Kentucky basketball season predictions

The college basketball season is here and Kentucky tips off tonight against Howard as the No. 4 team in the nation.

Before basketball gets under way Cats Illustrated writers share their predictions for Kentucky's season.

Where should Kentucky be ranked in the preseason?

Jeff Drummond: I think somewhere in the top five is probably about right at this time. Until we see some teams play in real games, it might be hard to differentiate between those spots. The Cats kind of hold the trump card in Oscar Tshiebwe when he returns to full health. No one else can boast a player that productive.

Travis Graf: If I was doing my own personal preseason rankings, I think I’d have this team second behind Houston. I’m bullish on both programs this season, and I’m lower on North Carolina and Gonzaga than most as well. Kentucky has a roster without many holes or weaknesses throughout, and their elite length should save them on the nights when shots aren’t falling. If the Wildcats can stay healthy, look for them to remain as one of the top handful of teams throughout the season.

David Sisk: Anywhere in the top three or four. North Carolina, Gonzaga, Baylor, Houston should also be very good. But handicapping teams in order without seeing them play is impossible. Nevertheless, this looks like a really strong Kentucky roster.

Justin Rowland: I'd have them No. 1, but you can't fault any ranking inside the top five. The floor for this group is pretty high. It's a high floor, high ceiling group and there aren't too many of those teams out there.

How many regular season losses will Kentucky have?

Drummond: I'm going to say five. One or two in non-conference play and three or four during the SEC slate. The league is really tough again this year. I don't see anyone navigating the schedule with fewer than three or four losses. The big key to landing a No. 1 seed in March may be navigating the non-conference games with no more than one L.

Graf: I’ll go with three regular season losses this year on paper as a healthy team. I believe Kentucky will lose on the road against Tennessee, on the road at Alabama or Arkansas, and drop one random conference game to a team they shouldn’t lose to. On paper, Kentucky should be able to roll for most of the season.

Sisk: Four to five regular season losses. Road woes at Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Arkansas, plus they will drop one of three tough matchups: UCLA, Michigan, or Alabama in Tuscaloosa.

Rowland: I'll say they split with Michigan State and Gonzaga, then lose one more non-conference game. I see 14-4 in the SEC with a conference tournament championship. So I'm right there at 5-6 losses, which is a strong 1 seed candidate because of the schedule strength.

How far will Kentucky make it in the tournament?

Drummond: Final Four. The Cats are due. With a strong blend of veterans and elite recruits, including the reigning national player of the year, John Calipari has to get this team back to the Final Four. I picked this for last year's team, thinking it would be the perfect follow-up story to missing the tourney the previous year. Oops. Thanks, Saint Peters. But I'll double-down on that, saying it's the perfect sequel to getting ousted in the first round.

Graf: I think this team has Final Four potential, but it’s going to require health and luck, just like with any team in the tournament. Kentucky has depth, length, and shooting, and has upgraded or maintained every position from a year ago when they were the best team in the country for a stretch before they were bitten by the injury bug. A healthy CJ Fredrick is the main thing Kentucky needs to wish for as they enter the tournament, because he’s a difference maker at that point in time.

Sisk: If I really, really like a team I say Elite Eight. There are several tremendous rosters that could make claims for the Final Four. Probably more than four, but this group can fit comfortably into the quarterfinals. Kentucky is one of these teams. You get to that next to last weekend, and then you’re one game away where anything is possible. Kentucky is good enough to realistically have those aspirations.

Rowland: Here's the thing about making college basketball season predictions: You're probably not going to get it right, because it's just a lot harder to guess how the tournament will play out than it is to predict the College Football Playoff. So the best I can do is pick the team that I think looks best on paper to win the title, assuming there aren't other circumstances to consider. I think Kentucky looks better than any team in the country on paper when everybody is healthy. I think they have more legit pieces, better team balance, and more ways to beat you than any other team. I expect once again, Kentucky will have a team that looks like the best in the country, and fans have to hope the peak happens at a better time. For that reason, Kentucky is my pick to win the '22-23 national championship, and anything less than a Final Four would be a disappointment because of how long it has been. That's a high bar but I think the take holds up. M ore often than not I've found myself predicting the Elite Eight for Kentucky, but compared to the field out there this year, I like their team.