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Published Apr 7, 2017
Kentucky has a realistic path to contention for a ninth championship
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Justin Rowland  •  CatsIllustrated
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In spite of some way-too-early preseason rankings that recently seemed way-too-generous, most people who follow Kentucky basketball closely have realized that John Calipari has some work to do to ensure that his team has a realistic shot at pushing for the program's ninth championship in 2017-18.

Fortunately for Calipari and Kentucky fans, it's now clear that the Cats have a plausible path to contention.

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Championships are won on the court, specifically in March and early April in the sport's win or go home tournament format, but they're won in part during the offseason when rosters are put together.

That's true in this era more than ever before, with more one-and-done players, graduate transfers and roster turnover than any other period in college basketball history.

On paper, there has long been reason for some optimism when it comes to next year's Kentucky basketball team. There almost always is, in a best-case scenario, based simply on the amount of talent Calipari brings to Lexington year in and year out.

There's always been the possibility that Sacha Killeya-Jones could make big improvements. Bam Adebayo has left open the door to a return. And the Cats have another banner recruiting class headlined by big-time talents like Quade Green, Jarred Vanderbilt, P.J. Washington and Nick Richards. Oh, and lest you forget about five-star early enrollee Hamidou Diallo ... well, don't forget about him, because he could be really, really good.

Still, there's a shooting void, at least on paper. And as good as Kentucky's incoming class is, it seems to lack the same level of top-end talent of some previous UK classes.

Given that most people expect Adebayo to remain in the draft, the uncertainty when it comes to the impact next season's freshmen will make, and the possibility that Wenyen Gabriel and/or Isaac Humphries could still decide to leave the program (time will tell), there are plenty of questions about Kentucky, and plenty of reasons to criticize some of the more generous rankings from ESPN, The Sporting News and other outlets.

But now there's a plausible path to an elite team

While not everyone believes that five-star big man Mohamed Bamba is leaning to Kentucky (some think it's Texas), everyone seems to believe that Kentucky is one of his top two choices. Given Calipari's track record, it would be unwise to count him out, and it might even be unwise to bet against him.

If Kentucky were to add Bamba, as it has long been speculated they could, that would give the program its best rim-protector since the 2014-15 season when Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein patrolled the paint in platoon form.

Bamba, coupled with Killeya-Jones, Washington and potentially Gabriel and/or Humphries, would give Kentucky one of the nation's top frontcourts and a defensive presence that could make the Cats among the nation's best teams on that end of the court. He would make a team that should be long and athletic even more long and athletic, and he would give the incoming class the kind of undeniable one-and-done, top-end talent that some say it lacks.

But recent offers to four-star Edwardsville, Ill., guard and ex-Pitt guard Cam Johnson have changed the outlook even more.

It's not a surprise that Calipari is moving aggressively to address next year's backcourt situation. With Fox, Briscoe, Monk, Dominique Hawkins and Mychal Mulder all departing, it would have been foolish to assume Kentucky would go into the season with only Green, Diallo and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the backcourt.

All indications are that Kentucky is a strong contender for Smith, who is a quality shooter, a Rivals150 prospect and an increasingly hot commodity. He hosted Missouri coach Cuonzo Martin on an in-home visit on Thursday night and the Tigers figure to be among the Cats' biggest contenders. Still, Kentucky would seem to have a good shot.

Given Calipari's past comments about graduate transfers, it would seem that he wouldn't pursue one (such as Johnson) unless he felt like he had a really good chance to land him.

Rivals.com's Corey Evans first reported that Kentucky was one of the many schools that has offered Johnson, and there seems to be an emerging sense that the Cats have a really good chance with the former Pitt guard. He can play right away and has two years of eligibility, and the guard, who shot 42-percent from deep last season, would seem to have guaranteed instant playing time at Kentucky. And he would seem to perfectly fill a void.\

If Kentucky were to land Johnson, Bamba and Smith, it would instantly make Kentucky, undeniably, one of the leading contenders to win the 2017-18 national championship. You could even make the case, with a straight face, that Kentucky should be number one. And nobody, aside from the people doing ridiculous way-too-early rankings recently, really believed that was going to be the case.

Even if Kentucky were to land just two of the three (especially if the two are Johnson and Bamba, but really any combination of the two that includes Bamba or Johnson), it would dramatically change the outlook for next year's Cats.

Then again, maybe recent events should be a reminder to never count Calipari out or assume that he's down.

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