Cristian Conyer's announcement is the biggest of the year for Kentucky

Football teams are big things and football is the ultimate team sport with individual one-on-one battles and broader strategy involving 11 players and more than 100 plays per game. For that reason it's rarely a good idea to put too much stock in what any one recruit plans to do.

There are some exceptions.

Wan'Dale Robinson's transfer had a huge impact on Kentucky's fortunes in 2022, and Will Levis' could reverberate for quite some time.

Cristian Conyer is the kind of recruit who could have an outsized impact on Kentucky football in the near term especially, but with a longer-term impact we might not measure accurately for some time.

The South Warren defensive back and athlete is ranked the No. 1 player in Kentucky after the latest round of ranking revisions. He's the No. 15 designated athlete nationally in the Class of 2023.

LINK: Thursday Recruiting Notes at the House of Blue

Under normal circumstances, Conyer's decision — which comes down Sunday, July 3, and will result in a commitment to either Kentucky or Tennessee — would be one significant choice among many, but only one decision.

These aren't normal circumstances.

Kentucky's recruiting efforts under Mark Stoops have produced better results than Kentucky fans have been accustomed to seeing, and two 10-win seasons in the last four years and the current streak of bowl wins and appearances can be directly linked to those improved recruiting fortunes. As CI has mentioned before, Kentucky may have seen the greatest recruiting improvements of any program in the nation over the last decade.

But it has been a challenging year for Kentucky in recruiting. While many have expected Kentucky to rake in another huge net of four-star prospects, as the Cats' did last year with arguably Mark Stoops' best class, things have gotten off to a relatively slow start in this 2023 cycle.

Resist the temptation to read too much into that. After all, it's only the first day of July. We have about half a year until any players sign with any schools.

Kentucky currently has the No. 57 class in the nation according to Rivals.com. That's largely because the Cats have only seven commitments. Because of that small number of commitments, there's really nowhere for Kentucky to go but up. And they need to go up a lot.

UK's coaches surely feel good about the seven commitments they have secured, but they're battling some harsh realities right now. Stoops had to hire a number of new assistants over the last year, and he replaced a number of assistants who had seen recruiting successes in their respective regions. Jon Sumrall, Eric Wolford, Steve Clinkscale, and Liam Coen is a lot to replace in one year. That amounted to UK's recruiting operation in much of the Deep South, in Tennessee, and in Michigan, places that had become essential parts of Kentucky's overall strategy.

There are some good signs longer term with the current makeup of the staff. But it often takes new recruiters a little while to find traction and start to see results.

LINK: Weight changes for Kentucky football going into the 2022 season

That reality is staring Kentucky in the face along with the difficult to measure but undeniable significance of Name, Image, & Likeness, which many Kentucky student-athletes have benefited from, but which has not been linked to exorbitant deals for UK in quite the same way it has in the case of some other programs and players.

To be clear, most quarterbacks are not securing deals for $8 or $9.5 million. Most schools are not benefiting from NIL in close to the same way the Texas A&M Aggies are.

But the very fact that two of the sport's most prominent coaches allowed the NIL topic to escalate into a full blown Cold War earlier this year is a testament to how significant the exchange of currency in a largely unpoliced gray area has become, at least for now in the absence of more rules and enforcement.

Had Wan'Dale Robinson returned to Kentucky for another year, he would have gotten paid in a big way. Will Levis is monetizing his NIL and impressive projected draft slot in an impressive way. But when it comes to the sheer number of players benefiting, Kentucky has to prove it can keep up. One CI source close to the football program told us weeks ago, "If Kentucky wants to be great in football, people have to step up."

All of that leads us to that upcoming announcement from Conyer, which is undoubtedly the most important of this year for Kentucky.

Conyer is not only the No. 1-ranked player in Kentucky. He also offers Kentucky the opportunity to generate some much-needed momentum while the Wildcats are in a very unfamiliar position in the Rivals.com team recruiting rankings.

Landing the state's top-ranked player would be another feather in the cap of Vince Marrow. It would represent a significant recruiting victory against SEC East and recruiting rival Tennessee. And it would come at the beginning of a month that could see a lot of other top-tier Kentucky targets make their decisions.

With Tennessee showing more of a pulse on and off the field under Josh Heupel, Michigan State benefiting from the Mel Tucker bump and NIL, Louisville putting together a totally unpredictable and impressive class with national talent, and Cincinnati coming off an appearance in the College Football Playoff, Kentucky's recruiting power under Mark Stoops is being tested by outside competition more than any point in recent memory. There's no reason to believe Kentucky won't respond and continue to accumulate talent, because that's what it has done well for a decade, but the timing of Conyer's decision, as well as his stature and potential, make him as close to a must-sign football player as exists in the '23 class for UK.

CI reported last year that Stoops was eager to capitalize on Tennessee's extended down period. UK has landed the likes of Quinton Bohanna, Tre'vonn Rybka, Barion Brown, and Shamar Porter from the Volunteer State in recent years. UK won head to head battles with Tennessee and other schools for players like Justin Rogers, Octavious Oxendine, and others. UT going into Lexington for a 45-42 win against a highly-regarded UK team didn't help that momentum but was something UK could survive, especially with a strong year. But this particular recruitment, featuring the No. 1 player in Kentucky who is also considering the Vols, ratchets up the very real stakes in Conyer's decision on multiple fronts.

Conyer officially visited Kentucky at the same time that four-star wide receiver Anthony Brown was taking his official to the school.

Kentucky has also hosted four-star linebacker Jaden Robinson, four-star defensive lineman Kendrick Gilbert, four-star defensive backs Robert Stafford and Ja'Keem Jackson, top center target Koby Keenum, and many others over the last month. They all seem to be giving Kentucky very strong consideration, and UK is probably much more attractive to each if they see the Wildcats have locked down the state's No. 1 player.

If Conyer picks Tennessee it's still possible Kentucky could put together the kind of class that continues the program's success. Even if they don't, the program's success can continue. A look up and down the roster seems to indicate that the program's overall talent level hasn't been decimated by a 2019 signing class that has been largely wiped out by attrition. During the 2015 signing class UK saw about a dozen decommitments, but many were replaced by very successful college and some future NFL players, so sometimes we just don't know.

But given the uncertainties introduced by NIL, the big changes on the staff, the improved recruiting clout for some recruiting rivals, and the Cats' current ranking, it's hard to imagine Conyer's decision not leading to either positive momentum or a negative narrative.

Of course, we're only talking about macro-level impact and ripple effect. Conyer is ranked the No. 1 player in Kentucky for a reason. He's right at the top of Kentucky's board for defensive back and has all the traits from length to athleticism and skill that UK looks for at safety. He could impact UK in the return game as well. Kentucky's track record with top tier in-state players is pretty strong in recent years. Whether at Kentucky or Tennessee, we're likely talking about at least a multi-year starter in the SEC.

We don't have to wait much longer to find out where he's going to end up.