Each week the Cats Illustrated team breaks down the last Kentucky football game and provides coverage of the one to come.
But I'll also share my own thoughts on the college football landscape as it exists across the SEC, the country, and especially in matters that might be of interest to UK fans for whatever reason.
... Kentucky is in a better place in the SEC East than I thought going into the season. I picked the 'Cats fourth in the East behind UGA, Florida, and Missouri, a couple of spots ahead of where the league's media as a whole picked UK after the Hoover festivities. If I could re-rank now I would have the 'Cats third, with Missouri obviously taking a tumble. I think Florida and Kentucky are actually very close, and don't mistake me putting the Gators second and 'Cats third as a sign that I will pick Florida to win in Lexington. Home field and matchups matter.
... I think it's a little silly if anyone is actually offended by an omission of Kentucky from the Top-25. If you think the 'Cats are a Top-25 squad then I respect that opinion. It's a reasonable take and you can make a solid case for it. But you can also make a case against. The big thing is it doesn't matter and nobody knows a whole lot about how every team stacks up against the others yet. UK will use their non-ranking as a chip.
... But the 'Cats might be in a game between Top-25 teams against Florida two weekends from now if a few games tip the right way. Kentucky is 29th in the Coaches Poll, one spot behind where I projected over the weekend. They're a single vote behind Iowa State, which didn't look good in its opener. The teams outside the Top-25 ranked ahead of Kentucky are Mississippi State (26), Cincinnati (27), and Iowa State (28). The Bulldogs were only "OK" against Louisiana and they have some suspended players who are out for a while and the Bearcats looked solid against a UCLA team that nobody knows anything about in terms of what to expect.
... If UK is to move into the Top-25 before the highly anticipated UF game, here are the contests to watch where you'd need some upsets (and why I don't think it's likely). No. 17. Wisconsin was a juggernaut against USF and gets CMU at home. No. 18 UCF will be big favorites on the road against FAU. No. 19 Michigan State should take care of Western Michigan in East Lansing. No. 20 Iowa will not lose to Rutgers at home. If Oregon starts 0-2 they'd be one physically impressive 0-2 team, but it's tough to see them losing to Nevada. Washington State, No. 22, has lost some head scratchers early in the season under Mike Leach but they should handle Northern Colorado.
In short, UK will probably have to beat Florida for a second straight year to move into the Top-25. But if they win that game, they might soar right into the Top-20.
... This is the best the Big Ten has looked on paper since the late 90's when Joe Paterno still had Penn State nationally relevant with Lavar Arrington and Co., Lloyd Carr had some really good Michigan teams, Ohio State was a factor some years, Minnesota was quality, Purdue had Drew Brees for a spell, Wisconsin had Ron Dayne at the turn of the millenium, etc. I'm not saying it's the nation's best conference.
But Justin Fields looked dynamite right from the start against FAU and the Buckeyes have the talent to crash the playoff. Michigan can still win the Big Ten and contend. Wisconsin is my darkhorse and bold pick to win the Big Ten (What's up, @FreezingColdTakes?), then there's Penn State which dropped 79 (as did Maryland), a stout Iowa team that may be able to run the ball again, and more. I suspect Purdue will rebound to beat a couple of good teams, as Missouri will in the SEC, and overall this league is very respectable on paper.
... The Pac-12 South is really awful. It's tough to see Clay Helton making it past this season with his starting quarterback out and him having a fringe Top-25 team even with a healthy signal caller. Utah should play for the league crown and I do love that defensive front, and they don't have much competition in that division. But the North is really good. I'm honestly surprised at how good Mario Cristobal has the Ducks. I wasn't sure about him as a fit and I wasn't sure Oregon could recapture the Chip Kelly era magic. They aren't there yet, but they are a team that fits, has some athletes, is improved on defense, and is a legit Top 15 squad. But just like the national championship game against another Auburn team, they couldn't line up and beat Auburn's line to get a yard and run out the game when it counted. Washington, Stanford, and Washington State are solid as well.
... What to make of the SEC West? If LSU wins in Austin against Texas this weekend they will become my pick to win the SEC West (paging @FreezingColdTakes, x2). Joe Burrow is what LSU has needed at quarterback, they have an improved backfield, lots of weapons on the outside, and elite defensive talent. I'm surprised by what Ed Orgeron has done in Baton Rouge. Goes to show that winning at LSU and winning at Ole Miss aren't the same thing, and that's why I hate head coach rankings. Totally uneven playing field and different toys.
... I tweeted eight months ago that folks would regret bashing UNC for the Mack Brown hire and doubled down insisting he was the right choice. In full disclosure, although I was never a Tar Heel supporter, my father went there and I grew up going to games there and at NC State so I"m familiar with their program. I saw what Mack did recruiting-wise in N.C., Virginia, and elsewhere in the late '90's, and at Texas he didn't forget how to coach, he just got burned out. He put together a dynamite staff, has a winner at quarterback, and is recruiting lights out. Much like Mark Stoops upon arrival in Lexington. That half of the ACC is wide open. My earlier bold pick was they would own that half of the ACC before Mack hangs it up in four or five years. My next bold pick is they have a real chance to go from 2-9 to the ACC Championship Game. But yikes. Look at that half of that league. Somebody has to win it, right?
