Staff predictions for Kentucky football in 2016
The Cats Illustrated staff gives 2016 predictions for Kentucky football in roundtable fashion.
Our discussion of the national college football landscape can be read here. Now on to the Cats.
What will be Kentucky's overall record in 2016?
Derek Terry, Staff Writer: 7-5. The main reason I'm choosing seven wins is because I think Kentucky is better than three of the SEC opponents it'll face -- Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt -- and will finally be able to beat Dan Mullen and Mississippi State. 6-6 is the safe choice and very well could be the final mark, but it's not a reach to pick seven wins for this bunch. However, too many questions on the defensive line and linebacker make seven wins the ceiling for this bunch.
Josh Ellis, Staff Writer: 6-6. This is the year Mark Stoops and Kentucky finally make a bowl game, but just barely. This could change as the season progresses, but as of right now I don't think the defense will be good enough to get the Cats to seven wins. With that being said, I like the offense a lot and think it will do great this year, but ultimately in my mind it will be the defense that has to have outstanding performances against Mississippi State or Georgia for UK to hit the seven win mark.
T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: 6-6. Just enough to get a bowl game seems like the popular choice, but this year is a little different than others under Mark Stoops. In 2014 and 2015 fans asked "Where is the sixth win?" UK needed to upset a team to be able to get to No.6 in the past two years. This year the Cats may be favored in over six games. UK could fall short and win just four or five, but the schedule could also allow seven or eight wins. Smart logic says if Kentucky stays healthy that six seems like the most likely.
Justin Rowland, Publisher: 6-6. The Vegas lines will have Kentucky favored in three of four out of conference games. Assuming they take care of Southern Miss, that means Kentucky would, in the most likely scenario, need to finish 3-5 in the SEC. Fortunately they're in the East and also draw South Carolina and Vanderbilt at home. They should be favorites in both of those contests and between Mississippi State (also at home) and Missouri, the schedule sets up nicely. Games against Louisville and Florida will start with UK as the underdog, but neither foe is so imposing that the game appears impossible.
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What's Kentucky's best opportunity for an upset this year?
Derek Terry, Staff Writer: Florida. This game will be the first true challenge for Florida quarterback Luke Del Rio. He's only thrown 18 career passes so my guess is he's never faced a secondary as good as Kentucky's. If the defense is unable to get pressure on him then it might not matter. Florida also has a few power running backs in Jordan Scarlett and Mark Thompson that could give the Kentucky defense a lot of trouble. Florida's defense will still be legit and it's also Drew Barker's first road start, but if the Wildcats are going to pull an upset this season, I still think it's this one.
Josh Ellis, Staff Writer: Florida. Kentucky has played Florida close the last two years and should have even more confidence this year than it had going into last year. The Cats' opener against Southern Miss. will help UK identify some weaknesses that can be fixed and tampered with before it heads down to Gainesville. On the other side, UMASS isn't good enough to expose any weakness Florida has, handing that opportunity to Kentucky on September 10. I think the early matchup could help UK spark an upset and a potential 4-0 start.
T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: Georgia. Don't expect Georgia to compete in the SEC East this season and don't expect first year Kirby Smart to emulate his Alabama days in year one. The Bulldogs have a ton of question marks across the board and could be starting a true freshman by the time they come to Lexington. The talent gap is as close as it's been between UK and Georgia and also consider the Bulldog's schedule. The week before Georgia plays rival Florida in Jacksonville, and the following week they host Auburn. UK could easily be overlooked and in early November it may be colder than Georgia prefers.
Justin Rowland, Publisher: Florida. If Kentucky is an underdog at home against Mississippi State then I would go with that one, going strictly by the question. But if we're talking about a more significant upset, I'd say UK's best chance to shock the college football world is early in the season when they travel to the Swamp. Mark Stoops' teams have played the Gators competitively every year and they'll go to Gainesville with a lot of confidence (assuming they take care of business beforehand) and a chip on their shoulders, ready to break that streak. Florida's quarterback situation does look better than it has recently, and that has to be concerning. But it's an early-season game and I think it will be close once again.
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What's your biggest question mark facing Kentucky in 2016?
Derek Terry, Staff Writer: Defensive line. We've seen Matt Elam and Courtney Miggins some over the course of their careers, but no one else on the defensive line has seen any reps. Adrian Middleton has earned some praise but he's now been forced into an unexpected starting role. Kentucky will need all three of those guys to be productive members of the defense. Quite frankly, the depth behind those three players is worrisome.
Josh Ellis, Staff Writer: Linebackers. I think the talent is there for Kentucky's linebacking core, but without having seen them all play together it's difficult to predict how this group will pan out during the season. I know guys like Courtney Love, Kobie Walker and De'Niro Laster have the potential to make the linebackers a solid group -- but if the camaraderie between them and others isn't there will the linebackers still be sufficient? If the linebackers reach or exceed their potential I think it could help cover up some weaknesses from the defensive line and possibly even be a factor in UK reaching seven wins, but at this point it's just too hard to tell.
