Ten Friday Thoughts from Cats Illustrated publisher Justin Rowland the day after Thanksgiving ...
Kentucky vs Louisville: Stat Comparison ...
Points For: Louisville 32.9, Kentucky 31.6
Points Against: Kentucky 22.2, Louisville 24.7
Yards Per Play: Louisville 6.73, Kentucky 6.46
Yards Per Play Allowed: Kentucky: 5.39, Louisville: 5.60
Turnover Margin: Louisville +3, Kentucky -14
Third Down Conversions: Kentucky 50.79%, Louisville 39.74%
Third Down Conversions Allowed: Kentucky 39.31%, Louisville 34.64%
Red Zone Scoring (and TD rate): Louisville 89.74%, Kentucky 82.22%
More Louisville Numbers ...
- Louisville is only 14/20 on field goal attempts this season. Kentucky is also 70% but has only attempted 10 field goals. Neither kicking game has been particularly reliable going into Saturday's Governor's Cup...
- Both teams have the TOP advantage on the season, Louisville controlling the ball for 31:45 on average and Kentucky for 31:54...
- Louisville has 71 tackles for loss on the season, one more than Kentucky at 70. The Cardinals have allowed 51 tackles for loss, Kentucky had allowed 44. Those are similar numbers both ways for the teams...
- The Cardinals rushed for 384 yards against Duke in a 62-22 win against the Blue Devils last weekend. That was the most yards Louisville has ever rushed for in 35 games under Scott Satterfield. Louisville had 684 total yards in that game.
- Louisville is No. 5 in the country with 25 rushing plays of 20+ yards on the season. The Cardinals are No. 53 in passing plays of 20+ yards with 38.
Three Players to Watch ...
Malik Cunningham is an obvious choice here. He is 184/296 through the air this season for 2,589 yards, 15 touchdowns, and only five interceptions. Cunningham also has 933 rushing yards on 150 attempts (6.2 YPC) with another 18 touchdowns for 36 scores on in 11 games. Cunningham has been rushing all over opposing defenses. In the last five games he has totals of 133, 76, 134, 19, and 224 on the ground with eight rushing touchdowns. The game with 19 yards was a 41-3 win against Syracuse.
You could go with a number of other Louisville skill players, but receiver Tyler Harrell gets the most bang for his buck. With only 14 catches this year and never more than three in a game, Harrell still has 443 yards and averages a whopping 31.6 yards per reception. He has been a big play machine this year and must be accounted for.
Louisville's Yasir Abdullah has 13.5 tackles for loss on the season. That's more than twice as many stops behind the line of scrimmage as anybody else on the team has. He also has nine sacks. Abdullah had two sacks against FSU and another two against Syracuse.
Matchup Analysis ... Our typical Matchup Analysis section in included here ...
Quarterback - Slight advantage Louisville. Both players bring a lot to the table, but Cunningham has been less turnover prone than Levis. While Levis may be the better pure passing prospect, Cunningham probably gets the slight edge for the season as a whole.
Running Back - Advantage Kentucky. Even with the fumbling issue unresolved you have to go with C Rod over Jalen Mitchell, who has had a solid year at more than 600 yards but hasn't been the same kind of individual difference-maker.
Wide Receiver/Tight End - Even. Louisville has more depth at receiver, Kentucky's best duo between Wan'Dale and Ali. Both teams have had successful tight ends this year with Louisville's Marshon Ford at 41 catches for 462 yards and Kentucky's committee becoming more involved.
Offensive Line - Slight advantage Kentucky. Louisville's offensive line is very improved, powering a strong rushing attack with Cunningham and allowing only 17 sacks on the season. Kentucky has allowed 18 sacks and has paved the way for nearly 5.3 yards per carry this year. You can make a case these lines could be even based strictly on paper, but when they have met in recent years Kentucky's has had such an advantage that Louisville should have to prove it in this game.
Defensive Line - Slight advantage Kentucky. Louisville opponents are averaging 4.14 yards per carry. Tabarius Peterson and Ashton Gillotte both have three sacks. Kentucky's opponents are averaging 3.74 yards per carry.
Linebacker - Slight advantage Kentucky. Abdullah and CJ Avery have been playmakers for Louisville at linebacker. JJ Weaver leads Kentucky in sacks. The Wildcats have not forced enough turnovers but between Weaver's 10 TFL and DeAndre Square's 9 there has been a lot more havoc in the backfield for Kentucky this year.
Defensive Back - Even. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 67% of their passes for 2,423 yards, 18 touchdowns, and only five picks against Kentucky's secondary. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 258/403 passes for 2,792 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 10 INT against Louisville's secondary. Neither team has been very good by the numbers.
Special Teams - Even. Both teams have struggled in the kicking game. UK gets the punting edge. Both teams have created big plays either via returns or blocks. This could get interesting.
SEC Power Rankings ... One last regular season effort at an SEC power rankings that balances how teams are playing now with how they have played over the course of the whole season...
1. UGA - No-brainer until the Bulldogs lose.
2. Bama - I've become less confident that Alabama has much of a chance against Georgia in the SECCG. Don't rule them out, but this team hasn't showed the same kind of killer instinct as previous Bama teams, at least for much of the year.
3. Ole Miss - Rebels finish with 10 regular season wins for the first time in school history.
4. Texas A&M - Beating Alabama counts for a lot. The Aggies do have three losses to West teams but are 8-3 with that win against the Tide.
