SEASON PREDICTIONS: Rowland's “still too early” game by game predictions
CatsIllustrated.com publisher Justin Rowland takes a stab at making some “still too early” (it's not “way too early” anymore) game-by-game predictions for Kentucky football in 2017.
Note: This is based on a snapshot in time early in fall camp and updated, probably different, game-by-game predictions will appear each week during the regular season.
Kentucky at Southern Miss — Saturday, Sept. 2nd, 4 p.m.
Rowland's prediction: Kentucky (1-0) 38, Southern Miss 24
How and why: On Sunday the players I spoke with were very disciplined in saying this isn't a "revenge game," but this is splitting hairs. Revenge game or not, this game has the players' attention. When you're the more talented, deeper, more experienced team and the opponent has your attention, you've got the edge. To top it off USM is breaking in a new quarterback in their first game of the year. Kentucky was better after this game last season. Southern Miss peaked in this game. The Cats key in better on Ito Smith, absent the same threat of a Golden Eagle passing attack, and USM can't slow down Benny Snell and the UK ground game.
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Eastern Kentucky at Kentucky — Saturday, Sept. 9th, 12 p.m.
Rowland's prediction: Kentucky (2-0) 52, Eastern Kentucky 14
How and why: Kentucky is better than any team the Colonels faced last season. Purdue, a team much inferior to the one the Cats will field in 2017, raced out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter of last year's season opener against EKU. Kentucky should top 300 rushing yards in this game and there's nothing on paper that would suggest the Cats' defense will be seriously challenged.
Kentucky at South Carolina — Saturday, Sept. 16th, 7:30 p.m.
Rowland's prediction: South Carolina 31, Kentucky (2-1) 24
How and why: The South Carolina/Steve Spurrier hex is a relic of the distant past and last year Kentucky got over the Will Muschamp hurdle. Kentucky has won three games in a row in this series but there's not much to take from last year's meeting because both teams changed so drastically. Jake Bentley is a completely different challenge for Kentucky compared to what the Cats faced in last year's matchup and he will be surrounded by an experienced, talented offense. This game could go either way but South Carolina will be amped and eager to break a three-game losing streak to Kentucky and Williams-Brice Stadium should be electric.
Florida at Kentucky — Saturday, Sept. 23rd, Time TBD
Rowland's prediction: Florida 27, Kentucky (2-2) 20
How and why: A lot of people are pointing to this year as the year when Kentucky beats Florida but playing the odds the safe thing to do is to wait for the Cats to break the streak. The Gators' defense is less imposing this season and Kentucky should be able to get more going on the ground this year against UF. They might be able to hit on some things over the top, too. But Florida's skill position talent on offense is impressive and it might be tough to slow down the Gators' running game. UK is much more competitive at Kroger Field than they were in the Swamp last year, however.
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Eastern Michigan at Kentucky — Saturday, Sept. 30th, Time TBD
Rowland's prediction: Kentucky (3-2) 45, Eastern Michigan 27
How and why: Eastern Michigan took a major step forward as a program last year and quarterback Brogan Roback is good enough to put points on the board. However, this is still a team that was dismantled (61-21) by Missouri last season so the Cats should move the ball at ease and even in a worst case scenario should have enough offense to outscore the Eagles. The one thing that's clear about this game is its dynamics will probably be shaped by how the Florida game goes the week before. We just don't know what impact those dynamics will have. Will UK be due for a flat performance if they beat the Gators? A sluggish performance if they lose to Florida? Or will they be riding high at 3-0 going into this game? All tough to say.
Missouri at Kentucky — Saturday, Oct. 7th, Time TBD
Rowland's prediction: Kentucky (4-2) 30, Missouri 24
How and why: This game will not be as lopsided as it was last year in Columbia. Kentucky was a better team than Missouri a year ago, but the gap wasn't as wide as the scoreboard said when the Cats were putting the worst kind of beating on Mizzou. The Tigers will have one of the SEC East's better offenses and it will play better against the Cats this year, but the biggest mismatch on paper is still the Cats' offensive line and ground attack against Missouri's questionable defensive front. Kentucky makes it three in a row against the Tigers.
Kentucky at Mississippi State — Saturday, Oct. 21st, Time TBD
Rowland's prediction: Kentucky (5-2) 28, Mississippi State 24
How and why: Last year's game could have gone either way but it may have helped Kentucky mentally against the Bulldogs. The bigger question is how Kentucky deals with Nick Fitzgerald, the run-pass threat from Mississippi State who's good enough with his legs to shred a defense on the ground. The Bulldogs were very up and down last year but had their bright spots and finished strong. This isn't an easy place for Kentucky to play. I've gone back and forth on this game, but I think Kentucky finally has enough defensive depth and play making to start getting MSU off the field more and preventing those long, back-breaking drives that eat up so much clock and demoralize a team.
Tennessee at Kentucky — Saturday, Oct. 28th, Time TBD
Rowland's prediction: Kentucky 31 (6-2), Tennessee 20
How and why: Tennessee certainly has the talent to win this game and even to crash the party in Atlanta if a few things go right, contrary to what their biggest detractors say. However, the Vols have some real unsettled questions on offense and Kentucky was able to rush for 440 yards in Neyland Stadium a year ago. On paper, this is one of the more favorable Kentucky-Tennessee matchups in quite some time and Kentucky has more leadership and as much play making ability on both sides of the ball as Tennessee plus home field advantage.
Ole Miss at Kentucky — Saturday, Nov. 4th, Time TBD
Rowland's prediction: Kentucky (7-2) 45, Ole Miss 42
How and why: This is getting to the point in the season when defenses are wearing down and depth is being tested. Shea Patterson will have a ton of experience and any NCAA cloud hovering over the Ole Miss program, well, it will still be there but the team will be used to it by this point. The Rebels won't have anything to lose and they're going to be capable of being an explosive team. But Kentucky should be able to score a lot of points on the Rebels and given that they get Ole Miss at home and have an experienced, junior- and senior-laden team, the Cats get the edge.
Kentucky at Vanderbilt — Saturday, Nov. 11th, Time TBD
Rowland's prediction: Kentucky (8-2) 20, Vanderbilt 16
How and why: Nothing has happened in this series in recent years that should lead you to believe this is going to be a cakewalk. Late in the season, you can already imagine it's going to be chilly, windy and an ugly day of football with low passer ratings, lots of punts and a stadium full of people who are wondering why they're enduring the conditions and the style of play. Ralph Webb is concerning but Kentucky is a veteran team, will be playing for a lot, and has more mental toughness than some of those recent UK teams that would have lost this contest. Kentucky has more playmakers.
Kentucky at Georgia — Saturday, Nov. 18, Time TBD
Rowland's prediction: Georgia 38, Kentucky (8-3) 17
How and why: Georgia slowed down Kentucky's rush game a little better than some other opponents late last season and the Bulldogs, with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, have the perfect recipe to exploit the Cats' defense. However Kentucky improves this year on defense, it's tough to imagine UGA not having a decided advantage on the ground, and it's tough to imagine the Bulldogs not sticking with what works.
Louisville at Kentucky — Saturday, Nov. 25, Time TBD
Rowland's prediction: Kentucky (9-3) 34, Louisville 31
How and why: Lamar Jackson enters this season with less hype than any returning Heisman winner than maybe anyone, ever, and he's going to prove some doubters wrong. But late in the season in cold conditions against a Kentucky defense with speed, depth and linebacker talent like it's seldom had, the Cards will have to become a lot more than just the Lamar Jackson show to do whatever it wants on offense. Kentucky should be able to get pressure and the Cards defense should be taking a step back this year, so UK should be able to run the ball effectively.