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Published Sep 5, 2021
Thoughts on CFB's Week 1
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Justin Rowland  •  CatsIllustrated
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In recent years Cats Illustrated publisher Justin Rowland has made a habit of surveying the college football landscape after every week of action and posting thoughts on what everything means, both for the sport and for Kentucky.

Here are those takes after Week 1, which included UK's 45-10 win against ULM but also a lot of other games in the SEC and beyond.

... An important win for Kirby Smart. It's not going to define his legacy and Smart already had victories over Florida, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma, the latter in the College Football Playoff. But UGA's 10-3 win against Clemson will help change perceptions about Smart, who has built the Bulldogs up but hasn't gotten over the hump (Alabama is a big hump).

Georgia is now in excellent position for the CFP. They already probably could have gotten into the playoff with a loss, as a 12-1 SEC team is always going to be in good shape, but now they're in even better shape. It wouldn't be a shock to see a two-loss UGA (depending on who the losses are against) have a shot at getting in, because Clemson's going to run the table or come close. It could conceivably be the best win that any team in the country has during the regular season.

... But is UGA's offense good enough to get past Alabama? The Bulldogs won the matchup of titans, but only scored 10 points. Not to pick on running back Zamir White, but he posted a trolling message to Clemson's defense on social media when he accounted for about 75 yards rushing and UGA didn't even score an offensive touchdown. That's the kind of game where you'll take a win any way you can get it, but the obvious question is whether they can win that type of game against the Crimson Tide. I've tried not to tie Smart's legacy to what he does against Alabama because we're talking about easily the greatest dynasty in the sport's history and a program that's almost playing on a different level altogether. But this is going to be one of his best opportunities, on paper, to get over that hump and I'm not sure I saw enough from JT Daniels' unit to feel good about them doing that. But that defense is ferocious.

You're going to be hard-pressed to find a harder-hitting game all season.

... Clemson's ongoing issue ... The offensive line. The Tigers have lost four of their last five "big games", the kind of games Dabo Swinney had once seemed to thrive in. It seems like Clemson's defense is just as good as ever. But the Tigers offense has regressed. It's still very good compared to the rest of the country, but the offensive line has been an issue in big games. Until Clemson's offensive line gets back to an elite level they're going to struggle to win on the very biggest stage.

... First impression of Alabama. I had Alabama No. 1 in my own preseason top-25 rankings posted last week and would obviously keep them there after that 44-13 dismantling of Miami. It's kind of surreal to see Miami outclassed physically and athletically because that usually isn't their issue. But they were. The really funny thing is I thought Miami was playing pretty gritty early on, holding Bama to a couple of field goals on possessions, and then you look at the scoreboard and it's soon 27-0. Alabama is just relentless and unforgiving.

Alabama's freshman quarterback, Bryce Young, watched Mac Jones set the sport on fire last year, and all the talk before last season about the youngster eventually winning the job seems comical in hindsight. Opponents are probably not enjoying that humor right now because he set Alabama records for yards (344) and touchdowns (4) in a debut with the Tide.

I found it humorous to see the pregame graphic contrasting D'Eriq King's insane experience with Young's lack of it. You had to know that wasn't going to matter at all.

... Why are teams signing up for these games? ... This weekend I mentioned on Twitter that I'd like someone to research what these season opening games against Alabama do to the programs that offer themselves as sacrificial victims to Nick Saban. It has to do something to build yourself up all offseason, to convince yourselves that all the naysayers and outsiders are crazy, that you're really going to be different ... only to suffer the same fate as all the others before you. It's a reality check. It's a status reminder. It brings you down to size, quickly. I would never sign up to play Alabama in Week 1 (or probably any time).

... Don't judge Oklahoma too harshly yet ... My jaw hit the floor when I flipped over to the Oklahoma game in time to catch Tulane pulling within 40-35 and then recovering an onside kick. The Sooners buckled down after that. But I'll admit, it surprised me that a very promising OU team with a defense trending in the right direction had this kind of setback. A win's a win. Survive and advance. Play well the rest of the way or even eek out the rest and they're still in the playoff. But 40-35 at home against Tulane?

The more I've thought it over the less I'm reading into this game. Last year OU lost a couple of games early and finished red hot as one of the nation's best teams. Let me be clear: I'm not predicting them to win the title. But I would still predict them to reach the playoff and have a chance to reverse the narrative in that semifinal.

Tulane is a better team than many probably realize and the Green Wave played as well as they could have. The one thing I'm skittish about is Spencer Rattler. He had some great moments last year but there were also times when he was not close to the level of the greats before him. Yeah, he was a freshman, but I still was not as blown away with him as with the others Riley has coached.

I'll add, to those concerned about OU joining the SEC, this is not a program that routinely overpowers average opponents. I'd expect them to still be vulnerable enough defensively when they enter the league that it's going to be a contestable game for a lot of SEC programs.

