3-2-1: Competition at key spots and D-Line surprises
This week's 3-2-1 previews Southern Miss and reflects on Mark Stoops' depth chart for the USM game.
The format hasn't changed. The 3-2-1 presents three things we've learned, two questions we're asking and one bold prediction.
What we've learned
1. Competition is ongoing. We've covered this at length already (see: Depth chart commentary) but let's examine this again: What's in an "or"? Kentucky's USM week depth chart is littered with "or," which indicates there's not a clear starter but, rather, two players vying for the spot (with both likely to play).
Jordan Jones or Eli Brown; Grant McKinniss or Bryan Kirshe; Jojo Kemp or Stanley Williams; Dorian Baker or Tavin Richardson; Jordan Griffin or Davonte Robinson -- if you're counting that's ongoing competition at linebacker, punter, running back, wide receiver and (backup) cornerback.
In most of those cases that kind of competition is probably a good thing. In a couple of cases (punter, especially) it may be a little more troubling.
These ongoing competitions also tell us something about the coaching staff: No one is safe; no one is entitled. Even established players with lots of name recognition are having to fight off players once assumed to be backups.
Link: Southern Miss Sideline - Jay Hopson talks about the Cats
Premium link: Monday's basketball recruiting insider notes
2. Kentucky's run game has a major advantage against Southern Miss. This isn't a bold prediction. On paper, it's a fact. The Golden Eagles' defensive front is much smaller than Kentucky's offensive line, especially up the middle. While the loss of Regie Meant definitely hurt Kentucky's defensive line, the loss of Draper Riley is potentially crippling for the Golden Eagles.
Here are the current weights for the four projected starters on the Southern Miss defensive line (nose tackle, defensive tackle, defensive end, 'Wolf'): 240, 250, 250, 265. Two of those players are just 6-foot-1 and only one stands about 6-foot-3.
The Cats' tackles still need to prove themselves. The interior of the line has little to nothing left to prove. But this first game gives them the opportunity to build confidence in a ground game that will be essential to season-long balance and consistency that Eddie Gran desires.
Premium link: 2018 defensive tackle hearing from Eddie Gran
Premium discussion: Five-star Calipari target P.J. Washington sets UK official visit
3. Freshmen are going to play. Dating back to Mark Stoops' last appearance on Kentucky Sports Radio, the Cats' head coach has been talking about playing freshmen. Benny Snell, Landon Young, Justin Rigg, Jordan Griffin, Davonte Robinson, Kash Daniel, Grant McKinniss and T.J. Carter are just some of the players on the first week depth chart or who have been mentioned by Stoops and his staff in recent days.
The 2016 class was widely praised and highly ranked. Several of those players will be called upon early.
Notably, none are locks to start although McKinniss is listed as a potential starter along with Kirshe.
What we're asking
1. What should we make of the defensive line's two-deep? This is where the big surprises came when the Cats' USM week depth chart was released.
Notably, JUCO transfer Naquez Pringle is currently slated to back up Matt Elam. Stoops and staff members haven't spoken about Pringle after practices and Cats Illustrated sources had never hinted that Pringle would find his way up the depth chart so quickly. It was widely assumed that Pringle had a steep learning curve ahead of him.
Also, redshirt freshman Calvin Taylor is backing up Adrian Middleton at defensive tackle. That was another big surprise. The 6-foot-9 Georgia native was a late addition to the 2015 recruiting class and was seen as a project at the time.
Is it a good sign or a bad sign that Taylor and Pringle are listed on the present two-deep? There's no question the defensive line has a lot to prove. Optimists can hope that Pringle and Taylor have just exceeded expectations. Pessimists -- or the "I'll believe it when I see it" crowd -- will likely be concerned.
It's worth noting that Tymere Dubose still isn't 100-percent and that's one reason he probably hasn't secured the second nose guard spot.
2. Will shakeups in the secondary prove beneficial? For all the questions facing Kentucky football going into 2016 one position unit that's almost never questioned is the secondary. When you have players like Mike Edwards, Chris Westry and Derrick Baity that's understandable.
But let's pose some questions. These questions are related to a changing depth chart; changes that were prompted, in part, by Darius West's latest injury.
Earlier in the spring J.D. Harmon was working out at nickel, corner and safety. He seems to have settled in as a backup corner, which became a familiar spot for him last year. Kendall Randolph is now a backup safety rather than a nickel or a corner. Marcus McWilson isn't on the two-deep. And perhaps most notably there's linebacker Kobie Walker as the backup nickel.
How those moving parts fit together to make up the secondary is a big key for the 2016 defense, even if there's not much concern about the defensive backfield.
Bold prediction
In past 3-2-1's we've predicted the rise of Benny Snell and Landon Young.
This week's bold call: Kentucky will defeat Southern Miss by 14 points or more.
Nick Mullens is a formidable quarterback in Week One, especially for a defense with some question marks. But there are some glaring mismatches in this game and all of them favor Kentucky. The game may be close for a while (or maybe not), but it won't end as a nailbiter and the Cats cover the spread easily.