Ten early week thoughts on Kentucky football from Cats Illustrated publisher Justin Rowland.
Football Stock Report ... Trending up, trending down in UK football through the Cats' 31-17 loss to Mississippi State ...
Will Levis - Down. Kentucky's quarterback was 17/28 but for only 150 yards, one touchdown, and three picks against Mississippi State. He led a nice touchdown drive in the second half but the yards per attempt are plummeting and the deep ball has all but disappeared after a scoring start with the long ball at the beginning of the year. Levis played two good games in a row so let's see how he bounces back.
DeMarcus Harris - Up. Harris had two receptions for 30 yards including a touchdown catch in the second half. He had a couple of catches against Georgia as well. Harris could be stepping up as a third option after Wan'Dale and Ali.
Special Teams - Up. If you squint and look beyond the three blocked field goal/kick attempts this year then there has been some positive momentum with the special teams unit. The punting game has been okay, the coverage has usually been there, and Ali had the return for a touchdown.
New Years Six Hopes - Down. Kentucky still has a chance to reach the NY6 bowls at 10-2 so that will require beating Tennessee and Louisville. UK will probably be favored in every game the rest of the way but all bets are off after Saturday.
Defense - Down. Kentucky's defense got a lot of praise in the first part of this year. But Will Rogers was 36/39, the defense couldn't get off the field, and the Bulldogs even had some success rushing against UK with three touchdowns on the ground.
LINK: What UT's Josh Heupel Said on Monday
One flat performance or a trend? ... The biggest question facing Kentucky right now is whether what we just witnessed from UK in Starkville was one flat performance or a trend. Stoops has never been able to shake the flat performance, but the bottom has not fallen out in recent years.
Kentucky had the loss to UGA and then the flat performance against Tennessee in 2018, but bounced back to win a couple of games at the end of the year. In 2019, UK did lose to Tennessee 17-13 but it wasn't exactly a letdown performance and then the 'Cats finished very strong with several wins in a row. Last year was different because Kentucky had Florida and Alabama right there at the end of the year. You've got to judge that differently. In four of the last five years Kentucky has played well in the postseason.
I think it's fair to assume that it was a flat game and that we'll see a better effort this week. I'd be more concerned about the team being banged up and Tennessee having an extra week to rest and prepare than I would be about duplicating what we saw against MSU.
Needing to upgrade the corner position? ... Going into this season we weren't really talking about cornerback as an area of concern for Kentucky but over time it has surfaced as one. When an opposing quarterback sets the kind of record Rogers did it should prompt some soul searching. That followed Georgia pretty much having its way with Kentucky through the air. Opponents are completing two-thirds of their passes against UK on the season.
The 'Cats play a pretty conservative defensive strategy and we've heard that the whole time Stoops is at Kentucky. In some previous years the opposing QB play was not good enough to exploit that but Rogers certainly did.
Quandre Mosely got picked on by Mississippi State. Carrington Valentine and Cedrick Dort did not have their best games either. Then you're talking about a situation where the coaches just haven't felt good enough about anyone else to give them even an opportunity this year. There are other defensive backs covering receivers but in terms of the cornerback depth chart it's just got to improve.
Steve Clinkscale took a lot of pride in recruiting the defensive backs room and developing those guys but in the first year after he left we are seeing that the room has been in better shape.
LINK: How Tennessee and Kentucky Starters Ranked as HS Recruits
By the Numbers: UK-MSU ...
35 ... Rushing attempts by Mississippi State compared to 39 pass attempts. You will rarely ever see that kind of ratio from a Mike Leach team. While MSU only averaged 2.7 yards per carry that allowed the Bulldogs to hold the ball for around 40 minutes. Kentucky stayed off balance and every chance it got became more important than it should have been.
28 ... Mississippi State outrushed Kentucky by 28 yards, 94 to 66. That's tough to believe. Mississippi State is the definition of non-existent rushing attack and it has been Kentucky's identity for a very long time.
