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Published Feb 15, 2022
UK-UT Predictions
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Justin Rowland  •  CatsIllustrated
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Kentucky goes on the road to take on a Tennessee team that it defeated 107-79 in Rupp Arena earlier this season.

It won't be easy especially since the Cats will be playing at less than full strength.

The Cats Illustrated team previews the game and makes predictions below.

What are you most interested in seeing in tonight's game?

Jeff Drummond: I think we're all interested to see how Tennessee responds to getting absolutely run out of Rupp Arena in a 107-79 loss on Jan. 15 in Rupp Arena. The Vols have had a month to stew about that one, and you can bet they have revenge on their minds. There are several reasons to think this will be a much bigger challenge for the Cats than they had back in January. For starters, Knoxville has frequently been a difficult place for UK to play. This is a ranked UT squad that has won seven of its last eight games, and UK might be without both TyTy Washington and Jacob Toppin, so I'm expecting a really close game this time around. And if you look at the stats from the first matchup, the Vols didn't play all that bad. They shot 53% and hit 11 3-pointers. Usually, those numbers will win you a game, but UT also had 20 turnovers and allowed UK to shoot an eye-popping 68%.

David Sisk: Before TyTy Washington suffered a lower body injury Saturday the contest in Knoxville already had a couple of intriguing storylines. The University of Tennessee has been a tough place for Kentucky to play historically. John Caliapri is only 5-6 at Thompson Boling, and 2-4 since Rick Barnes has been the Vols' head coach. The good news for Kentucky fans is that the Cats have won the last two on the road. Secondly, these are the two hottest teams in the SEC. The Cats are on a 6 game winning streak, while Tennessee has won four in a row and seven of eight. Finally, Kentucky has been the Super Bowl opponent in several tough venues. True, they lost to Auburn and LSU without a full deck, but big wins at Alabama, Kansas, and Texas A&M should have toughened their hide.

Justin Rowland: Kentucky has not always looked its best when TyTy Washington has been out of the game. If he is out against the Vols on the road, and Toppin's out too, then it makes it that much more important how everyone else plays. The good news for Kentucky is many times this year I've felt like they need a certain three or four players to play well, but they really don't. They just need Oscar to stay out of foul trouble and Wheeler not to have the rare game when he's just a bit out of control. If those two give their usual then it gives Kentucky a chance to win the game.

Tennessee is playing some of its best basketball of the season with four straight wins and all by healthy margins. Tennessee is KenPom's No. 10 team in the country (No. 30 offense, No. 6 defense). The big thing is this will be a tremendous test for Kentucky offensively if Washington and Toppin are out. I think you'd then need Wheeler to have one of his higher scoring games, or Grady to be hot, or Brooks to be the best version of himself. If one of those things happens then UK can win. If two of those things happen, they will win.

Going on the road I always feel like shot selection is going to be key.

Who needs to step up for Kentucky?

Drummond: Davion Mintz appears to be the clear choice for "step-up Cat" in this matchup. I doubt that we see TyTy Washington play after his lower-leg injury scare against Florida, so Mintz will have to log more minutes and keep playing at the high level he has displayed in league play.

Sisk: Where should we begin in what is going to have to go right to win at Tennessee without possibly having the services of TyTy Washington who had 28 points in the first meeting. If I had to pick one player to step it up it would be Davion Mintz. This probably isn't the place most would start, but there are several reasons to go there. I don't look for him to score that many points, but finishing in the 12 to 18 point range would be huge for the Cats. He definitely can get hot and put the ball in the basket. He finished Saturday's win against Florida with three straight trifectas late in the game, so here's to that rolling over into Tuesday night's action. Mintz also is the obvious choice to offer Sahvir Wheeler relief in the primary ball handling role. He will wear a lot of hats in Thompson Boling. Kentucky needs him to wear them well.

Rowland: Mintz is a good choice. Keion Brooks is also someone who needs to step up. He had a step "back" last time out and if he can give them 12 & 6 or better then it will be a very good sign in terms of UK's chances.

What's your prediction for the game?

Drummond: Kentucky 74, Tennessee 70 - I wouldn't be surprised if the Vols found a way to win this one, but I can't pick them after watching the Cats dismantle UT back in January. There's too much on the line for UK with a potential No. 1 seed now within their grasp. I think the Cats find a way to escape in an absolute war.

Sisk: I expect Rick Barnes to play a totally different strategy defensively the second time around. They tried to pressure out on the floor in Lexington, and Tennessee simply is not as athletic in certain spots, especially with Santiago Vescovi trying to chase down Sahvir Wheeler. Look for the Vols to pack it in and make it a lower scoring type of game. Tennessee has also picked up the offensive output the last four games. Their scoring average has increased by five points during that segment. Their three-point percentage has also jumped from 36% to 42.6% over that stretch. This game will have nothing to do with the Cats' quality in the long run. They still have everything it takes to be playing on the final weekend of the Big Dance, but for all of the above reasons this nut will be too tough to crack if TyTy Washington is not ready to go. Tennessee 72 Kentucky 69


Rowland: Tennessee 76, Kentucky 73. Going on the road with two of your best players and your best pure all-around scorer out is a tall order against the No. 16 team in the country. Yes, Kentucky completely dominated this team in Rupp, but we know that home court can completely change the complexion of a game. I feel like Kentucky is almost playing with house money tonight. A quadrant one loss wouldn't kill them especially if people are paying attention and know who might be out. Having said that, I won't be shocked with any game this team wins the rest of the way.

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