Kentucky needs a win in a major way and there's an opportunity to notch a big one on Saturday night when Mississippi State shows up in Lexington.
Cats Illustrated writers Jeff Drummond and Justin Rowland share their takes on UK-MSU to help get you ready for the action.
What are the main reasons for optimism if you're a Kentucky fan?
Jeff Drummond: The return of Will Levis should be a major boost for the Cats this week. The other players around him still need to play much better than they did last week against South Carolina, but his skills and experience at quarterback are irreplaceable. I got the sense last week that the defense waved the white flag in the second half due, in part, to knowing they didn’t have the offensive firepower to win the game. We should get a much more characteristic version of Brad White’s D this week. Another area of optimism for UK is the Bulldogs’ lack of success in defending the run. Opponents are averaging close to 5 yards per carry, one of the worst figures in the SEC. We should see a heavy does of Chris Rodriguez.
Justin Rowland: If you want to make a case for a Kentucky win there's some stuff to sink your teeth into. Mississippi State is a really good team, but the last couple of weeks have perhaps given the impression they're better than they really are, facing opponents without their starting quarterback. MSU's skill players are good but it's not as good as they've been sometimes there. The Bulldogs lost on the road to LSU earlier this year and recent wins have been at home. Kentucky has fared well in night home games against MSU under Stoops recently. Will Levis is expected to be back and we haven't seen Kentucky's offense with both Levis and C Rod together at home. Mississippi State's run defense has not been great this year, so there's an opportunity for Kentucky's ground attack to control the game. Finally, UK desperately needs a win, and the program has found a way to win when it needs to get back on track in recent years. Don't count them out.
If you think about it, not long ago Kentucky was on the road against top-15 Ole Miss, marching down the field and close to completing a comeback victory.
What are the main reasons for concern?
Drummond: Mississippi State has been outstanding in Year 3 of Mike Leach’s “Air Raid” offense. The Bulldogs have a lot of weapons on that side of the ball and spread it around to 10 different skill players. There’s not really one guy you can focus on trying to take out of the game plan. Directing it all is veteran quarterback Will Rogers, who is about to pass Dak Prescott for the school’s career TD pass record. The Cats no doubt have memories of him torching them last season, completing an SEC-record 36 of 39 attempts for 344 yards in a 31-17 victory in Starkville. You also have UK’s ongoing protection issues going up against an aggressive MSU defense that forced four turnovers in last year’s matchup.
Rowland: There are a lot of things to say here. We don't know how healthy Levis is going to be, or how much they might have to scale things back to take care of him. Those health concerns may be amplified because of the protection issues we've seen this season. Will Rogers is red hot, you can't zero in on any of their receivers, and the Bulldogs lead the SEC in turnovers forced (12).
But the main thing is Kentucky has to avoid mistakes. Last week I felt like they needed to dig their heels in and just gut one out against the Gamecocks. Find a way to win it. They didn't, and this week it seems like they're going to just have to play much more clean football than they've played this year.
What's your prediction for the game?
Drummond: Kentucky 26, Mississippi State 24 - I’ve gone back and forth on this one all week, but I’m going to pick the Cats to bounce back after two really disappointing weeks of games that may have drastically changed their season’s ceiling. There’s a lot on the line here, and I expect to see perhaps UK’s most focused performance of the season. It’s only one game, but it feels bigger. At 5-2, the mood gets back to where it was three weeks ago.
Rowland: Mississippi State 31, Kentucky 26. I expect a valiant effort by the Cats, but think the matchup favors the Bulldogs. Homefield and the return of Levis give UK a jolt, but at the end of the day, is this team capable of avoiding the breakdowns in blocking and special teams to beat a hot top-20 opponent?
The good news for Kentucky fans is I've been wrong on my prediction for every SEC game UK has played so far!
Who will be Kentucky's MVP?
Drummond: Everything sets up for Chris Rodriguez to be a huge focus of UK’s offensive attack. Levis is coming off an injury. Mississippi State is not good against the run. The Bulldogs like to bring exotic blitzes and may open the door for some big plays for C-Rod in the passing game. I think he puts the Cats on his back in this one.
Rowland: Jordan Wright. Kentucky has to get off the field on defense. Turnovers didn't help last year, but MSU controlled the clock for 41 minutes. They're holding the ball for about 32 minutes per game this year. Wright is capable of making a game changing play or two, and he'll be important on the edge. He left the game late in the first half against MSU last year. He had a touchdown against MSU the last time this game took place in Lexington.