18 ... Tackles by UK's Jacquez Jones, but Statbroadcast.com only credited with three of those as solo. DeAndre Square had 12 tackles, as did freshman Trevin Wallace.
14 ... Mississippi State points off Kentucky turnovers.
13 ... Targets for Wan'Dale Robinson. He caught nine passes for 79 yards with a long of 21. That comes out to about six yards per target. You're basically getting the kind of production from Wan'Dale in the passing game that a solid running back would give you on the ground these past couple of games. The passing game has to evolve to become more than him.
10 ... Mississippi State penalties for 73 yards. Kentucky committed six for 68 yards. Mike Leach alleged that Kentucky was simulating the snap count, which Mark Stoops denied.
4.5 ... Yards per play for Kentucky. This number was very low against Georgia as well. Kentucky now ranks 45th in the country at 5.9 yards per play. That's still a solid number but it's dropping. That shouldn't be a huge surprise because Georgia and Mississippi State are two of the better defenses UK will see this season.
Breakout game for Trevin Wallace ... Wallace was named SEC Freshman of the Week for his performance against Mississippi State, notching 12 tackles. He got a lot of extra playing time, even more than usual, with Jordan Wright out and playing outside but also because of the number of plays Mississippi State ran.
When Wallace signed with Kentucky at one point I thought to myself that he would be a freshman All-American, a sophomore All-SEC player, and a junior All-American. That's how high I was on him. I have no clue if it will play out like that but he's got to be in the mix for Freshman All-SEC right now.
There's no denying his athleticism. Wallace has had some freshman growing pains at times but really seems to be rounding into form. He's going to be a ballplayer for the 'Cats over the next couple of years at least. Next year he hits the ground running with a full head of speed as a very experienced player.
One of the reasons I believe Kentucky's defense could be better next year than this year, in spite of losing so many seniors (potentially), is there are players like Wallace who will be primed to break out into something resembling stardom. JJ Weaver as well. Perhaps one or two of the young defensive linemen. Then maybe you get a couple of Super Seniors back.
LINK: Notes from Mark Stoops' Press Luncheon
Deeper dive into Will Levis' performance ... I've been as high on Kentucky's quarterback as anyone and have to acknowledge he just played a pretty brutal game in Starkville. It wasn't just a step back. It was a significant step back. Fortunately for UK and Levis, we've seen him play much better against an even better defense... recently. So there's no reason to believe those weren't just growing pains.
When you post a stat line like that none of the details are going to look good. Levis was 3/6 for 30 yards and two picks on play action throws. He was better throwing apart from play action, which is against the season long trend. Kentucky threw fewer screens against Mississippi State than it did against Georgia.
PFF still gives Levis an 84 overall grade for the season which is very good. Far above what Kentucky fans have seen recently. I do disagree with the 66 ranking for the MSU game, no question. (The reason I know that number is off is they didn't charge with any turnover worthy throws, but he threw three picks and they did tend to be his fault.) But don't turn your legitimate criticism into throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
Bowl projections ...
Jerry Palm of CBS Sports has Kentucky in the Fiesta Bowl against Notre Dame. Palm was slow to put Kentucky in the New Years Six and now he appears to be slow to take the 'Cats out. Notre Dame has only lost to Cincinnati this year and defeated the Tar Heels 44-34 in South Bend over the weekend.
ESPN has both Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach making predictions as usual. Both have Kentucky in the VRBO Citrus Bowl. Bonagura has Kentucky taking on Iowa while Schlabach projects the Cats will take on Minnesota.
On the Action Network, Brett McMurphy projects Kentucky will take on Michigan in the VRBO Citrus Bowl. He predicts that Michigan would be a 2.5-point favorite in that game.
While the Gator Bowl would probably be a disappointment based on where Kentucky could have ended up, CollegeFootballNews.com has the 'Cats there against Clemson.
