Nobody expects Kentucky to lose its first round game against underdog and feel-good story Abilene Christian, but there's certainly a bit of a history of wild upsets in the tournament so every team has to be on guard.
The Cats Illustrated staff discusses Thursday night's game here below.
Are there any reasons Kentucky should be on upset alert?
Jeff Drummond: Even with speculation swirling that All-American forward PJ Washington may sit out the Wildcats' first-round matchup with Abilene Christian, it's hard for me to envision a scenario in which UK should legitimately be placed on upset alert. The Cats will still have the top five players on the floor at any time in this game, including a couple of guys coming off the bench. Probably the same thing Virginia thought last year, right? Maybe. But Kentucky still puts more pro-level talent on the floor than the Cavaliers did when they were shocked as a No. 1 seed by No. 16 UMBC last year. With the 3-point line, this could be a much closer game than anyone expects, but I don't think ACU will have answers for UK's size and length across the board.
Warren Taylor: I'm confident that Kentucky will win their opening round game, but it's March and crazy things can happen. Abilene Christian has nothing to lose here. If they play a patient game, dictate the pace and make 3-pointers they have a chance to shock the world. If P.J. Washington is hobbled, he may struggled, and when Washington struggles Kentucky often struggles on offense.
David Sisk: There is no reason to think and upset can happen on Thursday. KenPom gives the Cats a 93 percent chance to win tomorrow, which is the third highest likelihood on the sixteen games that will be played. The talent level just isn't there. Abilene Christian does some things well, but they came against low and mid-major teams. They were thrashed by the one ranked team they played. Texas Tech beat them 82-48.
Travis Graf: By Cal confirming the reports surrounding PJ Washington and his foot today at the open practice, there’s cause for concern that the sophomore forward could definitely not be 100%. When an injury affects the star of your team, a trickle down effect could occur even if he does play but isn’t quite himself. The rest of the roster would have to adjust their play a little bit to make up for his lost production, causing minor setbacks in the team’s chemistry. If PJ isn’t quite himself, it’s a hard task to tweak your game plan in the middle of an NCAA Tournament game, regardless of the opponent’s strength. Abilene Christian brings a 39% three point field goal percentage (good for 17th nationally) to the table, which happens to be Kentucky’s Kryptonite on defense. Four out of five starters shoot 38% or better from beyond the arc. Another key stat for the Wildcats is that they pressure their opponent into a ton of turnovers, coming into the first round matchup ranked 12th in the country in steals. For a backcourt that’s going to be working through first tournament game jitters, Kentucky must stay poised against Abilene Christian’s on-ball defense and make crisp passes around the perimeter.
Justin Rowland: The odds are stacked heavily against ACU pulling the upset in this game, not only because of the history between 2 seeds and 15 seeds, but because of the matchup. While John Calipari is right, that ACU hits threes at an impressive rate, they don't shoot a lot of them. UK probably won't deal with a flurry in quick succession. Dynamic is not ACU's calling card. What Kentucky should be a little concerned about is how ACU will work to shorten the game and how they can really get after it on defense. As long as Kentucky protects the basketball and doesn't give ACU a lot of points off turnovers, I don't see this as an upset watch matchup.
What's your prediction for the game and who will be the Wildcats' MVP?
Drummond: Kentucky 74, Abilene Christian 55 - The Lone Star Wildcats, of the purple shade, will attempt to slow this one down to a crawl and hope they can bury a baker's dozen 3s, but I don't see UK allowing that to happen. The Cats win this one comfortably as Reid Travis comes up big in the paint in his first NCAA Tournament appearance.
Taylor: Kentucky 76, Abilene Christian 62. I think Kentucky may struggle to score early due to nerves but they will focus late in the first half and put the Wildcats from Texas down for the count. Keldon Johnson and Tyler Herro will pick up Washington's scoring lead, and in the process will put the game out of reach early in the second half.
Sisk: My prediction is Kentucky 76 Abilene Christian 54. I can see ACU holding the score down for awhile until they become overwhelmed. They do have good defensive technique, and are bought in on that end of the floor. Despite that, the Cats are too big and I look for them to point the offensive boards with put backs and run the break off defensive rebounds.
I think there is a good reason to pick any starter as MVP because that individual will have an advantage with their matchup. I'll go with Tyler Herro again. He has become deadly when he can get in space. The reason he usually does that when he goes up against less physical guards.
Graf: 80-55 Kentucky. Abilene Christian just doesn’t have the horses or size to match up with Kentucky for a full forty minute contest. Kentucky dominates the glass, as the other Wildcats come into this game ranked outside the top 250 in total rebounding. Keldon Johnson paces the Cats with 20, giving himself a good start for the tournament in which Kentucky needs him to step up every night.
Rowland: Kentucky 76, ACU 58. It wouldn't surprise me to see a motivated Abilene Christian team hang around for part of the first half but it's almost impossible to envision Kentucky not pulling away because of size and the Cats' halfcourt defense. Reid Travis makes a stellar debut in the NCAA Tournament.
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