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Published Jul 7, 2023
Five predictions for Kentucky's defense
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Justin Rowland  •  CatsIllustrated
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To help fans gear up for the approaching college football season Cats Illustrated publisher Justin Rowland is breaking the team, schedule, and landscape down one angle at a time.

Earlier in the week we went over predictions for the offense.

Now we move over to the other side of the ball and tackle predictions for the defense.

Deone Walker earns second team All-SEC honors once again

Kentucky's defense isn't really structured to allow defensive linemen to create a lot of sacks and pressures in the backfield. In Mark Stoops' 3-4 base defense the defensive linemen are often containing the backfield and occupying blockers for the linebackers to clean up plays near the line of scrimmage.

But Deone Walker changes the calculation a little bit simply because his length and athleticism make him such a difficult individual blocking assignment. For a player to earn second team All-SEC honors as a true freshman defensive lineman is quite an achievement.

Because of the scheme, don't expect Walker to post huge numbers, but quarterbacks will always known where he is and he's going to be an impactful player once again. There's just too much talent there for that not to happen.

The pass defense numbers take a step back

This doesn't necessarily mean the quality of the unit takes a step back, but breaking in new corners against a very difficult schedule in the SEC means the pass defense numbers are probably going to regress.

Kentucky only allowed 171 passing yards per game last season. That was one of the best numbers in college football.

This year, Kentucky sees plenty of offenses that will be capable of lighting up opponents through the air. The most passing yards Kentucky has allowed per game in recent years was 225 back in 2020, again when the schedule was brutal because of the COVID year.

Jalen Geiger hits the ground running

Kentucky's experienced safety from South Carolina missed most of last season following an injury that sidelined him but all indications are his recovery has been on schedule and he should be good to go for fall camp. That's a positive timeline, and as a mature veteran who has watched others come back from serious injuries he's known what it will take to come back at 100%.

While we've seen some players come back with rust - think Davonte Robinson, Keaton Upshaw, and others - my expectation is that Geiger comes back to play a strong 600+ snaps as one of the starters in the secondary. He'll get snaps at both safety positions and probably at nickel as well, and there isn't a whole lot of proven depth at safety so he's going to have to be an important player right away upon his return.

When we talk about versatility in the secondary Geiger has often been undersold. He can play just about everything on the back end of the defense, both the run and pass, and with a secondary that's breaking in new corners they need as much experience and leadership as they can get back there. He's one of the most important players on the defense this season.

Sacks and turnovers forced go up

If there's one criticism to be made of Kentucky's defense in recent years its that the sacks and turnovers forced haven't been great numbers. UK had 20 sacks last year, a solid 29 the year before that, but only 14 in 2020. They forced a lot of turnovers in a two-week span during the 2020 season when the defense befuddled Tennessee and Mississippi State, but that's really the only time in the last three years when they've forced much in the way of takeaways.

True, Kentucky is breaking in new corners, but there will be a lot of speed and length on this defense, as usual, and at least turnovers tend to be a bit unpredictable from year to year.

Don't expect Kentucky's defensive philosophy to change much, but with JJ Weaver going into a "contract year" at the college level and Deone Walker returning I think there will be more havoc and mistakes forced by the Wildcats.

Brad White has his fourth Top-25 defense in five years

For fans who grew up watching Kentucky football in the 1990s through most of the 2000s the level of success that Mark Stoops has brought to the defensive side of the football in Lexington is really astounding. He completely changed the program's identity and in doing that changed how people think about what's possible at Kentucky. It doesn't have to be a gimmick.

Brad White has had three top-25 defenses in his four years as Kentucky's defensive coordinator. That's a pretty good start to his tenure. The only time the Wildcats didn't rank in that top-25, as measured by total yards per game allowed, was 2020 when the schedule was outrageous. They still ranked No. 45 that year.

With a floor as high as Kentucky's defense's is and the fact that there are still some games where the unit can pad its numbers, expect another top-25 YPG defense which should give the Wildcats a chance to be competitive just about every week.

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