Kentucky No. 17 in Coaches, No. 18 in AP ... All things considered the fall could have been worse. I don't really understand those saying Kentucky should be ranked lower. It seems like some folks are looking at "two game losing streak" as though it means something and forgetting that they actually didn't embarrass themselves or play really poorly in Athens two games ago. Granted, if we're just going by the UK-MSU game then the Cats wouldn't even be in the Top 60 let alone the top 25, but we're looking at a whole season now. It's fair to say that UK may have been a bit overrated but 6-2 (4-2 SEC) is worth a top-20 ranking most of the time in my mind. Lose to Tennessee and they probably deserve to fall to "others receiving votes".
Here are the rankings for the two polls, Coaches then AP...
1. UGA / UGA
2. Cincinnati / Cincinnati
3. Alabama / Alabama
4. Oklahoma / Oklahoma
5. Ohio State / Michigan State
6. Michigan State / Ohio State
7. Oregon / Oregon
8. Notre Dame / Notre Dame
9. Wake Forest / Michigan
10. Michigan / Wake Forest
11. Oklahoma State / Oklahoma State
12. Texas A&M / Auburn
13. Baylor / Texas A&M
14. Auburn / Baylor
15. Ole Miss / Ole Miss
16. Iowa / UTSA
17. Kentucky / BYU
18. UTSA / Kentucky
19. Houston / Iowa
20. BYU / Houston
21. Coastal Carolina / Coastal Carolina
22. NC State / Penn State
23. Penn State / SMU
24. SMU / Louisiana Lafayette
25. Pitt / Fresno State
I think in general pollsters have been very fair to Kentucky this year. Not too fair, but just right. Notice that two-loss Iowa is now ranked behind Kentucky, even though the Big Ten has a very strong reputation this season. But I think you have to tentatively put Kentucky in a category along with Iowa and Penn State as teams trending in the wrong direction if only for a short period of time.
I'll admit, I don't understand how you rank Cincinnati above Alabama right now. In no universe do I think the Bearcats would beat the Tide 5 or 6 out of 10 times on a neutral field. In other words, I think Alabama is just better. If you appeal to resume then they've still been more impressive, even with a loss. Cincinnati has struggled with Navy and Tulane in back to back weeks. I'd almost consider that on par with a loss to an average P5 team. You do have to judge them differently. The schedule strength is vastly inferior. Just winning should not be enough.
LINK: Buying or Selling Your Hot Takes on Kentucky Basketball
What Mississippi State fans have said ... From around the Mississippi State corner of the internet.
** I still feel like UK, even though we were at home, was toughest of our remaining opponents. Coaching, scheme, and talent level are solid. Much of SPS is shi--ing on the SEC East, but UK has built a really good football program. They're losses so far are to UGA and us. If they don't have a meltdown after their subpar performance against us, they are winning out.And their performance against us was subpar. You can understand why Stoops was so animated and angry. A lot of factors went in to that: Our offense frustrated them, our defense bamboozled 'em and the atmosphere at DW was fantastic. Still could have been better. Hopefully, we pack it for the Egg Bowl.
** UK isn't the best team. AU is a lot better. AR looks better or similar, OM is better.
** I had a sneaking suspicion it would play out like the NC State game because I think NC State and UK are basically the same with NC State having an edge at QB and UK having a slightly better defense.
** Sorry but KY is overrated. They've beaten 4-4 ULA Monroe, 4-4 Mizzou, squeaked by UT Chattanooga by only 5pnts, 4-4 USCe by 6, 4-4 Flarda by 7, 4-4 LSU. They got smoked by GA and us. I expect TN to beat them in Knoxville this weekend after having 2 weeks to prepare even though KY is favored -2.5.
** Don't go too far. They aren't overrated. And get the facts right, they play Tennessee in Lexington Saturday. I expect Kentucky to win.
** Then how did Kentucky beat Florida and LSU?
They had a down game against us, on the road. It's not that hard to fathom.
