Ten Friday thoughts from Cats Illustrated publisher Justin Rowland just one day before Kentucky hosts LSU in Lexington...
Keys to the game ... Three keys to a Kentucky win against LSU...
1) Skill players must win 1-on-1 matchups. When you're playing LSU you know it's going to be a showcase opportunity for your wide receivers and your defensive backs, because LSU not only churns out those players for the league, but they put them in a position to thrive as athletes. Last year when Kentucky faced elite skill talent -- Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss -- the defense was a lot more mortal in terms of big plays than against other teams. This will be a similar challenge. LSU has not been balanced and they still hit big plays. Matching up with Kayshon Boutte will be difficult.
2) Will Levis must make some plays with his legs. Bo Nix's theatrics in the backfield last week were the stuff of lore and Orgeron just kind of tipped his cap to him after the game. That kind of running backwards, running sideline to sideline, and keeping your eyes upfield is characteristic of Nix but not Levis. These quarterback run yards will come from taking off between the tackles or rolling him out. LSU took some bad angles and got out of rush lanes against Auburn and that will open up some chances for Levis, who's a great athlete and can truck you (or hurdle).
3) Run to set up the pass. Kentucky must establish the run game against LSU. It should be able to do that. That's where the passing game is going to come from. Even with players out and even with bad pass defense numbers so far, LSU has talent in the secondary. More talent than Kentucky has at receiver. Setting up play-action will be key to big plays through the air.
It's decision day for Franklin County RB Kaden Moorman ... And his approach to this whole process has been completely refreshing. For most of the past two decades I have pushed, prodded, bugged, and stressed over who's going where, whether it's going to stick, and other things that shouldn't preoccupy you when you're talking about high schoolers making something as otherwise mundane as a college decision.
Moorman's Power Five offers are from Kentucky and Wisconsin. A couple of CI sources who are familiar with Moorman's game, due to watching him a number of times, are convinced that if he dragged the process out he would end up with a bunch of other offers.
That doesn't really matter to me. Kentucky has done more than fine with running backs just like Moorman. By that I mean running backs who are tough, driven, who are eager to be at Kentucky, and who haven't necessarily been headliners on the national scene.
I don't think you can tell much about Moorman by evaluating him in a traditional recruiting sense. He has done some recruiting travel but he hasn't been at a lot of feature events and coaches couldn't go to his school or games last year. Schools are just now becoming familiar with his game and not many out of state schools are sending someone to Franklin County, outside of their normal recruiting areas.
At the risk of grouping guys together who share nothing in common except being a running back at Kentucky, I have no reason to believe that Moorman won't be the same kind of player as Benny Snell, Chris Rodriguez, and eventually La'Vell Wright. I've said that I would love this commitment because it's the staff trusting their own evaluation and it's a back who should help them double down on an identity that is core to what UK has become under Stoops.
So you're prepared, Moorman will release a video commitment message at 2 p.m. on social media.
I've spoken with Class of 2023 running back JT Smith of North Carolina and he's under the impression that UK is likely to take two players at that position in that cycle. UK doesn't have a '22 running back commitment.
Early '23 recruiting storyline to watch ... Assuming Moorman picks Kentucky, that will be two very early pledges for Kentucky football. Earlier than UK typically gets guys on board. After all, UK is still filling out it's 22 haul. Some programs take a lot of early commitments but Kentucky typically does not. They seem to be going for the more thorough, deliberate approach to make sure they're getting the right guy and the right fit. That's a sign of a program that's in a mature and healthy place.
Again, assuming he picks UK, Moorman would join Frederick Douglass safety Ty Bryant on the Cats' early commitment list. This is smart strategy. Kentucky likes both players so that's not an issue, but the '23 in-state class h as a lot of future power conference players in it. Building as much local early recruiting momentum as possible could set UK up well for the rest of the class, and UK's '23 class is going to be defined largely by what kind of core it gets from the Commonwealth.
The No. 1 reason for concern on Saturday ... Let me start by saying I'm picking Kentucky to win the game. I've picked them in every game this season and won't change for at least one more week.
When I look at these teams on paper and in terms of the dynamics that I normally look at before a game, a 3.5-point line in favor of Kentucky seems low. We saw the Kroger crowd last week. Kentucky is 5-0. LSU already has two losses. LSU's offensive line is a mess and Kentucky just handled UF's powerful rushing attack and the Gators' impressive o-line.
So why is the line so close? Why should you be concerned, or at least a healthy level of "on edge"? Motivation.
