Everyone's filling out brackets and talking matchups so the Cats Illustrated staff takes their discussion to the familiar roundtable.
What are your thoughts on Kentucky's overall draw in the 2019 NCAA Tournament? Did the committee get it right?
Jeff Drummond: It's our annual rite of passage. We gather around our TVs on Selection Sunday and await what we know is coming: Kentucky will be placed in the toughest region of the NCAA Tournament. That, of course, will always be debatable, but John Calipari isn't having any of your arguments to the contrary. There is a fairly strong track record to back him up. Everyone who's been paying attention knew that UK would be a No. 2 seed and was either going to be placed opposite of the team that looked the best for most of the season (Duke) or the team that beat that team twice and looked like perhaps the best team toward the end of the season (North Carolina).
It turned out to be the Tar Heels, who Kentucky seems to see in March on an annual basis lately. Their presence alone makes this a pretty challenging region, but you also have seven of the top 21 teams in the NCAA's new NET rankings -- Houston, UK, UNC, Wofford, Auburn, Kansas and Iowa State. That's not even counting the Cats' potential second-round opponent, Seton Hall, who has already beaten UK once this season, 84-83 in overtime on December 8 in Madison Square Garden. The chance to avenge that loss may actually work in UK's favor, but there are three other opponents (UNC, Kansas, Auburn) who would will be licking their chops to get another shot at Big Blue. That's an added layer of difficulty, from my point of view, especially if you consider the Jayhawks would be playing at "home" in Kansas City if they advance that far.
Houston (31-3) is the team that should be of greatest concern. The Cougars haven't gotten as much attention as most of the top seeds this season, but Kelvin Sampson's team is a legit threat to reach the Final Four. They are 24th in offensive efficiency and 13th in defensive efficiency, according to Ken Pomeroy's metrics. That is a really dangerous team, and UK would have to see them in the third round if both advance. You're talking about a really tough matchup prior to the regional final.
Travis Graf: I think you can argue that Kentucky got a better draw than they would’ve if they earned a number one seed. The main thing a lot of people wanted was to avoid Duke and they did that. Michigan State’s win in the Big Ten tournament awarded the Spartans with a potential showdown with the Blue Devils, while Kentucky drew North Carolina as their 1. Even though you could make the argument that a few 2 seeds had a better resumé than North Carolina, I didn’t have a problem with how the teams were seeded on the 1-2 lines. The committee showed once again that recency bias wins out over the big picture of the whole season, however. If you look at the Midwest Region, I think it’s set up for the Cats to make a run and there’s definitely not a team that you see and feel terrified to play. North Carolina has been one of the hottest teams in the country over the past month, but Kentucky matches up very well with the Tar Heels if both teams were to meet in the Elite 8. A second round matchup with either Wofford or Seton Hall could be a cause for concern. Wofford is second in the country in 3 point percentage, shooting 42% as a team and featuring one of college basketball’s all-time great shooters in Fletcher Magee. Magee takes and makes a lot of three’s, hitting about 5 of 11 per game. This doesn’t necessarily bode well for the Cats, who have been atrocious at guarding the 3 point line for the majority of the season. Kentucky already knows all about Seton Hall, having lost to them earlier in the season. Myles Powell is one of the elite scorers who can carry a team in March and he absolutely torched the Cats once this season. If Kentucky gets past Seton Hall or Wofford without a slip up, I look for the Cats to make it out of the region. I think I’m the only one in the country who isn’t a big believer in this Houston team.
Warren Taylor: Kentucky was one the line for a 1-seed or a 2-seed for most of the last month. With the losses to LSU and Tennessee, the Cats were clearly the third best team in a rugged SEC this season. Any other year and a third-place finish would have sunk the Cats in terms of seeding. I think the strength of the league this season helped Kentucky more than it hurt it. So in that regard, I think the committee got Kentucky's seeding correct. The regions this year are a mess in terms of who should have gone where and ended up somewhere that made literally no sense. Again, it could be worse for the Cats, they could be Michigan State and slated to play Duke in the Elite 8 potentially. They could also be the North Carolina Tar Heels and potentially have the road of a good Utah State team in the Round of 32, a hot Auburn team in the Sweet 16 or a Sweet 16 matchup against Kansas in the heart of Jayhawk Country.
For Kentucky, the road to the Elite 8 looks manageable. John Calipari's team should handle Abilene Christian Thursday evening. Saturday might be a bit trickier. Wofford and Seton Hall are capable of getting hot from deep, the Cats most glaring weakness all season, but in either matchup, Kentucky's defense and interior play gives them the edge. It is entirely possible that the Round of 32 will be easier for Kentucky than the Sweet 16. Houston or Iowa State should be waiting on the Cats if they make it to Kansas City. Both are well-coached squads, but again the head-to-head easily goes to Kentucky. Facing North Carolina in the Elite 8, again, won't be an easy task but Kentucky beat the Heels once this season and can do it again. Honestly, I'd worry more about facing Auburn for a third time if I were the Kentucky coaching staff.
David Sisk: It's hard for me to say if they got it right or not when they start comparing one's and two's. I agree with John Calipari, the matchups are more important than whether or not you get a one or two. I think we all had a pretty good idea who the four top seeds would be and who would be the next four.
Another thing I agree with Coach Cal on is the committee should use the "S curve." That makes it more transparent. If you're the lowest one, you could play the top five. If anyone has a gripe, it is probably Michigan State. They sweep Michigan all three games and get rewarded with Duke while the Wolverines get Gonzaga. Having said that, I will contradict myself by saying I think the West is the toughest region one through four overall. We all pretty well knew that when Kentucky got beaten on Saturday they wouldn't get a one seed. So I have no gripes on that end. The first two rounds set up nicely. They will be locked in this time against Seton Hall in a game that will have their attention or the nation's darling, Wofford. The Terriers might keep in interesting for a while, but Kentucky just has different dudes. They have proven they guard very well against smaller, finesse teams who can shoot. They will have to bring the lunch pail against Houston. They have been one of my favorite teams to watch the past two seasons. I love Kelvin Sampson and the way that team plays with a chip on their shoulder. Now that brings us to North Carolina. If they could catch Auburn like they were on Sunday, it could be an SEC quarterfinal. Both the Tar Heels and Cats have improved greatly since December. I just believe in that matchup that P.J. Washington is too much for Luke Maye and Ashton Hagans was a huge disruptor in the first meeting.
The rounds of sixteen and then eight will be tough. But I fully believe this team is plenty good enough to get through that and make their way to the Final Four.
Justin Rowland: I think the committee did a good job overall with the brackets. The only thing that didn't make sense to me, big picture, was Michigan State "passing" Kentucky in the overall seed rankings and drawing Duke in the East Region. I felt that getting Duke anywhere other than Louisville would be the worst case scenario that Kentucky would be better off avoiding, and anything else would be acceptable.
Should Kentucky have been in Louisville rather than Tennessee? I can see the committee going the other way. Losing the rubber match the Vols is one factor. But then you have to consider whether Kentucky did enough to secure the third and fourth rounds in Louisville, and whether it would have been fair to one seed Virginia to have to go through a wildly pro-Kentucky crowd in a hypothetical matchup when they would be the higher seeded team. I understand why the committee put Kentucky with North Carolina in the Midwest.
Overall, I think it's a good draw for Kentucky. I wouldn't sleep on Wofford as a potential trouble maker and Houston is no slouch. That would be a war between two athletic, scrappy teams and it would be close.
But I actually think potentially getting UNC in Kansas City is a positive. It would be a split crowd and UK seems to match up pretty well with the Heels. While they're playing well, UK's frontcourt presents some challenges for North Carolina.
