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Published Jan 21, 2022
UK-Auburn Predictions
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Justin Rowland  •  CatsIllustrated
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Although the SEC regular season schedule is still young Saturday's game between Kentucky and Auburn will have major ramifications for the league race.

It's also a game that would probably be Kentucky's biggest win of the regular season when it comes to the resume on Selection Sunday.

But it's not going to be easy with the Tigers riding a No. 2 national ranking and ultra confident at home.

Cats Illustrated staff members share takes on the game as well as predictions.

What are you most interested to see in Saturday's game between UK and Auburn?

Jeff Drummond: This matchup reminds me a bit of Kentucky's season-opener against Duke. I think these teams are fairly equal when you look at the rosters and their season stats (the Cats are actually slightly better in just about every category) but the Tigers will have the best player on the floor in the form of 6-foot-10 freshman forward and soon-to-be NBA lottery pick Jabari Smith. That's a bit like the edge Duke had with Paolo Banchero in the opener. And, unlike that Duke matchup, Auburn will be playing on their homecourt with a fan base whipped into a full frenzy by Bruce Pearl. Will the Cats be able to overcome both of those things?

David Sisk: Where does one start when it comes to what we're interested to see? Kentucky cannot get off to a bad start like they did at Texas A&M. Auburn is too good. They won't let the Cats hang around because of poor shooting. I've watched them several times at home, and each time they have jumped to big leads early on. UK doesn't have to start out hot, but they don't need to lose the game in the first ten minutes yet. Then how does Kentucky handle the pressure this time around? They almost got to 20 turnovers at Texas A&M, and that can't happen again either. Someone needs to step up and have a big offensive game for Kentucky. Auburn will score points, so somebody needs to deflate the arena because they can't be stopped. Finally, the Cats need to outfight the Tigers down the stretch just as they did last Tuesday night. In other words, a lot of things will have to go right if they win this game.

Travis Graf: I’m mostly looking forward to the matchup itself. It’s a marquee game featuring two hot teams that could determine a lot for seeding in March. It’s going to be a very fun game for all college basketball fans to watch. Both teams average just over 80 points per game in conference play and contain some star power at the collegiate level as well as in terms of NBA prospects. Does Kentucky’s back court push them over the top? Does UK have an answer for Jabari Smith? Can Walker Kessler get Oscar in foul trouble?

Justin Rowland: It seems like every time Kentucky plays at Auburn they play at an extremely high level for an extended part of the game. Maybe early, maybe late. But you have to expect it. How much does Kentucky's maturity help them handle the environment they're going to face at Auburn? Kentucky is used to facing big road crowds, but not so much crowds that stay energized because they have an elite product to cheer for. That Auburn is 9-0 at home isn't surprising. They've been good away from home. But they've won every home game by double digits so far this year. Wheeler was pressing and all out of sorts against Texas A&M. How he responds and bounces back is going to be very interesting. There's no reason to believe he won't bounce back, but this will be a challenge.

Who has to step up for Kentucky?

Drummond: I think Kellen Grady has to come up with a big offensive performance for the Cats to leave Auburn with a win. Kentucky got away with winning a game played in the 60s at Texas A&M, but I don't think that will happen again. This one will be closer to the 80s, and Grady has to knock down a handful of 3s and be around that 17- to 20-point range to give UK a chance to win.

Sisk: I'm not sure where to go on this one. Everyone needs to play well for the Cats. Oscar Tshiebwe will have his hands full against the best front line Bruce Pearl has had. Keion Brooks and Jacob Toppin will have a monumental task of trying to slow down Jabari Smith. The guards need to score without turning the ball over. I'm going to take the guys that didn't play up to par at A&M: Sahvir Wheeler and Kellan Grady. Wheeler was a turnover machine for much of the game. John Calipari took the blame by putting him in ball screens and thus inviting the traps. I don't think they will do that this time, but Auburn will try to push him down the sideline and keep him on the side. Auburn's guards are quick. Wheeler can match that. He also needs to hand out his own type of pressure. Grady is their elite shooter, and the Cats will need that. He had problems against the Aggies' quickness. Kentucky definitely needs him to bounce back and make shots Saturday.

Graf: It seems like every other game is either a Keion Brooks or Jacob Toppin game depending on matchups. This game screams Jacob Toppin on paper due to his defensive versatility and ability to somewhat keep elite prospects in check. He was the best at defending Duke’s Paolo Banchero. He’ll have the same opportunity to match up with projected top 5 pick Jabari Smith, who has been an elite inside-out player for the Tigers.

Rowland: I like picking Brooks and Toppin here. They don't have to have great statistical games but they have to play very well. There were some times when I thought Brooks looked a bit slow to react on the court last time out and those guys have both been very good at times and really off at other times. This would be a good time to step up. But I'll always feel like Kellan Grady is a big x-factor. If he struggles, I don't think they have much of a chance. Kentucky is a very different team when he knocks down several three-pointers, and you'd especially think so in a game like this.

What's your prediction for the outcome?

Drummond: Auburn 83, Kentucky 78 -- This one could go either way, but it's difficult to pick the Cats. If it was being played at Rupp Arena, I might flip those scores. I just think you have to give the edge to the Tigers when they have Jabari Smith and they're playing at home. That being said, it's a huge opportunity. You're not going to get docked too much for losing a game on the road against the nation's No. 2 team, but if you find a way to pull this out, people might start talking about UK as a legit Final Four contender.

Sisk: I am looking for a tremendous game. It is certainly a winnable game for the Cats, but a lot of things will have to go right. It is going to be a rock concert type of environment against one of the very best teams in the country. Texas A&M was great preparation, but Auburn is better. They also aren't going to go one for a zillion from deep like the Aggies did. So much is going to have to go right for Kentucky to pull it out. I would take Kentucky in Rupp, and I think the road setting is going to be a little too much. Kentucky will fight hard but in the end the Tigers are a little better in a memorable game. Auburn 83 Kentucky 78

Graf: Auburn 84, Kentucky 80. This turns into one of the most fun games of the college basketball season thus far, with both teams pushing the pace and hitting a ton of shots in the half court and in transition. Sadly for Kentucky, they fall just short because the Tigers have the most talented player on the court and Auburn starts to find their three point stroke again.

Rowland: Kentucky 86, Auburn 85. We've seen the level Kentucky is capable of playing at. They aren't going to play like that every time out but I think they will on Saturday. They got about as little from their Big Four (Wheeler, Washington, Grady, Tshiebwe) as they could have and still gutted out a tough win at A&M. I expect those guys to play at a higher level and win one of the biggest games of the college basketball season.

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