Ed Orgeron is not a great football coach even though he has a national championship, but he's a great motivator. He's one of the sport's great motivators. Freddie Maggard noted on social media this week that Orgeron is 14-1 after a loss as LSU's head coach. I mentioned this recently, but seeing last year's Tiger team rally to beat Florida and finish strong was just the latest reminder that Coach O knows how to get guys up and playing for him.
On the other hand, while I don't think you can call LSU a "trap game" for Kentucky
There's a case for LSU as CFB's best coaching position ... I've gone on record stating I believe USC is the best job in CFB. My reasoning for that is the huge local talent base and relative lack of competition for it, the fact that everything is there to win big, and you don't have the shark tank culture that might get you fired on a whim. Coach at USC and you'll be rich, you'll have some time, and you just might win really big.
But there's a case for LSU, too. For most of my young life I grouped LSU in with the likes of UCLA and (then) Clemson as among the most underachieving programs in college football. Louisiana has had talent. There's no other P5 program in the state competing for it. Louisiana kids tend to like to stay in Louisiana when they have the chance. Per capita the state puts out more NFL players than any other state in the country.
But LSU is not that underachieving program anymore. They may be this year, but consider this absolutely wild stat: Since 2003, three different head coaches have won national championships at LSU. That is wild. Ohio State has had a run of three strong hires in a row with Tressel, Meyer, and now Day, but three straight national championship coaches?
Nick Saban forever changed the fortunes of the LSU program, converting it from that underachieving program to a national powerhouse that will probably never again be lacking for talent or potential. And at LSU, unlike some other places, you can still have a bad year. Maybe. One. The point being, there's a tad bit more leash at LSU than at Alabama or maybe even Ohio State. And as we've seen, there's nothing stopping you from absolutely loading up on talent and winning it all.
Link: What we're hearing about 4-star WR Dane Key's recruitment
But why are some Kentucky fans talking about Mark Stoops leaving for another job? ... As I scrolled through social media yesterday (maybe that's my problem) I saw a number of accounts with an interest in Kentucky speculating about Mark Stoops' future. I know Bruce Feldman wrote a story that touched on Stoops' stock possibly taking off after this year. No problem with that story being written. That's his job. But to then angst about a speculative column?
There's no reason to believe Kentucky should worry about Stoops, at least now. Kentucky pays him roughly $5 million a year. His contract is automatically extended when he wins seven games in a season. Some athletics directors might have lost their patience a few years ago when this was struggling to get off the ground.
It's difficult to imagine a coach leaving a situation like that for something other than one of the top two or three jobs in the sport. Now, if Michigan's president were to one day call Stoops' agent, I'm sure a meeting would take place. You almost have to listen when a job like that.
When I was in high school I had a lot of fun talking sports with my school's basketball coach. (We had long-time NBA journeyman/champ P.J. Tucker and Maryland national champ Chris Wilcox together on a team and were pretty good). I was talking to him at one point about whether Kentucky could lure Billy Donovan to Lexington. Once I told him, "I don't think he'd go to Kentucky, he's got a great job now." His response will always stick with me. As a coach, he told me, "Coaches believe they can change the world." The good ones do, or you'd want them to, right?
Kentucky and Mark Stoops are perfect for each other, and he wouldn't be a great fit at a number of "bigger" CFB name positions ... To piggyback off the last point I'll just say that I think Stoops is exactly the kind of coach that Kentucky has needed. I thought they needed a gimmick like Air Raid or option for a long time but what they really needed was someone with enough patience and commitment to process and method that he could outlast other coaches looking to catch lightning in a bottle. In the process, it took long enough that he wasn't a hot enough candidate for a bigger school to hire away.
What Kentucky has needed more than someone who comes in and instantly wins nine or ten games was its own Shane Beamer, Barry Alvarez, etc. A coach that can build a foundation and change the fundamental perception of the program that people around the country have. That's happening.
I just don't think he'd be an ideal fit at Florida State, Michigan, or some of the other places that he's been rumored for. I mentioned this yesterday but I see Stoops as being similar to Tubby Smith in that he plays a style of his sport that would probably not be all that attractive, in theory, to some fans elsewhere. And that is perfectly fine and good for UK, who are more willing to tolerate it because it's improving the program. And at most of the places he has sometimes been rumored as a possible candidate for.
The Iowa position is very interesting to me because Stoops has really turned Kentucky into a program that is very similar to Iowa.
LINK: UK-LSU Visitor List Thread
SEC power rankings before Week 6 ... Here's my stab at an SEC power ranking before this week's games. It's only a snapshot in time and will always fluctuate based on results.
