The case for and against Kentucky football in 2023
There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Kentucky football as the 2023 season approaches, but when you look at the schedule and start asking questions it quickly becomes apparent that there are reasons for caution as well.
When it comes to prognosticating, I tend to be a dialectical thinker and so like to lay out the merits of both positions to wrestle with the tension and try to find a safe middle ground position.
In that spirit, here's my attempt at compiling all the reasons to buy Kentucky football in 2023, while also listing the reasons someone might "sell" the Wildcats.
Form your own conclusion!
Reasons to buy Kentucky football in 2023
... Devin Leary has a chance to have a better season than Will Levis had in either 2021 or 2022. His 35/5 TD to INT ratio at NC State two seasons ago makes it easy to dream on his potential. Leary's an older, experienced college football player who was looking for a great situation to springboard him into the NFL and he picked Kentucky for a reason. If you've got a good quarterback situation, that can carry you a long way, especially if the offense hits its stride.
... There's no proven workhorse in the backfield but there are a ton of options from which Liam Coen and Jay Boulware should be able to find the "hot hand" in a given week. It also has the look of the best pass-catching backfield the program has had in some time, and Leary should be able to take advantage of that. The same is true at tight end where there's an embarrassment of depth options and some complementary players who should give Coen a lot of flexibility when it comes to building an offensive identity or game-planning for each week's opponent.
... The ceiling is very high for the receiving corps. Preseason publications don't seem to consider UK's receiving corps an "elite" unit nationally going into the season but we all saw what Barion Brown and Dane Key were capable of last season. They combined for 10 touchdown receptions as a true freshman duo in spite of the offense haven't all kinds of issues last year. If Brown can have a game against Georgia like he did, then just about anything is on the table. In a best case scenario these receivers become the kinds of weapons that take the passing game to the point where it's a bona fide problem for just about any team they might face. Throw in Tayvion Robinson, who had an off season last year, and someone like Anthony Brown, and there's a ton of dynamic play-making potential at the receiver position. It may also be true that elite wide receivers are just about the most impactful players in college football right now. If you're going to be great somewhere, it's not a bad place to be great, and that's the ceiling for this group.
... It could be the most improved offensive line in college football. Granted, even if that happens it doesn't mean the line will be better than average, but there are a lot of reasons to believe this line can be a lot better. A lot had to go wrong over several seasons to create the situation that Kentucky had on the line last year. In hindsight it seems like just about everything that could have gone wrong did go wrong.
... There are players on defense who can take the whole unit to another level. We have a pretty good feel for what kind of defense the Wildcats have under Brad White's watch. The floor is very high. If you go by per game numbers you can make the case it is consistently a top 20-25 unit. If you go by per play numbers (which factors tempo) then it's safely top-40 pretty much across the board. That's a high floor, and when you factor how Kentucky plays, it seems safe to say the defense will be good or better. Throw in the presence of Deone Walker on the defensive line and Trevin Wallace at linebacker - one of the best athletes Kentucky has had there in a long time - as well as someone like Jordan Lovett, who had a stellar first season, and there are players who can raise the ceiling of the unit with stellar individual play.
... Jay Boulware is coaching the special teams unit. That doesn't necessarily mean snap and hold issues are going to be magically solved or that the whole unit will take a big step forward, but assigning coordinator duties to a seasoned coach with experience in that role was a move that Mark Stoops needed to make. Special teams seems to be an area where a program like Kentucky can apply some focus and leverage an advantage against some opponents. What has been a strength at times should benefit from Boulware's focus. And just based on his recruiting focus on specialists, it seems like he's going to give the special teams a lot of attention.
Reasons to sell Kentucky football in 2023
... The quarterback situation is still precarious. Leary has been injured in two of the last three seasons and Levis took a lot of hits last year. He ultimately played injured for a good stretch of the year. On top of that, what's the backup situation like? Is Kentucky once again in a position where if the backup comes in, things are scaled back to such a degree that the team is barely recognizable on offense? No doubt, Leary looks like a good starter, but we all know things can change quickly and if they do Kentucky's situation isn't ideal. One can also say that Kentucky may have an all-conference player at quarterback, or Leary could be a middle of the pack SEC quarterback. Time will tell.
... There's no workhorse and Mark Stoops has been spoiled with workhorses. It's going to be a huge transition moving beyond the Benny Snell, Chris Rodriguez era. But it's a necessity because there's not a back like that on the roster. We saw the impact of a runner like that last season when Rodriguez was out of action and then we saw his impact when he returned. He was enough to make a huge difference even behind a struggling offensive line. There's no obvious similar solution this year and not having that in Coen's toolbelt will be an adjustment for the whole staff. It will also put more pressure on the passing game.
... Where's the receiver depth? Kentucky's going into a season without much of it. If there's an injury or God-forbid two, the depth could be very strained. That's just a reality that many programs will have to reckon with or learn to rectify on the fly in the portal era. If Kentucky had some combination of Chris Lewis, DeMarcus Harris, Chauncey Magwood, or Rashaan Lewis the floor for the unit would be higher.
... We still have no clue how good the offensive line is going to be. Yes, there are a lot of players coming in from the portal and they look like potential improvements on paper, but this is still a line that has to prove it after such an off year in 2022. We don't know how Jager Burton will fare at center and we've heard hype about the incoming tackles but let's see them do it. There doesn't seem to be much depth. There's certainly no proven depth and that's something the staff will hope to develop as the season presses on. This is a pretty big one. If the line goes from bad to below average, it's still going to be an issue. Even if it's average, there are games when it will presumably struggle.
... They're breaking in new cornerbacks. They seemed to do well in the transfer portal and it doesn't appear to be a glaring issue, but JQ Hardaway will go from 200 snaps at Cincinnati to possibly 600+ in the SEC and that's a significant step forward in what's going to be put on him. Andru Phillips has seen plenty of playing time but he's going to have as his primary assignment locking up some of the top WR1s in college football this year so that will be a huge change for him as well. Carrington Valentine and Keidron Smith gave Kentucky excellent play at cornerback last season and we can't take their absence for granted, especially given some of the teams they will face this year.
... Special teams have a long way to go. When you're going into a season you don't want to feel like any of your three units are a weakness, and Kentucky's special teams unit was a weakness last season when you factor all of it together. Boulware's addition is helpful and should bode well but there's a lot of improvement that needs to be made for this to be a quality group.
... The schedule is absolutely brutal and it's even tougher than you think. There may not be a team in college football with three games as tough as UK's contests against Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee. Just being realistic, most pundits will assume Kentucky's going 0-3 in those games. It doesn't mean they will, but be prepared to hear that for weeks. On top of that, Kentucky has lost 15 games in a row against SEC West opponents on the road and they're going to Starkville this year. Going to South Carolina looks more difficult now, and the game against South Carolina as well as the road game against Louisville come during an extremely difficult portion of the schedule when depth might be tested and there won't be any "off weeks" as there sometimes have been. There are going to be a couple of "must win" games during a stretch when Kentucky can't catch its breath. Heck, games against Florida and Missouri aren't chip shots.