Ranking Kentucky's football games in order of difficulty

We've reached that point on the calendar where most of the summer's recruiting activity is in the books (though the July 4th holiday always brings some recruiting fireworks, as it has recently), and that means the conversation is about to shift to real college football action.

Before camp gets started, Cats Illustrated publisher Justin Rowland takes a look at Kentucky's 2023 football schedule and breaks it down by ranking the games in order of difficulty.

A range of factors are considered, from talent to homefield advantage, trap game potential and, yes, history.

12. Eastern Kentucky (September 9th)

Always go with the FCS opponent. There's a lot of goodwill here with former UK assistant Walt Wells as head coach of the Colonels. EKU was 7-5 last season.

11. Akron (September 16th)

Given Kentucky's record in non-conference games under Mark Stoops in recent years (16 straight in the regular season), all three of these games listed first should be Wildcat wins. Akron isn't considered a strong contender in the MAC and Kentucky should be 2-0 coming in still playing for a lot.

10. Ball State (September 2nd)

This game gets the nod as slightly tougher than the Akron contest, although those teams look fairly similar in strength, and that's because its the first game of the year so Kentucky will probably not be a finished product and the coaches don't know what to expect.

9. at Vanderbilt (September 23rd)

Don't pencil this in as an automatic win. Not after last year. If you thought Kentucky had moved beyond a toe-stubbing, last year was a wake-up call. Kentucky should be improved and this game is in Nashville, but Kentucky should be 3-0 and playing for a lot. This game is much earlier than it typically is, and Mark Stoops' teams play very well in September. Expect Kentucky to come in looking for revenge and there should be a strong segment of the Big Blue Nation evening out the crowd situation in Nashville.

8. at Louisville (November 25th)

At this point you have to take the last several years of results into account, but the Jeff Brohm era has begun and one thing we know about him is that his Purdue teams proved themselves capable of punching up against superior opponents. Louisville should have a solid defense and the Cardinals have a very manageable schedule, so they could be playing for something at the end of Brohm's first season. It's a good sign for UK that the Wildcats were able to continue their dominance of Louisville even without their typical dominance in the trenches.

7. Missouri (October 14th)

This has become one of the most competitive games on Kentucky's schedule with the Cats holding the upper hand for most of the recent series games. Last year Kentucky again eeked out a close win against the Tigers, 21-17 in Columbia, and that was during one of their tougher stretches of the season, sandwiched between losses to Tennessee and Vanderbilt. Kentucky has won four games in a row in Lexington against Missouri.

6. Florida (September 30th)

Stoops has really reversed Kentucky's fortunes in this series to the point where the Wildcats may well be the Vegas betting favorite against the Gators in this game. It's in Lexington and UK has won two games in a row against the Gators for the first time in a very long time. UK has won three of the last five games in this series. We'll get to see Devin Leary vs. Graham Mertz as well. Florida has an absolute gauntlet of a schedule so this is a huge game for Billy Napier and you can bet the Gators will come in with a lot of energy.

5. at South Carolina (November 18th)

It's too early to tell how this season is going to go for the Gamecocks. Shane Beamer did an undeniably good job last year. You could have written off the win against Kentucky because Will Levis was out, but when South Carolina boat raced Tennessee, won at Clemson, and played a hot Notre Dame team tough in the Gator Bowl it was clear they had turned a corner, at least for a year. This comes during a much harder stretch on the schedule for Kentucky than for South Carolina as well. The good news is Kentucky has played well in Columbia under Mark Stoops. The game is much later on the calendar than it typically has been.

4. at Mississippi State (November 4th)

With Zach Arnett taking over as head coach following the passing of legendary coach Mike Leach, most will expect the Bulldogs to finish toward the bottom of the SEC West. Leach did a good job in Starkville, with the obvious trend for Kentucky fans being that Mark Stoops' teams haven't fared well in SEC West road games. This is an SEC West road game, so it has to rank very high on the list. UK won't be a big talent disadvantage in this game but the home team has won the last eight contests in this series. This game is also sandwiched between UK's games against Tennessee and Alabama, both in Lexington. It won't be easy. UK has lost 15 road games against SEC West opponents in a row. Ranking this game fourth is more about the venue and history than the opponent, however.

3. Tennessee (October 28th)

On paper, this game looks a lot more manageable than the game last year, when the Volunteers were really rolling with Hendon Hooker at quarterback and the Cats had to go to Neyland. Joe Milton brings a world of potential and the Volunteers will be predicted to finish second in the SEC East, so expect Kentucky to be an underdog. However, recently the series has been very competitive especially in Lexington. The last two times here UT has beaten Kentucky 45-42 and 17-13 with UK winning the time before that.

2. Alabama (November 11th)

The Big Blue Nation doesn't get to see the Crimson Tide in Lexington very often. Alabama hasn't been to Lexington since Mark Stoops' first season in 2013 and the Tide has only been here three times since Tim Couch's electrifying 40-34 win over Bama. There seem to be more questions about this Alabama team than others we've seen over the past 10-15 years, but it's still a prime national championship contender.

1. at Georgia (October 7th)

What else could you put here? Kentucky has the bad fortune on taking on the best program in college football every year. The Bulldogs have won two national championships in a row and once again have a very manageable schedule so a three-peat is certainly on the table for Kirby Smart. UK has played UGA about as tough as any team out there with recent scores being 16-6, 30-13, and 14-3. But getting over the hump, especially Between the Hedges, would take a herculean effort.