5. Arkansas - The Hogs only lost by seven at Alabama last week and the Razorbacks have wins against Mississippi State and Texas A&M.
6. Mississippi State - It's been a very up and down year for Mike Leach's team. They were capable of playing at an extremely high level for stretches of play but had bad moments this year too.
7. Tennessee - The level of explosiveness that Josh Heupel has created offensively is something to behold.
8. Auburn - With Bo Nix for most of the year the Tigers were an upper echelon SEC team. Just don't think they are playing quite at the level of Tennessee right now.
8. Kentucky - The Cats would have been much higher but the last month haven't been at quite the same level as most of the others ranked above them.
10. LSU - This has not been a good team but those below the Tigers here are very flawed in an even more significant way.
11. Missouri - The Tigers will be bowling but wins against South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Florida in the last month don't change the basic reality about its defense and what we saw earlier in the year.
12. South Carolina - Mizzou gets the edge on the basis of its 31-28 win against the Gamecocks.
13. Florida - The Gators are a train wreck and that's why they're looking for a new coach.
14. Vanderbilt - Clark Lea's got a tough job.
SEC games this weekend ... Other than Kentucky-Louisville there are some interesting games for the SEC this weekend.
Missouri at Arkansas - The Razorbacks would really have to play poorly to lose here. If they win, Sam Pittman's got an 8-4 top-25 team going into bowl season.
Ole Miss 31, Mississippi State 21 - That was on Thanksgiving night. MSU had four scoring opportunities in the first half and came away with six points. The OM defense tightened up when it counted. You can't miss that many opportunities against a team like Ole Miss.
Georgia at Georgia Tech - Tough to imagine the spread being 35 points here in Atlanta but the Yellow Jackets are a mess, fresh off a 55-0 loss to Notre Dame.
Florida State at Florida - Imagine being an underdog to the Gators right now.
Alabama at Auburn - This had the feel of a game that could be tricky for Alabama at one point, as a road Iron Bowl where the Tide has had its hand full before. Even with a less dominant Bama it doesn't feel that way anymore. Bama's a 3 TD favorite.
Vanderbilt at Tennessee - Vols will probably be blowing the Commodores out several minutes into the game and Heupel will have a 7-5 first regular season in Knoxville. That's ahead of schedule.
Texas A&M at LSU - The Tigers have been game in some recent weeks so the Aggies are only a 6.5-point favorite. Points may be tougher to come by.
Clemson at South Carolina - There have been a few commentators who seem bullish on the Gamecocks here but I don't see it. Too much talent disparity in Clemson's favor and the Tigers are playing better so win by a solid amount in Columbia.
What's at stake against the Cards? ... In short, this is a huge game in terms of where Kentucky is ultimately going to end up in the postseason. If the Wildcats win and finish 9-3 it's going to be hard to keep them out of a Florida bowl. Even if they don't have better wins than some of the SEC teams with worse records, their record will be substantially better than a number of other bowl-eligible SEC programs. UK would also be riding a three-game winning streak to end the season.
With a loss, it's easy to imagine a scenario where Kentucky ends up falling a bowl in a lower tier than the Outback, for example. Kentucky would have lost every game to a team decent or better since the Georgia game. The team would still have an eight-win regular season, only the second time UK has accomplished that since 1984 (an unbelievable stat). But we would probably not be talking about the Outback Bowl in that scenario.
Around the country ... Other action outside the SEC on the last full weekend of regular season games...
Boise State at SDSU - Aztecs can lock up an 11-1 regular season but the 7-4 road Broncos are actually a 3-point favorite.
Kansas State at Texas - Another weird line: The 4-7 Longhorns, cratering, are 3-point favorites at home against the 7-4 purple Wildcats.
Iowa at Nebraska - Yet another weird line with the 9-2 Hawkeyes a road underdog at 3-8 Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are better than their record but haven't been able to finish games.
Cincinnati at East Carolina - The Bearcats are 2 TD favorites on the road against 7-4 ECU. Undefeated regular season for the Bearcats and the last chance to rack up style points.
North Carolina at NC State - Dave Doeren can lock up a nine-win regular season and is a six-point favorite. UNC was supposed to be the better team this year but the Wolfpack is two games better at 8-3.
Facts about North Florida ... Kentucky takes on North Florida tonight at 7 p.m. in Rupp Arena with the Wildcats on a stretch of very nice play following the opening game loss to Duke.
- North Florida's leading scorer is Carter Hendricksen and he has ties to the state of Kentucky, hailing from Mt. Sterling. He attended Lexington Christian Academy and averages more than 13 points per game for the Ospreys. He's hitting 48% of his three-pointers this year. He was a first team All-ASUN pick last year.
- North Florida had 21 made three pointers and 30 assists in a win against Webber International last time out.
- North Florida has already played a highly-ranked team and lost to UCLA 98-63 earlier this season. The Bruins led that game 55-33 at the half. UCLA shot 50% for the game compared to 37% for North Florida. The Bruins also outrebounded North Florida 54-24.
- The Ospreys are one of the more prolific three-point shooting teams in the country with 62 makes from outside already this year.
- This is the first time Kentucky has ever played North Florida in basketball.
- UNF is 0-26 all-time against SEC basketball programs.
How Louisville starters ranked as recruits ...
