Talking season is almost over. With just a couple more weeks of practice before the start of the 2022 college football season, players are about to fasten their chin straps and prove which pundits were right or wrong.
But there's still plenty of time for Cats Illustrated writers Jeff Drummond and Justin Rowland to share their takes on some over/under possibilities for Kentucky football this year.
We'll start on the offensive side of the ball.
WILL LEVIS PASSING TOUCHDOWNS: +/- 30
Levis tossed 24 touchdowns in his first full season as a starter at Kentucky last year after transferring from Penn State. Only four times have Kentucky quarterbacks reached the 30 TD threshold in a season: Andre Woodson (2006, 2007) and Tim Couch (1997, 1998) accomplished the feat. But many believe Levis can be a high draft pick.
Rowland: Under. But I think he'll go well over 30 if you count his rushing scores and the issue is total touchdowns. Only 14 college quarterbacks threw 30 touchdown passes last season. Three of those quarterbacks were from the SEC. When you factor the possibility of injuries, the strength of UK's ground game in the red zone, Will Levis' rushing ability, and the fact that the receiving unit has something to prove, I'll go just under.
Drummond: Under. I think I'll play it safe and say under, not becuase I don't think Levis is capable of throwing that many, but I think the UK running game is likely to claim a great deal of the TD shares this season. My hunch is that he comes in around 27.
WILL LEVIS INTERCEPTIONS: +/- 10
Rowland: Under. He would have been under 10 last year if we removed the picks that resulted from bobbles. That's not to say those were all good passes, but it's a part of the story that doesn't usually get told when national writers or pundits are telling it. Ball security is a big focus for Levis this season as he is in a contract year. He's going to turn it over some, but I don't see the flurry or turnovers that plagued him a couple of times last year. Levis showed last year that when he honed in on one facet of his game or needed to bounce back, he showed intentionality and focus in those things, and I expect improvement there.
Drummond: Under. This needs to be under if Levis is the type of NFL prospect that the staff has been touting going back to spring practice. Again, the potent UK ground game helps a lot here, and I'm confident that an improved all-around receiving corps and strong group of tight ends help keep Levis on the under or, at worst, right at 10.
PASS PLAY %: +/- 48%
Rowland: Under. Kentucky ran the ball 57% of the time last year and has not passed more than it has run in quite some time. So this is not a hot take. Having said that, with the possibility that C Rod could be out, the new tackles, and bringing a hot shot NFL prospect at QB into the season, it stands to reason that the throwing percentage will go up significantly. I'll still say under. I think this is going to be a pretty good team that wins a solid number of games, and there will be several weeks when they're running out the clock or protecting Levis in the second half.
Drummond: Under. In a big way. The man who Mark Stoops hired to take over the OC position this season -- Rich Scangarello -- coached the NFL team that had the fifth-most rushing attempts in the league last season. This scheme is designed to pound the rock. No matter how talented Levis is and now matter how improved the receivers are this season, I think Stoops will always prefer ball-control offense while picking his spots to attack through the air. You also have the lingering offensive tackles question that needs to be answered before we see the Cats flinging the ball at a 50/50 clip. You can still be balanced at 60/40.
CHRIS RODRIGUEZ RUSHING YARDS: +/- 1,134
Chris Rodriguez needs 1,134 yards to break Benny Snell's career rushing record at Kentucky. With questions surrounding his status, which Mark Stoops still won't or can't answer, this is the biggest question heading into the season for UK.
Rowland: Over. The thing that makes this difficult to answer is we simply don't know how much time, if any, C Rod will have to miss this year. If he's out a couple of games then he could still break the record averaging 110 yards per contest. I'm going to guess he goes over on the basis of a couple of monster games allowing him to rack up the yards, but I'm not too confident about that. Part of my calculation is that when players get within range of records, they and their coaches sometimes focus on getting over the top. C Rod rushed for 1,379 yards last season so if he doesn't miss any action that's an obvious over.
Drummond: Over. I considered a bit of a contrarian take here, but it's hard to see a guy who has been as productive as C-Rod during his career at UK failing to post 100 yards per game in this offensive scheme. I know they have a lot of talent in the running back room, and maybe the choose to split the workload a bit this season and keep C-Rod's legs fresh, but I still think he breaks the record if he stays healthy and doesn't miss more than two games due to suspension. The one thing that has me going back and forth on this in my mind is how much the staff has raved about transfer Ramon Jefferson.
TAYVION ROBINSON RECEIVING YARDS: +/- 800
Virginia Tech receiver transfer Tayvion Robinson had 44 receptions for 559 yards and five touchdowns for the Hokies last season. He was brought in to help Kentucky replace Wan'Dale Robinson and his incredible production from a year ago.
Rowland: Under. We haven't seen much of Robinson. I think he's a talent. I'm not expecting Wan'Dale's offensive production. I do think Robinson will be Kentucky's leading receiver. I just think with the way they are probably going to be throwing to the running backs and tight ends, I'm not sure he's a guy who pushes close to a 1,000 yard season. When I look through past game logs I would just guess he's a guy who is a little under that 800 mark.
Drummond: Over. I banked on Wan'Dale Robinson last season, and I'm going to do the same with Tayvion Robinson. He put up 559 on only 44 receptions last season at Virginia Tech. All indications out of spring football and fall camp are that he's going to be Levis's go-to guy. That's going to mean about 65-75 receptions, and that should produce 800-plus yards based on his career YPC average (13.8). That's above the mark Wan'Dale recorded in two years at Nebraska (10.0) and even last season at UK (12.8).
COMBINED RECEIVING YARDS FOR DANE KEY & BARION BROWN: +/- 450
Dane Key and Barion Brown were four-star signees from the 2022 class and have the opportunity to impact UK's fortunes immediately. The coaching staff has talked up Key's potential for months and Brown got some good work in the recent scrimmage.
Rowland: Over. Not by much, but I'll say these two get there, just barely. I think the receiving numbers will be fairly spread out after Robinson. Considering UK will air it out more, the way they've talked about Key, and the fact that they need someone explosive to open things up and Brown could provide that. These two have a very bright future and they start to make an impact immediately.
Drummond: Over. I'm all-in on these guys. They might not have huge numbers as freshmen, but I'd be shocked if they don't post about 300 apiece. The way they're talking about Brown as a deep threat in camp, he may get a big chunk of that with a handful of catches this season.
SACKS ALLOWED: +/- 28
Kentucky allowed 25 sacks in 13 games last year. That was right around the middle of the pack nationally but the Cats break in two starting tackles in 2022.
Rowland: Over. Kentucky's offensive line is probably more accomplished for its run blocking than its protection in recent years. All recent sack numbers resulted from an offense that didn't air it out as much as most other teams nationally. Given that we don't know how the new tackles will perform and there will be some tough speed and EDGE rushers on the slate as always, I have to go over a tad. I do think Scangarello will scheme up some solid protection with the tight end room they have.
Drummond: Under. Maybe a push. Or just by a hair. I know it may not seem logical to lose three guys as good as Luke Fortner, Darian Kinnard, and Dare Rosenthal and not have a drop-off here, but I have to say under here if I believe the things I've said previously in this feature. I think the Cats are going to run the ball effectively and do a lot of things schematically to keep Levis upright.