The bye week is a good chance to look back but also to look forward a bit more than we usually do during the season.
We are five games into the regular season with seven games remaining.
Here's a look at how Kentucky's seven remaining opponents have fared to this point in the season, and whether each team's stock is up or down from where the expectations were in the offseason.
VANDERBILT: Stock Up
Given how Vanderbilt collapsed last season after building some momentum in 2022 it was hard to know what to expect especially with a lot of turnover in the program outside of Clark Lea. The NMSU OC/QB experiment has been a positive for the 'Dores, which are averaging 37 points per game through four. Diego Pavia has been an efficient and exciting player (63.5%, 721 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT, 279 yards rushing). He may well end the year as VU's leading passer and rusher.
At a place like Vandy you're always up against it and dealing with tight margins, so you have to believe Commodore fans are upset about narrow losses to Georgia State and Missouri after a 2-0 start. If Vandy had won even one of those two games it would have made a huge difference in terms of making a bowl game. One reason VU has been improved is on defense. They're giving up 3.7 yards per carry and three scores on the ground and that's a big upgrade from last season. They did show some vulnerability there against Mizzou.
Vanderbilt looks like a team that's capable of beating a lot of teams in the SEC but it's now hard to see their path to six wins. If Kentucky plays its C game, this could be a loss. Even if it plays its B game Vandy is probably good enough to play them competitively, so you will have to execute what you do rather than sleepwalk this year against VU.
FLORIDA: As Expected
Let's give Florida a chance to see what they can do against UCF at home. This is a Knights team that lost to Colorado on its home field as a favorite, so their result in the Swamp will be pretty telling for Billy Napier's team. Maybe Florida has developed some momentum with a lopsided win in Starkville and then some time off. But remember, this team's schedule is absolutely loaded with tough opponents so there's not much margin for error.
Florida is 2-2 with home losses to Miami (41-17) and Texas A&M, the latter a lopsided game at halftime. UF still has an incredible five games remaining against top-15 opponents. DJ Lagway has seen a lot of action behind center as has Graham Mertz. So you will have to prepare for both quarterbacks.
Florida is -4 in turnover margin through four games so that's something to monitor. The defense has been a problem. Opponents are averaging 27.3 points and finding the kind of offensive balance that you don't want to see. That has allowed opponents to hold the ball for almost 35 minutes per game on average.
AUBURN: Stock Down
Auburn is known for having a tough home field advantage but it hasn't been tough this year. The Tigers have home losses to Cal, Arkansas, and Oklahoma in recent weeks.
In terms of the overall numbers, Auburn looks like an improved team in some respects. They should have won two of those home games. The Tigers are averaging 7.64 yards per play and opponents are averaging 4.84 yards per play. That's a significant difference and tells you there's still a lot you will have to prepare for. The problem is, Auburn has fumbled a whopping 11 times and has lost six of those fumbles. It's a very different season if the Tigers stop dropping the ball.
Here's the reality for Auburn: The Tigers are 2-3 and over the next two weeks they go to Georgia and then Missouri, two top ten opponents. The Tigers may very well be 2-5 going into Lexington. That doesn't mean it will be an easy game or an obvious win, but you would have to wonder if the Tigers are consistent enough at simple execution to beat a stout defense on the road. Do they know how to win games?
TENNESSEE: Stock Up
Most people thought Tennessee was a College Football Playoff contender coming into the season and that is exactly what they are. Nico Iamaleava is now proven ready at the SEC level and while he doesn't have a Jalin Hyatt type target that will be an obvious mismatch against every opponent he's a mature player for his age and can manage the game, not just put up big numbers. But the defensive dominance has really been the story of the season for Tennessee. They were able to go on the road and beat Oklahoma in a defensive slugfest, not exactly the kind of game Josh Heupel has been known for in Knoxville.
Because Tennessee is a complete team and Kentucky hasn't played well there on the road, this looks like one of the two toughest remaining games on the schedule. However, the matchup could be a little better than it sometimes is because of the way this Tennessee team is built. On the other hand, Tennessee gets a bye before that home game at Kentucky and they get Mississippi State at home the next week, so it's not a game the Vols will be overlooking at all.
MURRAY STATE: As Expected
We knew before the season that Kentucky would be a huge favorite in this game and that's still going to be the case. The Racers dominated Mississippi Valley State but lost to Missouri 51-0 in Columbia and gave up 72 points to North Dakota. They did score 35 points in that game against a very strong FCS opponent but Kentucky's offense should have a field day.
TEXAS: As Expected
We thought Texas would be one of the sport's best teams and that's exactly what the Longhorns have been. Whether it has been Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning behind center, Texas has dominated the competition. Most games haven't been real tests but Texas did go dominate the defending national champs, Michigan, on its home field, serving notice that this team has the mettle to win tough games on the road just like last season when they won at Alabama.
Many believe Texas could be the best team in college football even with Alabama beating Georgia. We will see. Texas did have a little bit more trouble putting Mississippi State away than you might have expected.
The good news is that even dating back to their Big XII days, Texas has let some teams hang around in games when you didn't expect it to turn out to be so close. We'll see if that continues when the Horns get deep into an SEC schedule. We haven't seen them manage that yet.
LOUISVILLE: As Expected
Louisville has looked like one of the ACC's best teams and was competitive in a loss at Notre Dame. The two most interesting games for our purposes are the 31-24 loss to Notre Dame and the 31-19 win against Notre Dame. Those outcomes are about what you would have expected given the opponents and venues.
The Cards were only able to rush for 57 yards against GT and had 133 yards against the Irish. The ground game looked very strong the first couple of weeks so that will be something to monitor. Will the Cards be able to stay balanced against quality defenses?
The good news is the rush defense has been good. UofL has only surrendered about 90 rushing yards per game through four contests and that stout run defense has held up against the better opponents. Tyler Shough has not been a disappointment. In these last couple of games he has completed about 63% of his passes for 265 yards on average with five scores and one pick.
We know that Louisville wants badly to win this game, but it's in Lexington and it's Kentucky that has tended to play at a higher level head to head.