Previewing CFB's Week 4
We're going to learn a lot about the national and SEC landscape this weekend.
Week 4 has plenty of marquee matchups after a Week 3 that was a little weak. Here's what to watch for from CI publisher Justin Rowland, with one eye on what it all means for the Wildcats.
Ohio State-ND in South Bend ... The biggest game of the week is in South Bend, where two playoff contenders go head-to-head in the kind of game that's good for the sport. Ohio State is a three-point favorite on the road but my pick is Notre Dame. The Irish are playing like a team and a program with a lot of momentum right now. Pairing Sam Hartmann with a lot of the long-standing good traits for ND under Brian Kelly and now Marcus Freeman has been a good thing. It's at home under the lights and OSU's offense hasn't looked great at times this year. The winner of this game is instantly a favorite to reach the playoffs.
Urban Meyer's comments ... If you're on social media this week you might have seen former OSU and UF coach Urban Meyer criticize the schedules for Michigan and Georgia this year. Frankly, he's right. Those teams should play a marquee out of conference game, although at least in Michigan's case they still have to play Penn State and Ohio State. Georgia has as much of a cakewalk as an SEC team could possibly have. This game is great for the sport and I wish we could see almost all P5-P5 games. We're going to get a lot more of them in the expanded playoff era.
Iowa in Happy Valley ... Iowa is ranked in the top-25 but the Hawkeyes are a 15-point underdog at Penn State. Once again, Iowa's offense is terrible. The Hawkeyes are 130th out of 131 teams in the country on offense. And yet, they're undefeated after another win against Iowa State. Drew Allar is having a fantastic year for Penn State. The Nittany Lions are one of my favorite teams in college football this year and I think they are national championship contenders - no hyperbole!
Lane Kiffin needs to beat Alabama ... It doesn't seem fair to say the coach at Ole Miss "needs" to beat Alabama given how the Nick Saban era has gone. That might be overstated because Kiffin will still be in good graces in Oxford even if Alabama wins by two touchdowns. But Ole Miss has the quarterback advantage and has looked like one of the SEC's better teams in this young season while Alabama lost to Texas at home by 10 points and then struggled in a 17-3 win against USF. Jalen Milroe returns and his mental state after being benched will be key to the Tide's chances. If Alabama loses here it could be a big-time down season for the Tide. If they win, they're still not out of the playoff conversation, although they'd still have a tough climb.
An Ole Miss win at Bama would put the Rebels in great shape for NY6 bowl. Hugh Freeze beat Alabama twice when he was at Ole Miss.
Speaking of Hugh ... Another SEC West headliner is Auburn at Texas A&M. The Aggies have looked very good in its games against weaker foes, but when they took on Miami it didn't go so well. What's the real Texas A&M? The Aggies are 8.5-point favorites against an Auburn team that barely beat Cal when it had to travel west in its second game.
We're going to know a lot more about the SEC West after this weekend. My tentative expectation is that LSU is the best team in the division with Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M as the three next best teams in the league and then Auburn, Arkansas, and Mississippi State the bottom three, but we'll see.
Clemson unranked when Florida State comes to town ... It's the biggest game in the ACC. At least it looks like it will be. This game is as odd as it gets in one respect: Florida State is only a 2-point road favorite against an unranked Clemson team. Granted, FSU struggled at Boston College last weekend, but that could easily be a one-off. It appears as though Vegas knows that Clemson is going to turn out to be a really good team this year, in spite of their loss to Duke. Besides, if Duke is worthy of its current ranking on the basis of beating Clemson, isn't Clemson probably one of the top-25 teams in the country?
Back to the game: It's a huge one. If Florida State wins that's one more hurdle cleared on its path to a national semifinal appearance. The Seminoles would have a win against LSU and a win at Clemson only four weeks into the season.
Jim Harbaugh out for one more game ... Michigan shouldn't have much trouble with Rutgers this weekend, although the Wolverines still have something to prove on offense. Rutgers is a 24-point underdog and the way Michigan's defense clamps down on opponents it's tough to see UM on upset watch. Then when Harbaugh returns you can expect a jolt that could carry this team a long way.
LSU hosts Arkansas ... Jayden Daniels was 30/34 passing in a blowout win at Mississippi State last week. If LSU dominates Arkansas at home, and they're 17.5-point favorites, then the Tigers will rightfully be considered favorites in the West. Arkansas had that huge collapse late against BYU and they always circle this game. It will be interesting to see if the Hogs can keep it close into the second half.
Speaking of BYU ... The Cougars are 9.5-point underdogs to Kansas and that's pretty shocking coming off a win at Arkansas. It's not a vintage BYU team and Vegas seems to believe that. On the other hand, Kansas looks like one of the most well-coached teams in college football. Beat BYU and they're off to a 4-0 start as a possible upper echelon team in the Big 12.
More big matchups out West ... It's been a great year for the Pac-12. They've played great out of conference games and there's a big slate of conference matchups this week and beyond.
Colorado is ranked No. 19 and 3-0 but the Buffaloes are 21-point underdogs playing at No. 10 Oregon. That's a game that will tell us a lot. Colorado has been impressive so far, at least in some respects, but this is a different test altogether. Colorado State really controlled the game against CU and played the kind of game it wanted to play. This week, that's the kind of game Colorado needs to play against Oregon. They'll have to get creative and possess the ball to keep Bo Nix and that electric unit off the field.
The Pac-12 also gives us No. 22 UCLA against No. 11 Utah this week. The Utes have avoided their early-season toe stubbing and both teams are undefeated.
Carson Steele transferring from Ball State has given UCLA some great offensive balance early in the year but Utah's defense will be a big test.
Intriguing Pacific Northwest tilt ... How often have Oregon State and Washington State both been ranked when they've played? These teams are usually in the shadows of their more famous, typically more successful in-state rivals, but they're both undefeated and Wazzu is coming off a big win over Wisconsin at home.
Another big game for Neal Brown ... WVU head coach Neal Brown got a massive win in the Backyard Brawl, 17-6, against Pitt last week. If he can follow that with a win at home against Texas Tech as a 6-point underdog you may be able to tentatively take him off the hot seat. While Brown hasn't been able to get WVU to that next level yet the bottom has also never fallen out so I have never passed judgment on the kind of coach he can be at the Power Five level.
Mississippi State at South Carolina ... It seems like the SEC East has won more of these inter-divisional games against the West than it did for a very long time and this is a perfect opportunity for a South Carolina team badly in need of a quality win. The Gamecocks played very admirably Between the Hedges but they haven't exactly been a complete team this year, nor have they sustained a high level of play for 60 minutes. Mississippi State was embarrassed at home by LSU so they have a lot to play for as well. This is an intriguing game in spite of neither team being ranked. Will Rogers was only 11/28 through the air last week.
UNC at Pitt ... North Carolina lost offensive coordinator Phil Longo and has moved to more of a balanced offensive attack. The defense has also improved. Drake Maye passed for more than 400 yards last week in a win against Minnesota. They did things that are rarely done to the Gopher defense under PJ Fleck. With Pitt losing to WVU last week and the offense only putting up six points, UNC is the rightful favorite here but this is a dangerous road game for them. It could go either way.
UCF at K-State ... UCF is only a 4-point underdog to Kansas State, which lost a close one to Missouri last week. That says a lot about the job Gus Malzahn is doing there. The Knights are undefeated. Kansas State is actually a really solid team but they need to bounce back with a win because Big 12 play always gets messy and few teams are exempt.