** I expect they will beat UT, probably by more than 7.
** Speaking of running, the gameplan we had on Saturday night needs to be the one we use on Thanksgiving night. The most balanced we have been to date during Leach's two years.
** Kentucky was fool's gold. They were 6-1 with one score victories over Missouri, South Carolina and Chattanooga. They also had a one score win over a 4-4 Florida that is 2-7 in their last 9 against Power 5 competition.
** 42% of the plays were called runs. Season average had been less than 20% called runs. It made a huge difference in the RZ. Loved it.
** What about squeaking by a bunch of 4-4 teams including the 4th 5th and 6th teams in the weak East by less than 7 points says they should be this high in the polls? They've been beaten soundly by the 2 teams they've played with a winning record unless you are also thinking UT Chattanooga should be highly rated too?
Their best, most solid win is over an LSU team the week Orgeron got fired. There's a reason lowly unranked Mississippi State was favored over Kentucky. Kentucky sucks. They'll lose to Tennessee this week and end up 9-3 and in a New Years day bowl and get trucked by Penn State.
** Kentucky fans... Find a fan base (other than OM) that dislikes Mississippi State and Starkville more than Kentucky fans. I browsed one of their message boards this morning. A lot of complaints about Starkville and cowbells. They truly loathe MSU. My questions is, if you don’t like it, why were you in Starkville last night? Feels so great to see State handle one of their better teams in school history.
** Exactly. Feels like they really come after state with everything they have. It’s strange. Makes the win that much better.
** Some of them were terrible. Ended up moving seats to get away from one in particular and watched that same ahole get kicked out of section 23 minutes before the end of the game for his trashiness.
That said we met and spoke to several UK fans yesterday who said they had enjoyed their visit to Starkville more than any other sec town they had visited.
** They come after us because they are very similar to us as far as pecking order in their division. When they play us they feel like they have a shot more often than not.
The only issue with that is SEC West >>> SEC East.
** They win a few games against a bad SEC East and all of a sudden they think their football team has transformed into their basketball team. People on the message boards were *shocked* they lost to us. The ESPN predictor had us winning this game.
** Same old Kentucky we've been seeing for the last 20 years. They'll have the occasional 3-4 win season and they caught a lot of breaks (and some usually good teams were down) that one year. But Kentucky is almost always a 7-5 +/- 1 game team that would be 5-7 if they played in the West.
What Tennessee fans are saying ...
** The Wade brothers... Wondering if the staff might have a shot at flipping them to UT if the Vols win Saturday? Both Rivals and ESPN have them both rated as four star prospects.
** UK is 12th in total offense in the SEC... 12th in scoring. 14th in passing. But all I hear about is how great their new OC and QB are.
** 12th is pretty bad when you consider how awful SC and Vandy are this year.
** Their defense only has 3 INT's all year. Dead last in the SEC.
** They have a solid defense so they haven't had to score a ton of points.
** It's going to be the SC game all over again.
** If you struggle to score you probably aren’t going to beat Josh Heupel.
That is just a truth that our program has now inherited with him running the show.
** We’re going to blow them out. Here’s why:
1. They have zero depth at DL. Running the football will not be a problem.
2. Chris Rodriguez is banged up and we will easily contain their running game.
3. Levis is only effective when the linebackers and safeties creep up on play-action. He will have no running game to speak of.
4. Levis is a pick machine when put in above situation. If we get extra possessions, we’re going to score.
5. It’s Kentucky and they’re our bitch.
** The key will be getting them off the field and not allowing them to chew up clock and slow the game down. We have to convert on 3rd down and prevent them from doing the same when they’re on offense.
** KY’s QB isn’t Matt Corral, so I am not as worried about the run game. Maybe 2 or 3 during the game, but not 20.
Turnovers did play a big part but KY is prone to turn the ball over and not create turnovers. Not a recent trend, this has been going on all season. They are 12th in total offense for a reason, they aren’t very good.
