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Published Feb 26, 2022
UK-Arkansas Predictions
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Justin Rowland  •  CatsIllustrated
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Kentucky has proven resilient in two consecutive wins without Sahvir Wheeler and TyTy Washington but Saturday brings a different kind of challenge.

Arkansas is one of the SEC's top teams and the Wildcats are going into Bud Walton Arena where it can be a very difficult atmosphere.

Cats Illustrated writers offer takes and predictions on how the game might play out.

What are you most interested in seeing on Saturday?

Jeff Drummond: This is starting to feel like a cliffhanger drama that keeps you hanging on from one episode to the next, but I'm interested to see if Kentucky has either Sahvir Wheeler or TyTy Washington returning from their injury hiatus. My hunch is the Cats may have Wheeler back at the point, which would be big against the style of play the Razorbacks employ. I keep hearing that we may not see Washington again until SEC Tournament time, so the Cats still have to find a way to compensate for his playmaking on the offensive end of the floor. Can Bryce Hopkins be part of that equation once again? I'm also interested to see if Arkansas can stay red-hot. The Hogs lost their first three SEC games this season but have reeled off 11 of 12 since then, including a win over Auburn. To have victories over both UK and Auburn would go a long way toward boosting their NCAA tourney seed.

David Sisk: Alabama, Auburn, Kansas, LSU, Tennessee, and now Arkansas. Kentucky has faced some huge road games this season, and Saturday's top-25 matchup in Fayetteville will be as big as any. The Razorbacks have won 12 of 13. The key to their success has been the defense. Their defensive efficiency is ranked tops in the Southeastern Conference according to KenPom. The Cats have played good defenses before, but I look for Eric Musselman to be more disciplined than Will Wade. Don't expect him to extend the defense, but to contest everything from the three-point line in. There are two questions for me. First, can Kentucky find an offensive comfort zone against a physical, packed in defense? Secondly, will this be a low or high scoring affair?

Justin Rowland: Arkansas is 15-1 at home and Kentucky has a few road losses. The Razorbacks have won 12 out of 13 games. It's not like the road has been an impossible task for UK this year but short-handed how are they going to handle the press? While LSU is the No. 3 defense on KenPom and Arkansas is No. 14, on the road where the home team tends to be more aggressive and the away team more tentative, that will be a real challenge for the Wildcats.

Finally, it's going to take somebody stepping up and having a really big game. I'm talking 20+ from Grady, 20 & 8 from Keion, a 20/20 from Oscar, Mintz's biggest game of the year. Something, at least one of those things has to happen, so who steps up?

Who needs to step up for Kentucky?

Drummond: I'm going with Keion Brooks, who is coming off a rough game against LSU but has already shown the capacity to step up big in a hostile environment during his career. Who could forget his huge performance in the blowout of Kansas? The Cats could use some more of that magic against Arkansas. He'll have a decent matchup in this one. Brooks needs to take advantage of it.

Sisk: Which Kentucky perimeter player can step up and create their own shot? The entire cast has done a pretty good job of doing that in the two games TyTy Washington and Sahvir Wheeler have been out. To do that a third time they will have to play aggressively like they did in the second half against LSU, except this time it will be on the road. I'm also going to mention Oscar Tshiebwe. His matchup against Jaylin Williams is one that will be highlighted. Tshiebwe is a more physical player while Willaims likes to step out and stretch the floor. If this game proves to be another rock fight there is no other player I would want in my foxhole than the Kentucky center.

Rowland: This was my question. Who steps up? I'll go with Grady. He's got to knock down several outside shots in my mind. But not only that, we've seen that he's going to get and will take a lot more shots inside the arc with his typical starting backcourt mates out. This is a case where Grady has to make the most of his increased opportunity.

What's your prediction for the game?

Drummond: Arkansas 77, Kentucky 71 -- It's hard to envision the Cats winning three straight games shorthanded with the finale coming on the road at a place as difficult to play as Arkansas. If UK can pull this one off, it may truly be a special season in the making, but my official pick has to be the Razorbacks in a close one.

Sisk: The Cats have performed admirably without their starting backcourt. The wins over Alabama and LSU were impressive ones, but this one is outside the friendly confines or Rupp Arena. The road losses to Auburn, LSU, and Tennessee all came without a complete roster. If Kentucky can win a top-25 road game without these two it will be the first time. Arkansas also offers the style that causes Kentucky the most trouble; a slower, physical halfcourt style. If Kentucky can get the game to 75 or more I like their chances, but I think the Razorbacks win a slower paced struggle. Arkansas 73 Kentucky 67

Rowland: It's pretty simple for me. I think Kentucky is good enough to beat a good team without its starting backcourt at home, but on the road where they have been more vulnerable, against a team of Arkansas' caliber, I can't quite pick them to pull out the W. Arkansas 78, Kentucky 72

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