TAKE TWO: UK-NIU Predictions
As Kentucky has improved as a program there have been more and more instances of the CI pregame roundtable focusing on things beyond the outcome.
UK does have to hold serve at home, but as more than a three touchdown favorite against a 1-2 MAC opponent, it's natural we'd expect a lopsided game.
Here are takes from CI writers Jeff Drummond and Justin Rowland.
What are the reasons for Kentucky fans to be optimistic about this game?
Jeff Drummond: It seems like Kentucky has been "on edge" this week, both the players and the coaches, and we typically see the Cats play a little better when they're like this. NIU is a really solid club that could make this game competitive, but if we get the better version of UK and not the one that typically shows up for lower-profile games, the Cats should win comfortably. I think there's a big advantage with Will Levis and the UK receivers/tight ends against the NIU secondary.
Justin Rowland: As Jeff mentioned, I like the attitude of Kentucky coming into this game, at least based on what comes through in his interviews with the players and coaches after practice. While you'd normally think Ole Miss would be the circled game, Stoops really wasn't happy with a lot of the things he saw against Youngstown State and they want to "get right" before some crucial league games arrive. If Rocky Lombardi is out then it's extremely difficult to see even a longshot upset bid by the Huskies.
Kentucky's passing game seems to have a big opportunity against NIU, which hasn't tackled well in space and hasn't covered well.
What are the reasons for concern?
Drummond: You've got to be a little concerned when you're playing an opponent which was picked to win its conference. It doesn't matter what conference or what level, that's still a decent team capable of winning on a given day. Plus, we just saw NIU hold a 14-point lead against Vanderbilt, so that should get the Cats' full attention. If the NIU starting quarterback, Rocky Lombardi -- what a football name, right? -- is able to play, it will be a bigger challenge for Brad White's defense.
Rowland: If Lombardi plays that would at least be interesting. He could be a candidate for MAC Player of the Year after a fourth team showing last season. Of course NIU is a proud program with a history of playing some tough games against teams from the Power Five level. NIU needs a big turnover margin and the Huskies are +3 through three games while Kentucky is -1, so it won't be a surprise if that tips their way. The main thing is you wonder if there might be some lapses up front that could lead to serious issues but I think Kentucky would even be able to overcome that this weekend. The real reason for concern is what happened last week with J.J. Weaver. You don't want to see hold your breath moments.
What's your prediction for the game's outcome?
Drummond: Kentucky 34, NIU 10 -- I think the spread is just about right on the mark for this one. I expect another close game for a quarter or two before the Cats gradually pull away to win comfortably. Kentucky's defense is the difference. I can't see the Huskies threatening to post more than a score or two, especially if Lombardi doesn't play.
Rowland: Kentucky 45, NIU 13. My guess is Lombardi doesn't play and that's the reason for the score here. Either way, I think Kentucky covers. They seem locked in, know what they have to prove, and where NIU has struggled the most happen to be things I think the Cats can exploit pretty well.
Who will be Kentucky's MVP?
Drummond: Group award for the much maligned UK offensive line. I think things start to gel this week, and they pave the way for a big offensive day.
Rowland: Will Levis. I think he'll have a field day against the NIU defense. I wouldn't be surprised if he's one of the nation's top passers this week, and that's even with the run game still an emphasis going in.