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Published Oct 29, 2017
Way too early look at Kentucky's bowl forecast and factors shaping it
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Justin Rowland  •  CatsIllustrated
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Kentucky guaranteed its spot in a bowl game with Saturday's win against Tennessee.

It's still far too early to project where the Cats will be bowling, but it's not too early to start looking at some of the dynamics that will shape where they might end up.

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UK fans should cheer for UGA and Bama

Kentucky has not technically been eliminated from the race for Atlanta to represent the SEC East in the conference championship game. At 3-2, however, they would have a long way to go to beat out Georgia, which is currently 5-0 in the SEC. The two teams play in Athens later this season and Georgia will be a heavy favorite. The Bulldogs are almost a lock represent the East and most believe they will take on Alabama in what should be the SEC's most anticipated championship game since Tim Tebow was still in college.

RELATED: Recruits react to Kentucky's win over Tennessee

The best case realistic scenario for Kentucky, in terms of bowl jockeying, would involve two SEC teams reaching the four-team College Football Playoff. It is entirely possible that both Alabama and Georgia could both make that playoff. Both teams are undefeated and should rank very high in early playoff forecasts.

If those two teams can both remain undefeated until they play in the SEC championship, as most expect they will, then the loser would still stand a good chance of reaching the playoff, especially if that game is competitive.

If two SEC teams reach the College Football Playoff, that would move Kentucky and every other bowl-eligible team in the conference up one spot in the league's postseason pecking order.

Could Mississippi State reach a New Year's Six bowl?

As Cats Illustrated contributor Adam Luckett pointed out on social media on Sunday morning, another SEC team winning big the rest of the way could help Kentucky's pecking order. If Mississippi State reaches a New Year's Six bowl game, that would also cause Kentucky and other SEC teams to climb the ladder.

How realistic is it to think that Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi State could all make major bowl games? That's anyone's guess. But those teams are certainly all in the mix for prestigious games.

RELATED: Kentucky-Tennessee photo gallery

The Bulldogs are currently 6-2 with their only two losses against Georgia and Auburn. Still on their schedule: UMass, Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss. Mississippi State will be strong favorites in three of those four games, so 9-3 seems likely. That could be enough for a New Year's Six game this year.

Auburn could theoretically be in contention for a New Year's Six game as well. However, the Tigers have to face both Georgia and Alabama. If they win either of those games, that would also mean that the SEC would be virtually guaranteed to have only one participant in the College Football Playoff. So the best case scenario for Kentucky and other bowl-eligible SEC teams would be two playoff teams and Mississippi State in the NY6 category.

Watch out for South Carolina

Although Kentucky defeated South Carolina in Columbia and has two SEC losses, like the Gamecocks, Will Muschamp's team could be an attractive draw this year for some bowls. Their fans will travel and seem energized by the way their South Carolina team has rebounded following that loss to Kentucky and Deebo Samuel's injury.

Kentucky's competition in the bowl pecking order

Working under the assumption that Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi State and Auburn will likely be selected ahead of Kentucky in the bowl pecking order, that leaves the following teams as competition for 6-2 (3-2 SEC) Kentucky.

The format: Team, record (conference record), remaining schedule.

LSU (6-2, 3-1): @ Alabama, Arkansas, @ Tennessee, Texas A&M

South Carolina (6-2, 4-2): @ Georgia, Florida, Wofford, Clemson

Texas A&M (5-3, 3-2): Auburn, New Mexico, @ Ole Miss, @ LSU

Florida (3-4, 3-3): @ Missouri, @ South Carolina, UAB, Florida State

Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Missouri and Arkansas would all be decidedly lower than Kentucky in any bowl scenario today, and none of those teams are close to guaranteed a trip to the postseason. Ole Miss has a self-imposed bowl ban for NCAA violations.


SEC's bowl schedule

The SEC could have one or two teams in the college football playoff (Sugar & Rose, national championship in Atlanta) and it's possible the league could also land a team in the New Year's Six (Peach, Fiesta, Orange, Cotton).

Beyond those games, here are the SEC's 2017-18 bowl tie-ins:

Outback (vs Big Ten), January 1 (Tampa, Fla.) Noon, ESPN2

Buffalo Wild Wings (vs Big Ten/ACC), January 1 (Orlando, Fla.), 1 p.m. ABC

TaxSlayer Bowl (vs Big Ten/ACC), December 30 (Jacksonville, Fla), Noon, ESPN

Liberty (vs Big 12), December 30 (Memphis, Tenn.), 12:30 p.m., ABC

Belk (vs ACC/ND), December 29 (Charlotte, N.C.), 1 p.m., ESPN

Music City (vs Big Ten/ACC/ND), December 29 (Nashville, Tenn.), 4:30 p.m., ESPN

Independence (vs ACC/ND), December 27 (Shreveport, La.), 1:30 p.m., ESPN

Texas (vs Big 12), December 27 (Houston, Tex.), 9 p.m., ESPN

Birmingham (vs AAC), December 23 (Birmingham, Ala.), Noon, ESPN


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