T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: Quarterbacks. I was going to just type Drew Barker but what if he's injured or is underwhelming? Will there be packages for Stephen Johnson and could he make an impact? But while Stephen Johnson may have a role at some point, UK's offense will go as far as Drew Barker takes it. Other suggestions for biggest question marks may be defensive line and linebackers, but I don't think there's that big of a question mark for the defensive line. It's not going to be great. UK will have to make up for a weak defensive line in other areas. The question for linebackers is who's going to step up, because there's plenty of options. QB is the easy answer here because if Barker can't lead the offense and make the throws he needs to make, Kentucky won't be heading to a bowl and it will be a long season.
Justin Rowland, Publisher: The defensive line. On paper, I see this unit as being forced to rely on players a year too early. I think guys like Kengera Daniel, Adrian Middleton and some others have very bright futures in college football - or at least they can be quality players in time. But even before Regie Meant's departure this was my biggest question mark, so I'm doubling down on this question forcefully. Defensive line questions (and offensive line questions, too, for that matter) are compounded in the Southeastern Conference. Aside from Courtney Miggins, there are question marks. Matt Elam has potential but Mark Stoops seems to want to see more. Alvonte Bell has gotten bigger, but is he ready? So much hinges on these guys and it's a serious question.
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Who will be Kentucky's most valuable player (defined however you'd like)?
Derek Terry, Staff Writer: Boom Williams. He has to stay healthy, but Williams has shown over the last two seasons that he's the best playmaker on Kentucky's offense and one of the best in the conference. Jojo Kemp is a steady, reliable back who can do some really good things, but Williams is the star of the offense and a true game changer. For an offense that has several guys who should at least get a shot at the NFL at some point, Williams is the best of the group right now.
Josh Ellis, Staff Writer: Drew Barker. If Drew Barker doesn't have a good season, Kentucky won't have a good season. In my opinion the drop-off from Barker to Stephen Johnson is bigger than what most people think -- Barker's consistency and leadership are two qualities that make him the team MVP. He has ample playmakers around him who make his job easier, but if Barker becomes inconsistent or is injured and UK becomes a one-dimensional team on offense, that's going to be troublesome. Without Barker, a guy who the team trusts as its leader, the Cats won't get to where they want to go -- a bowl.
T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: Stanley Williams. This is the easy choice. You could make a case other players are more valuable because there's depth at the running back position but Williams is UK's best player and it's not particularly close. As fans have seen, he can make something out of nothing. He's usually the most athletic player on the field. If Barker is struggling Williams will be a necessity. UK has to hope he stays healthy because when he's on the field the Cats will always have a chance at a big play.
Justin Rowland, Publisher: Stanley Williams. Okay, so I could have gone with Drew Barker. Maybe I should. But I think there is a serious case to be made for Boom as Kentucky's most valuable player. If you take Barker off this team then that leaves Stephen Johnson, Gunnar Hoak and an uphill climb. But I think Johnson could conceivably still lead the team to the postseason. Without Stanley Williams, I don't think I'd be predicting Kentucky to finish 6-6. Kentucky has good depth at running back but the potentially great player with the ball in his hands is Boom. At times last year, when healthy, he was Kentucky's only offense. Even when the line didn't help him a lot. He's the kind of player who can single-handedly win a game by making a play or two that nobody else could. For that reason he's my MVP pick.
Who will be the biggest breakout player for Kentucky in 2016?
Derek Terry, Staff Writer: Eli Brown. Kobie Walker is a good pick for this and a guy who I think will prove to be a force on defense, but the defensive staff has talked Brown up quite a bit this fall camp. He's still on the skinny side and perhaps I'm a year too early on this pick, but I really think Brown will make a lot of plays and solidify his spot as a starter at weakside linebacker.
Josh Ellis, Staff Writer: Kayaune Ross. It's name I don't think you'll hear much at the beginning of the season, but by the end of the season I guarantee you will. He's just too good not to be on the field. It's been almost forever since Ross has last appeared in a football game, but once he shakes off any remaining rust and becomes comfortable with the flow of the offense I think he'll be a valuable weapon for UK.
T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: Derrick Baity. Baity better be ready. Don't expect teams to throw Chris Westry's way often, so that means Baity is going to see a lot of action. That's not bad news for UK because Baity is extremely talented. He will lead the team in pass break-ups and cornerback duo featuring Westry and Baity will be one of the best in the SEC this year and next.
Justin Rowland, Publisher: Kobie Walker. I was tempted to go with Tavin Richardson, but the receiving corps is so deep I feel like he can play well and still get limited opportunities and targets. Walker was just praised so many times in camp, it's tough to ignore that. For a team in need of a pass rush and linebackers stepping up in general, Walker will have every opportunity to burst onto the scene.