at Kentucky the rest of the year.
Alabama should always be taken very seriously on the recruiting trail but they are usually recruiting several elite guys, not just one. I'm sure Alabama would love to have Goodwin, but my belief is it still looks good for Kentucky. But it's definitely a situation worth following.
UK can credibly tell Goodwin that he'll have a chance to compete for a starting tackle spot in the SEC for one of the best offensive lines in the conference over the last several seasons. He may well watch two offensive tackles drafted early next year. The situation just seems to check all the boxes and I've never sensed a ton of concern about where these visits will ultimately lead.
Maybe I'm wrong here. I tend to be very conservative, I just feel strongly about this one taking everything into account. Kentucky's having a tremendous season and Goodwin has had a front row seat for it.
Games with playoff and NY6 ramifications ... This week's college football schedule is loaded with games that will impact Kentucky's ranking and it's case for either the playoff or the New Years Six.
- No. 6 Michigan at No. 8 Michigan State - Two undefeated teams in the Big Ten. I'm not sure losing this game would eliminate either team from the playoff conversation because they both still play Ohio State and would presumably still have a chance to win the Big Ten. But because Ohio State is starting to look like something resembling a juggernaut again, whoever loses this game will have a very difficult time getting into the playoff. And depending on the score, might drop below Kentucky -- if the Cats beat MSU -- when the polls come out.
Michigan State still has Purdue (road), Maryland (home), Ohio State (road), and Penn State (home). The best case for Kentucky would be MSU losing three of its final five games. These will be the biggest tests yet. Michigan has remaining games against Indiana (home), Penn State (road), Maryland (road), and Ohio State (home). Very similar finishes to the season for these divisional and state rivals.
The worst case scenario is that one of these teams lands in the playoff and the other in the NY6. But for right now there is not one obvious better outcome for Kentucky... UK just needs the game to happen and someone to take an L.
LINK: Coach Speak - Dane Key stepping into leadership role this year
-- No. 9 Iowa at Wisconsin - The Hawkeyes are probably not a real playoff contender because the offense is off and the loss to Purdue at home is a bad look especially by 17 points when you look so average. Wisconsin has now won three games in a row and is a 3.5-point favorite in spite of the Hawkeyes being ranked No. 2 before its loss to Purdue. If Wisconsin can take care of business in the Big Ten game then Iowa definitely drops below a 7-1 Kentucky and would be trending out of the New Years Six just like Penn State. Clearing out some of the top of the Big Ten from the conversation would be excellent for Kentucky's New Years Six case.
If Iowa and Penn State are trending down that increases the likelihood that Kentucky ends up in a game against Michigan, Michigan State, or Ohio State in either the Outback, Citrus, or New Years Six.
-- No. 1 Georgia vs Florida - Don't sleep totally on the cocktail party. UGA is a 14-point favorite but that's about as close as it gets for the Dawgs the rest of the way. It's hard to see UGA losing two more regular season games, but if Georgia were to slip up against Florida (stranger things have happened than a 2 TD favorite losing) then the game presumably against Alabama would be a must-win for UGA to get into the playoff. The door to a playoff berth for UK would be cracked a little more. But that's a tall order based on how Florida has looked. It's just away from Athens and that makes it a little more interesting.
-- No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 18 Auburn -- If the Tigers win here (and they are 2.5-point favorites) then they would be 6-2 (3-1) and clearly back in the conversation for a New Years Six Bowl. Ole Miss would be 6-2 (3-2) and also still in New Years Six consideration since its only losses would be on the road to Alabama and Auburn with a very attractive offense. Still, an Ole Miss loss eliminates the Rebels as a playoff contender and a Kentucky still on track for 11-1 would be a notch above both Ole Miss and Auburn in that scenario. UK's remaining schedule would be easier than for either of those teams.
-- No. 20 Penn State at Ohio State -- If OSU lost at home here it would be out of the playoff and that would be very big for Kentucky's CFP chances but the 'Cats would still need some help elsewhere. The Buckeyes are 18.5-point favorites. At the very least an OSU win probably eliminates Penn State from even competing with Kentucky for the any of the good stuff.
-- North Carolina at No. 11 Notre Dame -- UNC has been one of the nation's biggest disappointments this year but the Tar Heels' problem has been wild inconsistency. The ceiling is still there with the offense even if the defense has been bad. ND is only a 3.5-point favorite at home. If UNC could pull the upset in South Bend it would be good for Kentucky's bowl forecast.
