On the eve of one of the biggest Kentucky-Tennessee football games ever played, Cats Illustrated writers Jeff Drummond and Justin Rowland offer up their predictions and commentary in typical Take Two format.
What are the main reasons for optimism if you're a Kentucky fan on Saturday?
Jeff Drummond: I think this game looks a lot closer on paper than maybe the public perception has implied. Kentucky has several weapons of its own on the offensive side of the ball -- a top quarterback in Will Levis, perhaps the SEC's top running back in Chris Rodriguez, and deep group of receivers and tight ends that can challenge a shaky Tennessee defense that ranks 104th nationally. In most seasons when the Cats were facing an elite UT squad, they either had reason for hope on offense OR defense, but rarely both. This year, they will also have one of the nation's top defensive units directed by a coordinator, Brad White, who has had two weeks to come up with a plan for the explosive Vols. Lastly, while transitive scores don't always guarantee anything in sports, I think UK fans can find confidence in the fact that both Pitt and Florida -- two teams that aren't as talented as UK -- managed to play Tennessee to a one-score game. I also wonder if the public perception of UT right now isn't being bolstered by a win over Bama that may not be a vintage Nick Saban squad. There's no reason to believe the Cats can't be competitive in this one.
Justin Rowland: When Levis and C Rod have played together, and I've said this many times, Kentucky has looked like a top-15 team. We've only seen it twice this year. They should have won at Ole Miss and they handled Mississippi State. Kentucky has one of the best defenses in the SEC and on top of that, they present something different for the Vols with the slowest tempo in college football. Usually Tennessee is the team that's posing the tempo problem for the opposition. They will Saturday, but Kentucky will counter with something unique as well and that could put added pressure on a team that's used to having a lot more possessions to work with. To beat a really good team really good quarterback play is helpful, so having your best quarterback in a really long time is big here. This series hasn't gone Kentucky's way, not even close, but on the mental side it has to help that UK won the last time they played on that field. Finally, Tennessee is due for something less than their A game, which they've brought against LSU and Alabama recently.
What are the primary reasons for concern?
Drummond: The Vols are truly elite on offense. I'm not sure there's any way to "stop" Hendon Hooker & Co. Giving up 31 points -- which is a rarity under Brad White -- would probably be considered a winning effort against a unit averaging 51 on the season. The tempo is also a concern, although UK has done a decent job against teams that like to play fast this season. The Vols are a whole different animal in that regard, though, so it's going to take a team effort to combat it. Part of that responsibility falls on the other side of the ball, where the Cats have to hope that an offensive line which has been inconsistent this season has its best day of the year. Control of the ball and time of possession are essential to any winning recipe. Are they capable of executing that?
Rowland: You can do almost everything right defending Tennessee and they're still going to get their points. It has been the best offense in the country. That's a daunting challenge. On top of that, Hendon Hooker is a really outstanding college quarterback. When you go into the game just assuming your quarterback isn't going to turn it over and he'll create some big plays that's an excellent situation and that's what UT fans can count on every week with Hooker. Last year, even though Kentucky's defense is hellbent on taking away explosives, they couldn't take away Tennessee's explosives.
Of course, Kentucky has shot itself in the foot with mistakes all season long. When mistakes have followed you almost all season, you have to assume some of that will continue. There's not much margin for error against a top-3 opponent.
What's your prediction for the game?
Drummond: Tennessee 38, Kentucky 30 - It's hard to pick against the Vols at Neyland Stadium, which has been a house of horrors for the Cats over the years. Kentucky won in its last visit to Knoxville, but I think it would take a lot of things falling into place for that to occur again; too many to predict happening. So put this down in the "Prove it" column for me.
Rowland: Tennessee 38, Kentucky 28. When Vol Report asked me for a pick earlier in the week that's what I went with and I'll stick with it. Tennessee is having a really special season and is on its home field. We know from history that the Vols don't typically sleepwalk through this game so it's going to be a wild atmosphere. I think UK's offense can have one of its best games of the season and UK is one of the better teams Tennessee will play this year but I just can't pick the upset. I do think it will be a respectable showing though.
Who will be Kentucky's MVP?
Drummond: If Kentucky is able to win this game, we'll likely be able to point to multiple MVP candidates. I think two of the biggest will be the edge defenders, JJ Weaver and Jordan Wright. The Cats need pressure on Hendon Hooker in order to throw off the timing of the Vols' trademark deep strikes. They also need the outside backers to make some plays when they drop back into coverage. A forced turnover by both of them would go a long way toward producing the upset.
Rowland: Levis is going to put up some numbers. If UK is playing from behind he might put up huge numbers, as he did last year. I expect he'll come into this hyped quarterback battle with the right competitive mindset and will have a really good game.