** Levis isn’t near the running threat Pitt / Ole Miss / Ala QB’s , but I watch a lot of games and have watched Levis run and he ain’t afraid.
** I like to ask myself, “How many points does team X need to win this game?”
For Kentucky Saturday, I think it’s 28. And I don’t think they can get there without help in the turnover/special teams department.
** Beware the Cats this weekend... First they have lost 2 in a row and they are honestly backed into a corner and will be dangerous this weekend. Stoops will have them fired up and ready to go. They have good line play and suspect in the secondary.
I think we will have to keep the gas on AND get off the field on 3rd down AND be good on 3rd down on offense and we can tire them out. We will have to play smart football. This is going to be a close game, but we need to beware...don't count out Stoops and his hate for Tennessee. This will be a dog fight.
** Load the box and stop the run
We just need to run our offense. Think we are a very bad matchup for them. UK is in trouble and their fans know it.
** Kentucky doesnt match well with us at all. Heupel is the best play caller we have had since Cut and it's not close. If he had his guys playing we would be sitting at 1 or 2 losses. If Banks can hold off Bama to a 1 score game in the 4th quarter, I'm not worried about Levi.
** Their strength is running up the middle. We defend that pretty dang well. I’m not going to be overly worried about a team that has failed to reach 300 yards three times this year & turns the ball over a bunch.
** Question will be how many Kentucky players get "injured" when Tennessee's offense is on the field?
** I have no idea the mindset of the KY players. After losing two, are they backed in the corner and ready for a fight or are they defeated. Who knows? Some act like it would be easier if they were 8-0 and playing well, compared to coming off 2 losses and “backed in the corner and dangerous”. Personally, I would be more worried about playing a good team than an okay one that could be mad.
** If I’m KY I am worried about a rested Tennessee team that is easily capable of scoring > 40 points. We present a bigger challenge to them than they do to us. IMO
** ** If we can score like we should, I just don't see how they can keep up. Even when their offense is running well they don't score but 25-30 a game.
SEC Power Rankings ...
1. Georgia - The Bulldog defense just gives you nothing. It allows their offense to have some off moments. They seemed to start slow against UF and just offer you no margin for error. If you blinked you missed several scores.
2. Alabama - Still a national championship contender but that game at Auburn is going to be a good one.
3a. Auburn - Bo Nix is playing some of the best football of his life right now. Auburn and A&M are the two most improved teams in the league from the start of the season.
3b. Texas A&M - Texas A&M has been a completely different team after losing at home to MSU. You'd expect them to blow out Mizzou and South Carolina but on the heels of a win against Alabama you have to think about them very differently.
5. Ole Miss - Matt Corral couldn't pull out the W on the Plains but Ole Miss will be a team that nobody wants to see in bowl season.
6. Kentucky - The Wildcats did not look like No. 6 over the weekend. Make that clear up front. You have to factor in resume and who they have been at other times. But that performance does drop UK out of one tier and close to another.
7a. Mississippi State - The results have been very up and down but this is a dangerous team because they can play some solid defense and the Air Raid is picking up.
7b. Arkansas - The Hogs are not what we imagined they might be at the beginning of the year but they're light years better than when Pittman took over before last year.
9a. Florida - Dan Mullen's seat is quickly getting warm. UF should win its last four but if it loses one of those games things could get interesting.
9b. Tennessee - The Vols lost to the Gators head to head but they just have more momentum right now. They have a good offense and they're playing hard.
11. LSU - Ed Orgeron's last month of regular season football in Baton Rouge includes games against Alabama, Arkansas, and Texas A&M.
12. Missouri - Some of the shine has worn off from Drinkwitz this year.
13. South Carolina - Shane Beamer has a big rebuild project ahead.
14. Vanderbilt - The Commodores have been competitive at times but you have to reserve this spot for them until they win a couple of league games. They're going on nearly a 20-game SEC losing streak.