Virginia is the smart pick since they have the league's second-best quarterback and just handled Pitt on the road. They have fewer questions. But like the Pac-12 South, this is a very weak division, just minus a Top-15 squad like Utah.
... I'm resisting the urge to read too much into Alabama struggling early against Duke because of the suspensions. When they had a full deck, they took care of business. And I do believe Nick Saban generally tries not to embarrass coaches he has a deep respect for, with David Cutcliffe probably being in that group. But as talented as Tua and those receivers are, I'm just not seeing this as one of the Tide's best teams of the Saban era. They're a title contender for sure, but I regret picking them to win it all. I would give them the second best odds behind Clemson right now, but I'm thinking they're a lot closer to Oklahoma, Ohio State, Georgia, and LSU than I thought before seeing a one-game sample from each.
... Purdue! Jeff Brohm, man. He's a good coach who has done a good job there. Good recruiting, good offense, turned a doormat, dormant program respectable again. But I always said UK fans were overreacting if they were afraid of him, either at Purdue or at Louisville. It's still Purdue. You might say, "Well, Stoops is doing it at Kentucky...Kentucky!" but the odds are always against a coach who's fighting that kind of uphill battle. Brohm will probably win six or seven again but I haven't seen anything that leads me to believe they're headed for much more than that. Good, but nothing UK fans should worry about.
... Louisville has a pulse again, but didn't we all expect that? Or shouldn't we? The team quit on Bobby Petrino. They don't have a lot of talent, but it's not like UofL was Kansas talent-wise last year. Getting a team motivated for Week 1 against Notre Dame, at home, in your first game, isn't exactly a huge coaching accomplishment. However, Satterfield knows how to coach, he gets X's, O's, and offensive football. They have some speed on the outside and can scare some teams. I just do not see bowl eligibility this year against that schedule. They'll get beat up, have depth tested, and win four games or so with some hope for a bowl in 2020.
... I thought Willie Taggart would get it done at Florida State but now I doubt that. Your window to succeed as a coach at a football factory is small. Patience wears thin, recruiting rivals seize momentum, locker room culture sours quickly. Taggart was a builder and good coach at previous stops and maybe he succeeds, but FSU has been a mentally weak team for a long time and they appear to be that once again after a home collapse against a Boise State team piloted by a freshman quarterback.
... Speaking of freshman quarterbacks, don't sleep on them. Anywhere. The young guns are winning big games and exceeding expectations across the country. Inexperience behind center used to be a big problem. Now with the spread's proliferation across all levels of the sport, and the rise of of the 7v7 scene, huge camp tours, enhanced training, and smarter coaching, these guys - like basketball freshmen - are more prepared than ever to come in under the right circumstances.
... Nebraska in the Top-25 seemed premature before the season. I don't want to read much into them failing to even come close to the -37 home spread against South Alabama, but I wouldn't have put them in the Top-25. Nebraska averaged 2.23 yards per carry against a mid-major at home. Doesn't bode well against the likes of Wisconsin and Iowa. Some of you will scowl at even the mention of Wandale Robinson, and he didn't handle that recruiting finale well, but he's going to be good. He had 3 catches for 33 yards and four rushes for 21 yards in his debut. He was a loss, but he's not Rondale Moore.
... Even after Week 1, I don't see it working out for these coaches, either this year or in the longer run: Will Muschamp (South Carolina), Jeremy Pruitt (Tennessee), Matt Luke (Ole Miss), Clay Helton (USC). It's too early to put Chad Morris on the hot seat because he bit off a big rebuild and it's early, but the Razorbacks will have problems this year once again.
... Last word on South Carolina. While I won't be pulling for the Gamecocks on Saturday (nor Kentucky, as I write, I don't cheer), it will be hard not to pull for Ryan Hilinski the rest of the way. Mental health has thankfully taken on a more prominent place in our nation's public dialogue, but unfortunately that's been the result of so much tragedy. Hilinski's older brother's suicide was devastating for me to learn of and read about because I spoke with him quite a few times when he was a recruit and it just hit closer to home than most such stories. Seeing how that family has responded to such a horrific situation has been inspiring.
Another round of coaching turnover in the SEC could be good or bad for Kentucky. It's more likely good, because continuity is very important for most programs and it would increase the disparity between the very stable UK, with Stoops in his seventh season as an elder statesman in the league, and much of the rest of the league. On the other hand, it's possible those teams could improve with new leadership.
... Teams I'm higher on than before the season after Week 1: Oklahoma, LSU, Wisconsin (and I had them fourth nationally), Ohio State, Boston College, Auburn, North Carolina, Kentucky, Oregon, Louisville.
... Teams whose stock I'm not selling even in the face of criticism: Notre Dame, Florida.
... Teams I'm lower on than before Week 1: Tennessee, Missouri, Syracuse, Florida State, Purdue.
