Take Two: Music City Bowl Predictions
It's almost time for the final Kentucky football game of the 2022 season.
For the last several days Cats Illustrated has been previewing Saturday's game between Kentucky and Iowa in Nashville.
Now it's time for one final round of takes and, at last, predictions on the game.
What are your thoughts on the matchup?
Jeff Drummond: In a warped kinda way, this is an intriguing bowl-game matchup. I saw one national analyst even suggest it's one of the better games on the slate. I'm assuming that's based on how close it could played. It won't be aesthetics, that's for sure, but it's an interesting matchup between two really good defenses and two offenses that will be led by unknowns at the quarterback position. I'd rather not have a rematch of last year's Citrus Bowl, but it is what it is. I'm assuming the Hawkeyes will be highly motivated in this one, so it's kind of a role reversal from the chip that the Cats usually bring into bowl games on their shoulders.
Justin Rowland: For the first several days of looking at this matchup the thought that kept running through my head was, "If no Levis and C Rod, how is Kentucky going to score against this defense?" The more I thought about the game, the more I realized that this was a totally valid thought, but Iowa fans have to be thinking the same thing. It's Iowa. That means bad offense. And they're on a third string quarterback. One has to believe that Kentucky is going to be able to stack the box enough to make sure both scores are very low. So I think it's pretty simple. Neither offense will have much success against either defense, and the game will probably be determined by who makes the fewest mistakes and who capitalizes on the mistakes of the other team. I do think Kentucky has more playmaking ability on the outside which could be a factor. There will probably be a significant revenge factor on the Hawkeyes' sideline.
What are your keys to a Kentucky win?
Drummond: This feels like a "do your job" type of game. Kentucky must play clean. Turnovers and penalties will probably determine win/loss in this one, as well as special teams, which is a prospect that might scare the daylights out of Big Blue Nation. I see a lot of field goal attempts, so hopefully the UK special teams have been putting a lot of work in on that since the end of the regular season. It also wouldn't hurt to spring a big return and either score or set up a score with a Barion Brown explosive play.
Rowland: Play clean in the special teams game and set your quarterback up to succeed, no matter who you roll with back there. I don't think Kentucky is going to have a lot of success running the ball in the traditional way against the Hawkeyes. The Hawkeyes are too good up front and Kentucky won't have C Rod, so whether it's jet sweeps, screens, or quarterback draws, "extensions of the running game" will be important. Punt to win, taking a page out of the Hawkeyes' playbook.
What's your prediction for the game?
Drummond: Kentucky 13, Iowa 9 -- I don't see either team scoring much in this one. Brad White's defense should hold a major advantage over the Hawkeyes' offense, and, likewise, the Iowa defense has been stingy against just about everyone they've played except CFP participants Michigan and Ohio State. Give me a UK touchdown via the return game and two Matt Ruffolo field goals to win it.
Rowland: Kentucky 12, Iowa 10. The Wildcats score two defensive touchdowns and miss both extra points, and the defense forces another late turnover to seal the win. This one could tip either way, but I'll err with Mark Stoops' recent record in bowl games.