Road-tested and battled-hardened Kentucky returns Rupp Arena seeking to hold court against the Florida Gators on Saturday afternoon.
The Cats Illustrated staff discusses the game in its typical roundtable format with predictions.
What are you most interested in seeing in today's game?
David Sisk: Kentucky/Florida used to be the premier rivalry in the Southeastern Conference, but the Mike White tenure is in its seventh season, and there seems to be an annual pattern. His teams are once again a bubble type of team who can defeat higher seeded opponents once they get into the Big Dance. His teams have also had offensive woes, and this one is no different. The Gators average 71.1 points per game, and even though they are on a four game winning streak they have been right on that mark with a 70 point average. Florida is a good two-point shooting team, and they get to the line quite often, but they are one of the lowest three-point units in the country. I look for Kentucky to try to get a fast tempo and make this a high scoring game. The more points scored the better for the Cats while Florida would like to keep it a 70 or lower.
Jeff Drummond: Florida is quietly playing some decent basketball, winners of four straight. Granted, those Ws came against the likes of Georgia, Ole Miss, Missouri, and Oklahoma State -- no world-beaters -- but the Gators have gained confidence of late and will come into Rupp Arena looking to make a statement. I'm interested to see if the Cats will be able to match their intensity. You never really had to worry too much about UK getting up for this game in the past, but Florida doesn't pack the same punch as it once did. Will the Cats come out focused and ready to go against an opponent eager to record a signature win?
Travis Graf: Florida currently finds themselves on the outside looking in for this year’s NCAA tournament. What could help propel them into better tournament positioning than a win over a top five team on the road? On the court, Oscar Tshiebwe has had some of his “lesser” games in the last few weeks in matchups involving big men with length. Florida’s Colin Castleton stands at 6’11” and averages three blocks per contest. The Gators rank eighth national in blocks as a whole. Will they be able to neutralize Oscar?
Justin Rowland: There is not one thing about Florida that jumps out as especially worrisome. When you look at KenPom's rankings the Gators are 58th in offense and 55th in defense. That doesn't seem very good, but it means they're solid and capable of being good or very good on either or even both ends of the court in a given game. It's a solid all-around basketball team and you have to show up.
The bigger thing would be the Gators are 247th in KemPom's tempo rankings. Kentucky has a way of forcing its preferred tempo (very fast on offense) because of Sahvir Wheeler and some other factors (Grady's quick trigger, several guys having a capable mid-range game, etc) but the game might be a bit slower and we know opponents are making it a physical grind every time out. We know that Kentucky is going to score its points at Rupp, but I'm interested in seeing just how choppy this game gets. If the Gators can turn it into as much of a grind it out affair on both ends of the court as possible that's probably their best bet.
Florida's going to shoot a lot of three-pointers. Only one time in the last nine game have UF's opponents attempted more threes. It's not uncommon to see UF launch 28-30+ three-point attempts. That could mean a lot more long rebounds. We've seen plenty of that lately.
Who needs to step up for Kentucky?
Sisk: There are two players that enter my mind when it comes to setting the tone. First is Oscar Tshiebwe. Florida's center, Colin Castleton, is easily the team's best player. The 6-11 senior leads the team in both scoring and rebounding at 15.4 and 8.9 respectively. Tshiebwe will have a big responsibility in slowing down the top option and staying out of foul trouble. On the other end the slower pace that Florida likes to play falls right into his hands in the halfcourt. It would also be huge if he could get Castleton saddled with foul trouble. Sahvir Wheeler is also an important piece. He is the key to Kentucky's running game. The better he plays the worse it will be for the Gators. He can set the table in a fast paced game for his teammates.
Drummond: It may sound strange suggesting someone averaging around 16 points and 15 rebounds needs to "step up," but I'm going with Oscar Tshiebwe in this one. It's another matchup against an opposing center (6-foot-11 Colin Castleton) who has the type of size and length that has bothered Tshiebwe at times this year. It would be nice to see him make a statement that he has adjusted with March Madness rapidly approaching.
Graf: I look for Keion Brooks to continue his hot streak against a team without a huge threat at the four spot. Brooks has historically been very solid against the Gators and he can use this game to continue to build momentum heading into the end of the season.
Rowland: I'm finding it harder and harder to answer this question because when I really think about it, I don't actually believe this is a problem. Over time, we've seen that somebody does step up. I guess the only question is whether it will be enough and I have a hard time believing they won't at Rupp. So tweaking the question, a strong game from TyTy Washington would be tough for the Gators to overcome. We've seen Oscar Tshiebwe's "average" and it's elite. We've seen Kentucky go unscathed through an 0/19 stretch from Sahvir Wheeler. But if Washington is efficient in knocking down floaters, mid-range shots, and corner jumpers, picks his spots, and has a good game, and you add that to what you know others will do, it's a win.
What's your prediction?
Sisk: Make no mistake that Florida can be dangerous. They have beaten good teams like Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and Mississippi State. But this is a tough setup for the Gators. They have only scored more than 75 points in two of Florida's 11 league games. Holding the Cats to less than that in Rupp is a tough task. The Gators would like to get to the foul line, but the whistles usually don't work on the road. Kentucky 78 Florida 65.
Drummond: Kentucky 82, Florida 71 - I think the Cats have too many offensive weapons for the Gators in this matchup, but I don't think it will be a blowout. UK pulls away late in a hard-fought win.
Graf: Kentucky 77, Florida 68. The ‘Cats take care of business at home against an inferior opponent and continue to develop chemistry heading down the stretch. Keion Brooks and TyTy Washington have key games for the ‘Cats in the victory.
Rowland: Back at the beginning of January the Gators lost three consecutive games to Alabama, Auburn, and LSU. Since then Florida has gone 7-2, or 6-2 in the SEC with a win against Oklahoma State. As David said, beating Kentucky on the road is a bit different than anything they have done. It would probably take one of the worst games we've seen from Kentucky this year, or one of the best games by an SEC team this year from the Gators. Kentucky 78, Florida 70 in a win that requires some effort because this would be a such a big win for UF and you have to expect they're going to bring it.
