Kentucky has one more exhibition game before the real action starts next week against Duke on Tuesday in New York.
Cats Illustrated writers Justin Rowland, Jeff Drummond, Travis Graf, and David Sisk offer their predictions for the season, Kentucky and beyond, in this college basketball roundtable.
What are the biggest reasons for Kentucky fans to be excited about this upcoming season?
Jeff Drummond: A large portion of the Kentucky fan base has long hoped that John Calipari would develop a more traditional roster that features some older, experienced players to go along with the elite recruits that everyone craves. Through the magic of the transfer portal and the NCAA’s relaxed rules, they got their wish. And these guys aren’t just bench pieces (like most of the older players he’s had in the past). You’ve got last year’s leading returning scorer, last year’s leading returning rebounder, a 2,000-point career scorer, a pair of P5 all-conference performers, and a dead-eye shooter. It will be interesting to see what Calipari can do with the most veteran-laden roster he’s ever had in Lexington.
VIDEO: Cats prepare for final exhibition tune up
Justin Rowland: Calipari did what you asked him to, right? He built a team that's older and a team that doesn't have any shooting questions. He's also got a deep backcourt, and we've seen that can take you a long way in college basketball these days. The offense is going to be efficient and fun to watch. I think it will be not only one of Calipari's best shooting teams but one of his very best passing teams, and I love squads that keep the ball moving well. In short, when people talk about the ingredients you need in college basketball today it appears that Kentucky is built well.
Travis Graf: Modern offense. Through an intra-squad scrimmage and an exhibition game, this Kentucky team’s offensive approach appears to be the polar opposite of years past. There hasn’t been double-posts, zero horns set, and triple the threes through two showings. Calipari needed to tweak a lot of thing after last season and so far it looks like he’s done just that.
David Sisk: There are lots of reasons to be excited about this team. They are going to have a very good inside game with a monster in the middle in Oscar Tshiebwe and a potential lottery pick in Damion Collins. They have more outside shooting than they have had in a long time. They are also loaded with ball handlers. There are three different players who can play the point guard spot. This roster is clearly better than last season's at just about every position.
There is also a bevvy of depth and experience. Normally, John Caliapri has one of the youngest teams in the country. This season they have one of the oldest units a Kentucky team has had in years if not decades. A team has to get old to make a run at the National Championship. The proof is in the pudding the past few years when one looks at March Madness. But in regards to Kentucky there just isn't strength in numbers. It is quality depth.
What are the biggest reasons to be concerned or cautious?
Drummond: The Cats are still a little bit lean in the frontcourt. Granted, this is college basketball, and very few (if any) programs have significant depth among their bigs. My biggest question at this point is what things look like when Oscar Tshiebwe encounters foul trouble. Has Lance Ware developed enough to take up the slack? Can the razor-thin Daimion Collins be a physical presence and strong rebounder?
Rowland: Other than Oscar Tshiebwe the frontcourt is a question for me. When he's in there it's going to be a really strong offensive rebounding team, but I'm not sure he's going to be a back to the basket scorer. Does this team have one? They're going to play offense very differently so that helps but if they're planning on using Lance Ware and Keion Brooks as the frontcourt when he's out then that's a question for me. The defense didn't look good in the first scrimmage but I think they're going to improve quite a bit there. I don't think it will be one of Cal's best defensive teams. I see this team top-10 offensively on paper but maybe only top 50 defensively.
LINK: Kentucky basketball to host top-five prospect Kwame Evans Jr
Graf: Lack of rim protection. Last Friday, Kentucky let a 6’6” forward score 29 points on them, with most coming in the paint area. Lord knows what Paolo Banchero might do to the ‘Cats next week. Calipari’s best teams have elite rim and paint protection, and this team seems to lack that at this point.
Sisk: The one concern I see with this team is the lack of big-time athleticism and star power on the wings. The skill set is there, but it is very rare that John Calipari doesn't have a first round draft pick possibility at the two or three. Ty Ty Washington is a great addition. He could very well play himself into the lottery. Although Kellan Grady, C.J. Frederick, Davion Mintz, and Dontaie Alllen can all stroke it, and are all solid college players, I don't see a Jaml Murray, Devin Booker, or even a Tyrese Maxey in the group. However, I don't view this as a weakness. I just don't see it as an overall strength when they go up against the ultra-athletic backcourts in the league like Alabama, Auburn and Arkansas will throw out there.
How many games do you think Kentucky will win this year and how far do you see them going?
Drummond: Regular season record: 25-6; Final Four. The Cats are long overdue for a return to the Final Four. It’s hard to believe when one types it, but it will be seven years when April 2022 rolls around. Calipari finally has the roster build to make another run at it.
Rowland: Because it's an older team I think they'll have a solid OOC record and will avoid a rut in conference play so I'll say six or seven regular season losses and an SEC tournament championship with your typical Kentucky-dominated crowd. I'll pick them to finish in the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight. The tourney is a crap shoot, that just means I think that's the range they're in nationally preseason.
Graf: The ‘Cats go 26-5 in the regular season and reach the Elite Eight in the postseason. They can most definitely go further than the Final Four, but will a true, consistent star emerge to raise their ceiling that high?
LINK: Mookie Cooper discusses his Kentucky visit and offer
Sisk: Kentucky will go 25-6 in the regular season, and will make a strong run at the Southeastern Conference Championship. This team has a high ceiling. I think they fall in that Elite Eight/Sweet 16 gap, and are definitely a player for the Final Four. If I had to guess I would lean more to the last eight rather than the round of 16. But when you get into that area, the window between winning and losing gets very small.
What's your prediction for the Final Four and who cuts down the nets?
Drummond: Final Four: Gonzaga, Michigan, Villanova, Kentucky.
Champion: Kentucky - Let me throw this out there for fun: Calipari breaks through in a storyline similar to the massive disappointment Virginia felt when it became the first No. 1 seed to get knocked out by a No. 16, only to come back and win it all the following season. It would be a great story if UK went from one of the worst seasons in program history to national champions.
Rowland: UCLA, Gonzaga, Texas, Michigan
With so many variables in college basketball and especially March Madness once again I'm just going with what I see on paper in the preseason. These teams are complete, balanced rosters with coaches who have some kind of track record. I'll say Gonzaga gets over the hump and avenges last year's loss in the national championship game.
Graf: Final Four: Michigan, Gonzaga, Alabama, and Purdue. Champion: Michigan.
Sisk: Final Four - Gonzaga, Kansas, Michigan, UCLA. I wouldn't bet very much on a pre-season prop, but these look like four of the best teams right now to me. I would definitely put Kentucky among the list of contenders along with other strong rosters like Purdue, Texas, and Villanova.
Champion: Gonzaga with a zero level of confidence.