1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Ole Miss
4. Kentucky
5. Florida
6. Auburn
7. Arkansas
8. Mississippi State
9. LSU
10. Texas A&M
11. Tennessee
12. South Carolina
13. Missouri
14. Vanderbilt
The Bulldogs won the last two weeks 99-0 and those who say they might not give up 100 points on the season may very well be correct. It's the best defense I've seen in a long time at least to this point. Alabama is obviously elite and No. 2 not only in the SEC but in the country in my book. And there's not a viable third team that you could put there.
From there it's basically take your pick. I'm probably lower on Arkansas than some, but I just think the Razorbacks caught a couple of teams at a good time and will come back down to earth.
Outcomes that would be good for Kentucky ... If Kentucky gets to 6-0 then we can start to talk about the New Years Six as a real possibility. Even if Kentucky loses it could still very well be in the mix for such a game. (An aside, but saying this game is big for UK's NY6 resume is similar to saying, "If there were an expanded playoff, UK could be in it."
Back in 2018 if Kentucky had defeated Tennessee in Knoxville (it should have, just didn't come to play) then the Cats would have been in a New Years Six bowl game. If UK beats LSU they'll be in a very similar position of strength, just much earlier in the season.
While Kentucky does control its own destiny as an undefeated team we should still be closely following the impact of other games on UK's standing.
Here are some outcomes that would help UK...
Ole Miss-Arkansas ... This game will have a lot of relevance for Kentucky. These are two teams currently in Kentucky's "tier" behind Bama and UGA but ahead of most of the rest of the league. But the interesting thing is, at this point it's hard to say whether it matters if one team or the other wins. Both teams already have a conference loss (UGA and Alabama respectively). The good news is one of these teams will have two losses after this weekend and so Kentucky would have a huge leg up at 6-0. The bad news is the winner is going to have a very high ranking and a very strong resume.
Vanderbilt-Florida ... It would obviously be great if the Dores could knock Florida down another notch in terms of guaranteeing that UK finishes ahead of the Gators in the league standings but the Cats are already two games ahead and there is no way Vandy wins in the Swamp.
Georgia-Auburn ... You could make a case that an Auburn win would be a good thing because it gives UGA a loss, and that could give Kentucky another path to Atlanta. If UK were to lose to UGA then the Dawgs would only need to lose one more game for an 11-1 Kentucky to get to Atlanta. There is also this: The SEC is not going to get three teams into the playoff. If you're harboring playoff aspirations for the Cats, then you need Alabama or Georgia to lose. If Georgia loses this game and then to Alabama, that's two losses and even with a head-to-head win against Kentucky the Dawgs would probably be lower in the CFP rankings. However, if Georgia wins then Auburn has three losses and is significantly behind UK in SEC record, and it would set up a huge game of top-10 undefeated teams next week.
South Carolina-Tennessee ... I'm not sure how much it matters for Kentucky, but if South Carolina pulls an upset as a 10.5-point favorite it would be the best outcome for UK. It would be a sign that UT still has a long way to go.
Alabama-Texas A&M ... See: Georgia. Almost an identical situation. If you believe UK has a shot at the playoff then the best thing is for Alabama to lose. If you think the playoff is unlikely then A&M losing helps, but the Aggies might be bad enough that NY6 just isn't in the cards for them.
National games of note ...
Penn State-Iowa ... This should be a great game. I don't think either of these teams would have any shot against UGA or Bama but the winner is going to have an inside track to the playoff. It's even conceivable that both of these teams end up in an all-Big 10/SEC playoff.
Oklahoma-Texas ... Red River should be a lot of fun. I know everyone has had the "Texas is back" cold take at some point in the last decade but it really does seem like Sarkisian has them rebounding nicely from that early Arkansas loss. OU has been underwhelming this year. They're a very different kind of team than I anticipated they'd be, but are still a playoff contender. If Texas wins it becomes tough for the Big XII to get into the playoff. It would also really shake up this rivalry if Sark won in his first year. This is an SEC game sooner rather than later.
Virginia-Louisville ... Any loss for Louisville now is a good thing for Kentucky later. The less they have to play for the better for UK.
Michigan-Nebraska ... This is a game between two teams that are better than I thought. Maybe Michigan is a pretender. I know they can't beat UGA or Bama. But if the Wolverines win here they are 6-0. This is the best Nebraska has looked in a while. With Scott Frost firmly on the hot seat, they have rebounded from a Week 1 loss to Illinois to win three of their last five, their only two losses to No. 3 OU by seven and No. 20 MSU by three.
