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Published Dec 3, 2022
UK-Michigan Predictions
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Justin Rowland  •  CatsIllustrated
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The most anticipated part of Sunday's game between Kentucky and Michigan is the venue in London.

But it's also an important early season game for a Kentucky team that hasn't come out of the gate as a finished product to put it mildly.

CI staff members offer predictions on the game.

What do you make of the matchup on paper?

Jeff Drummond: Is Michigan playing the Kentucky that entered the season almost unanimously considered one of the top five teams in the country, or the one that has failed in its only two games of the season against solid competition? Is Kentucky playing the Michigan team that led No. 3 Virginia for most of the game, or the one that Arizona State spanked by 25 points? Both of these teams seem to have an identity crisis right now. The key for the Wildcats seems to be knocking down three or four 3-pointers each half to complement what Oscar Tshiebwe is doing down low. But does Cal see it that way, or will he insist on trying to win rock fights?

Sisk: Neither team enters this game being confused with the better Kentucky or Michigan squads of the past decade. The Wolverines are kind of a two-trick pony between Hunter Dickinson on the block and Jett Howard on the perimeter. They seem to isolate Dickinson inside more than in the past when they ran a lot of beautiful continuity offense. The Wildcats have their own offensive issues as John Calipari continues to tinker with looks that complement his lineups. Oscar Tshiebwe and Dickinson will present a monster matchup in the trenches. The Kentucky center will need help. It is time for the entire cast of perimeter players to step up and make shots versus quality competition.

Graf: I think Kentucky is the better team on paper in this matchup, but there’s some things that I’ll be watching for. Hunter Dickinson is one of the best players in the country and excels when operating from the mid-range and perimeter. Oscar Tshiebwe struggled to guard Drew Timme in that space, but Timme was much more downhill than Dickinson likes to get. Dickinson will try to stretch the floor with jumpers and that will take away some of Tshiebwe’s rebounding ability in theory. Kentucky should win the perimeter battle in this one, as Michigan has only one player, Jett Howard, who averages over 30-percent from the outside on more than one attempt per game. Howard is Michigan’s main perimeter threat and will most likely be checked by Cason Wallace for most of the evening.

How important is this game for Kentucky?

Drummond: Any way you slice it, the Wildcats need a quality win in a big way. The players need to see that they can get the job done against a name-brand opponent, and UK fans need something to get them back to the preseason excitement level. If you lose this game to Michigan, there aren't going to be many paths toward a No. 1 seed in Louisville. With all that in mind, this is an unusually crucial early-December game.

Sisk: This is a huge game for the psyche of the Kentucky team and fan base. They have been overpowering versus mid-major competition, but were mired in neutral against Michigan State and Gonzaga. They need a marquee win to booster morale and confidence. Big Blue Nation just needs to feel good about their program. This goes back farther than a month. There is also the issue of quality wins on Selection Sunday. A win could go a long way in the short term and in the long run.

Graf: This game and the UCLA game are Kentucky’s last chances for a name brand win that will hold weight in the 2022-2023 season before they enter conference play. Those two games will go a long way in terms of seeding on Selection Sunday and will also get the fan base energized as they enter the new year. Kentucky has taken care of business and looked crisp for the most part against inferior competition, but has yet to answer the call when facing a power five program.

What's the prediction and why?

Drummond: Michigan 67, Kentucky 63 -- I haven't seen anything that offers much confidence in the Cats beating a quality opponent with the style and lineup combinations that UK is using right now.

Sisk: I’m going to say the same thing here I said against Gonzaga. The roster is better. But they are going to have to get things going. I’m very intrigued by some of the looks Calipari broke out in the final 12 minutes versus Bellarmine. Can UK get Dickinson lifted out onto the floor, and allow the guards to play in space? It won’t be flawless. I look for more of a slow paced half-court game, but expect a positive outcome in a lower scoring game. Kentucky 68 Michigan 61.

Graf: Kentucky 72, Michigan 67. Kentucky’s shooters contribute much more than they have in other marquee matchups this season and knock down some timely threes. Oscar and Dickinson have a very fun matchup that’s close to a stalemate, and the difference in the game is Sahvir Wheeler and Cason Wallace.

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