... Another game I'm not reading much into ... Iowa State's 16-10 win against Northern Iowa. Iowa State is preseason top-10 not because they're loaded with future first round picks, but because they're tremendously experienced, have a solid quarterback, a 1,600 yard running back returning, and a great head coach in Matt Campbell. I don't know how many they'll win or lose, but I fully expect the Cyclones to be a problem for most teams they will or might face. Next week's game against Iowa is going to be fantastic. But the Cyclone offense has to get a lot better and quick or that Hawkeye defense is going to pulverize them.

... Virginia Tech's win over No. 10 North Carolina ... I had UNC ranked fairly high just like everyone else and a few things stood out from the Hokies' win over the Tar Heels in Blacksburg. For starters, far too many people shrugged off the impact of losing the skill position talent UNC did. They lost two running backs who will play a ton in the NFL this year and two outstanding wide receivers. Other than Alabama, they lost as much skill talent as any team in the country. Sam Howell is an outstanding talent but WR Josh Downs was the only player that caliber that he had against VT. Secondly, the Virginia Tech secondary played outstanding. They've been known for that over the years dating back to pretty early in the Bud Foster/Frank Beamer eras so it wasn't a surprise but they really dominated UNC's skill guys and made some tremendous plays. Third, UNC's offensive line wasn't good at all and that could be an issue. Finally, Mack Brown has recruited at a very high level and the expectation has been the defense would improve. It got a lot better over the course of the game but a lot of their most talented "high ceiling" defensive players are still young and haven't hit their stride in college yet. I think they'll still win probably nine, maybe even 10 games, but this was one of the four toughest games on their schedule and they failed the test. Mack was right post-game: They were overrated.

... Chip Kelly turning the corner at UCLA? ... Before this season UCLA was an interesting team on paper. It looked like things could break either way for the Bruins, but eight wins or so wasn't unrealistic. Now after beating LSU and soundly we have to start wondering how high this team's ceiling might be. Can they win the Pac-12? It would be silly to say no, but it's too early to be confident that they will.

UCLA won 38-27 but it could have been worse. The Bruins rushed 47 times for 210 yards and two scores, and you'll take that every time out against a team with the depth of talent that LSU is supposed to have on the defensive line. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson only passed the ball 16 times but had 260 yards in the air.

Before the season my upset of the year was UK over LSU because Orgeron is such a big question mark for me. I'm not changing that pick now.

Thompson-Robinson is not an elite quarterback and UCLA will probably go as far as he takes them. But this team is physically impressive and has a lot of talent. Chip Kelly always gets that ground game going and appears to have a team capable of making some real noise. That's not surprising. The only surprise is it taking this long.

... Wake-up call for Indiana football ... Tom Allen has done a great job in Bloomington. It's not an easy place to win. But they've had a couple of reality checks their last two times out. Lane Kiffin's first Ole Miss team beat them in last year's bowl game, even as a middling SEC team, and they were just blown out by Iowa 34-6 on the road. The Hawkeyes' defense chipped in with scores and Indiana was never really a threat. This offseason there were some talking as though IU could be in position to contend for second in their division of the Big Ten, and they were ranked right there with Penn State, but Week 1 didn't bode well.

... Speaking of Penn State ... I think you just have to throw out what happened to the Lions last year. They had a weird schedule with COVID last year, weirder than it was for most teams because James Franklin had the team at home when most others were starting up after the league's botched handling of the rollout. They lost a bunch in a row to start the year before rallying to win several. I don't think last year's struggles really translate to this year. We can say that with confidence after their 16-10 win at Camp Randall Stadium. Wisconsin was thought to be a playoff contender this year.

A lot of us have been waiting for Graham Mertz to take Wisconsin's offense to the next level. He was one of the nation's top quarterback recruits a couple of years ago. Penn State shut him down: 22/37, 185 yards, 2 picks and only 5 yards per attempt. Even more impressive for PSU, Wisconsin ran the ball 58 times and only averaged three yards per carry. They're the Buckeyes' biggest threat in the Big Ten and James Franklin has things back on track.

... Kansas storms the field ... For a 17-14 win against South Dakota. There were reportedly "we want Bama" chants at halftime. I love this sport, and that's all there is to say about that.

... Shoutout to Mel Tucker at Michigan State. His Spartans blew out Northwestern 38-21 in Evanston and looked good doing it. They beat NU last year as well but this looked different. They could be in the mix for third in their division after OSU and PSU. If Tucker had successfully wooed Vince Marrow from UK they'd really be in business.

... Scott Frost is a dead man walking at Nebraska ... No revelation or hot take here, but with the cloud of an NCAA investigation coupled with the Huskers doing the same things they've done for a long time (most are not good things, by the way) they're in a hole and don't seem to be climbing out any time soon. It's amazing how NU has made seemingly the wrong choice every step of the way since the end of the Tom Osborne era. They've gotten worse under just about every coach they've hired. Maybe the really surprising thing is that Nebraska was able to be elite for as long as they were, as the game and recruiting realities were changing around them.

Granted, Nebraska took care of business on Saturday, but the Illinois team that beat NU in Week 1 just lost to UTSA. That's rubbing salt in the wound.

