Tonight Kentucky has a chance for another Quadrant 1 win that could make a top seed more likely on Selection Sunday.
LSU is visiting Rupp Arena armed with a No. 17 NET ranking and a win over the Wildcats from earlier this season in Baton Rouge.
Cats Illustrated's David Sisk, Justin Rowland, and Jeff Drummond offer Kentucky-LSU predictions after a discussion of the game.
What are you most interested in seeing during tonight's game?
David Sisk: The same points of interest probably won’t change from Alabama to LSU. How will Kentucky perform against a good SEC team without its starting backcourt? Against the Tide John Calipari basically went with five players who all played at a high level. They will have to do it this time against a stronger defensive unit.
Justin Rowland: LSU has lost five out of its last six games on the road, including its most recent road game against South Carolina. While teams have a tendency to circle the game against Kentucky, how capable is LSU of going on the road and playing a very good basketball game? It's possible that LSU's "very good" could be enough to cause real problems with Kentucky's health issues affecting roster readiness, but they haven't been playing at that level away from home. I think we should know in the first 5-8 minutes of the game how real their upset bid might be. They're going to have to really disrupt Kentucky on offense. This is still KenPom's No. 3 adjusted defense but like David said, that's not as formidable as it was a month and a half ago.
But of course the big question is how Kentucky can function and whether it can thrive two games in a row without Sahvir Wheeler and TyTy Washington. LSU is much better positioned to cause problems for Kentucky offensively than Alabama. I can't see UK scoring like it did against the Tide. And I think generally speaking strong defensive teams are tougher matchups for Kentucky than teams that lean heavily on its offense. Alabama played at such a high level early, I don't think UK has to play as well as it did against the Tide, but it can't play its C game and expect to win.
Drummond: I’m expecting this one to be quite a bit different from the Alabama game from the standpoint that the Crimson Tide were willing to play fast and get up and down the court with the Cats. LSU will be quite content with another rock fight like we saw in Baton Rouge. This one should be played in the 60s or low 70s, so I’m curious to see how UK performs in the halfcourt offense without Sahvir Wheeler and TyTy Washington once again, which sounds likely. Can the Cats generate enough offense against one of the better defenses in the country?
Who needs to step up for Kentucky?
Sisk: The pressure will once again be on the backcourt duo of Davion Mintz and Kellan Grady, but I’m going to choose all five starting Wildcats. Against Bama Mintz was solid, Grady shot like Steph Curry, Jacob Toppin played freely at the three, Keion Brooks impacted the game in every way, and Oscar Tshiebwe was dominant. I’m not asking for much, just more of the same.
Rowland: I'll go with Davion Mintz because of the way LSU can turn you over and go the other direction. He had a solid game against Alabama in spite of shooting poorly and not really stuffing the stat sheet. He played steady basketball and attacked at good times to set the tone and give UK put back opportunities. He will need to pick his spots well again, and will need to knock down some jumpers, too. You could go with Kellan Grady. He doesn't need 25 points but they will need backcourt scoring punch and he's best equipped to provide it.
Drummond: Davion Mintz is the guy I have my eye on. He played a nice overall game against Alabama, but the Cats might need more scoring punch from him in this one. I’m not counting on Keion Brooks and Jacob Toppin combining for 31 again, so it would be nice to see Mintz have a big night from the perimeter.
What's your prediction for the game?
Sisk: LSU’s defense will offer more of a challenge. I don’t look for Kentucky to run loose, but the Tigers aren’t the same on that end of the floor as they were earlier. On the offensive end they are challenged. They are last in the league in offensive efficiency according to KenPom. They are also last in turnovers and assists to field goals. I just don’t think they can score with the Cats. Kentucky 79 LSU 71.
Rowland: I see this game getting into the 70s and that will be a comfortable place for them given who is out. To go on the road and win in Rupp, even with UK missing guys because of the crowd in a later game, I just think you have to be better than LSU has been playing lately ... especially on the road. LSU hasn't shot 50% from the field in its last 11 games. The Tigers have been turning the ball over quite a bit, too. I'm just not sure they're good enough offensively down the stretch on the road even if the defense makes it messy. Kentucky 75, LSU 70. But I do think it's more likely that UK doesn't play out of this world and has to gut it out late.
Drummond: Kentucky 69, LSU 62 - This will not likely be one you’ll want to save for your collection. It’s gonna be ugly -- no-alibi kind of ugly -- but if the Cats can survive and post another shorthanded W, they will gladly take it.
