The five biggest games on Kentucky's 2018 schedule

While the overall win/loss total is the most important measurement of a program's progress and success, or lack thereof, some games are more important than others.

Not until the end of the season will we be able to look back and identify the most important 2018 Kentucky football games with perfect clarity, but here's one take on the five games that could mean the most to the Wildcats this upcoming season.

5. Central Michigan at Kentucky, September 1st

You could pick any number of other games for this spot, but this year's season opener is a little more consequential than some others have been.

The reason is simple: Nobody, absolutely no one, knows what to expect from Kentucky's quarterbacks this year. This first game is going to say a lot. It could help determine whether Gunnar Hoak or Terry Wilson is Kentucky's starting quarterback. It could be the beginning of a three-year starting career for one of those two quarterbacks. We'll start to learn about what kind of game Kentucky wants to play, what tempo the Wildcats want to pursue, and the simple eye test on offense, defense and special teams will tell us quite a bit with a trip to the Swamp the following week.

There's more to lose than gain in this game. A loss would be brutal (although as the 2016 Cats showed after the loss to USM, not necessarily devastating). A win is expected, and rightfully so, but perhaps just as important will be what the game tells us about UK's quarterbacks and how they respond to pressure.

4. Kentucky at Tennessee, November 10th

Quick, when's the last time Kentucky won in Knoxville? It's been a long time, and any streak that long needs to be broken. The long losing streak to UT feels like a distant memory and UK has gotten that monkey off its back, but winning in Neyland would be a great springboard to a strong finish to the season. It's also a divisional game which matters in the conference standings.

Then there's the simple fact that it's always a big deal to Kentucky, to its program and fans, when the Wildcats can knock off Tennessee.

If UK beats Tennessee in Jeremy Pruitt's first year it could be a tone setter in the series, especially since no one seems to really know what to expect from the Volunteers in this new era.

3. South Carolina at Kentucky, September 29th

Kentucky has won this head to head meeting four years in a row and it's safe to say the Gamecocks will hear about that leading up to their trip to Lexington. Kentucky has run the ball well against the Gamecocks recently but this is the most talented team Will Muschamp will have fielded in Columbia.

With South Carolina a trendy choice to make some noise in the East and take some steps forward this year, an early season win against the 'Cocks would capture some positive publicity.

Kentucky has a very difficult start to conference play (at Florida, Mississippi State, this game and at Texas A&M). This game is sandwiched between contests against the Bulldogs and Aggies, and neither of those games will be easy at all. One could make the case this is the most winnable game during the first half of UK's conference slate, in spite of South Carolina's improved talent.

As with the Florida game, if Kentucky wants to climb the SEC East ladder, notching this head to head win will be important.

2. Kentucky at Louisville, November 24th

Kentucky took one of three against Louisville during the Lamar Jackson era and in the big picture that's probably not a bad record considering what he accomplished and the kind of player he was. In the post-Jackson era, Louisville has some questions. The Cardinals are still stacked with offensive talent at the skill positions and Jawon Pass won't be a slouch. But this is a much better opportunity for a fair fight with a Heisman Trophy winner no longer touching the ball on every play.

This game won't have any impact on Kentucky's conference record but there is something to be said about ending the regular season on a high note. A late November win at Louisville did a lot for the program two years ago and it would again this year, especially with several top prospects from Jefferson County likely to sign somewhere the very next month. In-state bragging rights always matter to fans, and it's time for Kentucky to reassert itself in a rivalry that has been one-sided recently with one exception.

Assuming Kentucky will be bowl eligible (or maybe this game could make them that), selection committees will be watching this outcome closely.

1. Kentucky at Florida, September 8th

Mark Stoops is tired of hearing about the Florida game but he's going to hear about it, as every other Kentucky coach in recent history has, until the streak is broken.

This year's game is especially important not only because the streak has grown. It's Dan Mullen's first Gator team and while there are a lot of pundits expecting Florida to finish second in the East, behind Georgia, there are significant questions in Gainesville. It's not clear who Florida's quarterback will be and if you are traveling into the Swamp hoping to make some history an unsettled UF situation under center has to be viewed as a positive.

Many fans have said that Kentucky would have fared better against Florida in recent times if the game in Lexington had taken place in November as it used to. But this year it might be good to catch the Gators early in the schedule.

Kentucky fans know well that the tone of the fan base turns sour after every loss in this series. A win in UK's second game of the year could set the tone for a special season, but it would also help put fans in the seats during games at Kroger Field.

If UK pulls off an upset at Florida in Week 2 it could also signal that Kentucky has a poised quarterback to build around, because that atmosphere won't be easy to navigate.

On top of all that, the No. 2 spot in the East is pretty wide open even if UGA is widely viewed as the division favorite. Taking this head to head tiebreaker would do quite a bit in that race for final ranking bragging rights. It would also be a big win to any bowl selection committee and, as a bonus, could help UK recruiting in Florida.

Many prospects will be making their decisions during the football season, and if prospects see Kentucky win a game against a nationally recognized opponent it could be an immediate recruiting boost.