... Is the David Cutcliffe era winding down? ... I've always said that what David Cutcliffe has done at Duke is one of the great rebuilding jobs of my lifetime. People forget, Duke before Cutcliffe wasn't a whole lot better than Kansas has been the past decade. He made them very respectable and one of the better teams in the ACC some years. But things have gone stale and their 31-28 loss to Charlotte (a great game, by the way) is the latest piece of evidence that Duke has at least plateaued and is perhaps falling. Last year Duke was 2-9 and the year before was 5-7. Their running back, Mataeo Durant, was an absolute truck and rushed for 255 yards and three touchdowns. He looks impressive. Charlotte won't be a bad team, either. But that's a game you can't lose coming off two straight losing seasons.

... Terry Wilson update ... Kentucky's 2018 and 2020 starting quarterback was 20/26 for 174 yards, three touchdowns and no picks in New Mexico's 27-17 win against Houston Baptist. He hit on some nice throws but overall it was very much a mixed bag considering the competition. It will be interesting to see how he does the rest of the way but there's something positive to build on. The only other time Wilson has had three touchdown passes in a college game was against Louisville and Bobby Petrino's last Cardinal team in 2018.

... Texas handles Louisiana .... The team formerly known as UL-Lafayette lost 38-18 in Austin for a big first Longhorn win under Steve Sarkisian. The Cajuns were great last year and hopes were high this year with so many key pieces returning but this outcome was a far cry from the games Louisiana was able to pull off early last year. A lot of Group of Five teams with rankings or some hype in the preseason make me nervous because a lot of times it's less about them having overwhelming talent and more about chemistry, pieces fitting, and things clicking, and we don't tend to know that in advance. So the outcome does not surprise me. Freshman Hudson Card had a nice first game.

... No. 20 Washington loses to Montana ... This was maybe the biggest surprise of the weekend for me. I had Washington even higher than 20 in my rankings and thought they could contend for the Pac-12 title. The Huskies seemed to have a balanced roster with strong players at every position but in a 13-7 loss the Huskies did not score after the first quarter and lost the fourth by a decisive 10-0 margin. UW managed to lose in spite of its defense beating up the Grizzlies for most of the game. Rushing for 53 yards against an FCS team is inexcusable and prompts grave concerns.

... Tennessee takes care of business ... It was not always pretty and Bowling Green kept it close for a half but the Volunteers got off to a good start in the Josh Heupel era with a 38-6 win over the MAC opponent. I'm very much of the mind that we can't read much into this game because of the quality of the opposition, but we could say the same thing about Kentucky (the difference being, I think, that UK has more proven parts than UT).

UT rushed the ball 64 times against only 24 passes and the extremity of that ratio was interesting to see. Tennessee rushed for 326 yards and only allowed 32 on the ground. That emphasis may have been Heupel trying to establish a blue collar identity right off the bat. Joe Milton did not look great at quarterback.

... Stanford is going to be bad, as expected ... This is a "you're aging" moment for me. When I was growing up Stanford was pretty irrelevant in the Pac-12. Then for what has been a long time they've been a national brand. Stanford isn't expected to win many games this year and losing 24-7 to K-State was as uninspiring as most have expected the Cardinal to be.

... Arkansas was on the ropes but surged back ... The Razorbacks were down by two scores at one point (17-7) in the second half but Arkansas surged to a 38-17 win thanks to a 21-0 margin in the fourth quarter. For most of the game I was wondering if Sam Pittman was squandering all the goodwill he built up for last year's better than expected 3-7 season in the nation's toughest division against the nation's toughest schedule. But this is the kind of thing a Pittman team has shown it will do. I like how they fight and make you earn everything. So far his teams have had really strong intangibles that are tough to quantify. I like that he's an offensive line guy and is pretty steady and practical instead of somebody with a strict vision.

... Maryland downs West Virginia ... The Terrapins have recruited very well of late but the question has been whether the staff would turn that talent and athletic ability into a finely tuned product on the field. That 30-24 season opening win against WVU was a great moment for Mike Locksley. I'll say, my first reaction was, "Isn't Maryland always a great September team?" Whether the record bears that out, it sure seems like they tend to come out of the gate strong before struggling later. We'll see if that's changed.

... Thoughts on Missouri, UK's next opponent ... I'll be writing much more on this so stay tuned and I'll keep it brief here. But UK looked more impressive than Missouri in Week 1, and that's while acknowledging that Mizzou's opponent, CMU, probably would be a 17-point favorite against the team Kentucky just beat. Still, I think Kentucky has more talent and even more playmakers.

Missouri was fine on offense with Connor Bazelak going 21/32 for 257 and two scores and Tyler Badie rushing for 203 yards.

Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks has the unit Tiger fans should be worrying about. CMU was effective establishing the run and produced 301 passing yards. CMU had eight passing plays that went 15 yards or longer and that seems relevant given what we saw from Kentucky's offense this week.

... Mississippi State survives La Tech with improbable fourth quarter ... Louisiana Tech was in full control of this game in Starkville but Will Rogers played like an All-American in the fourth quarter, finishing with 370 yards and three scores as MSU won 35-34. Even going back to Washington State, Leach had some dicey early season games in his track record, so it's tough to tell if this was just another struggle or if the team might not be very improved. That's TBD.

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