STATUS CHECK: How solid are UK's Class of 2018 commitments?
With commitments from Stanley Garner and Jamari Brown, Kentucky is inching closer to its finished product that the school can market as the next big thing on National Signing Day.
If, and here's a big if, they can keep all of these commitments on board.
The decommitment bug bit Kentucky earlier this year (Shocky Jacques-Louis, Cadarius Gaskin, Jarren Williams and Jermaine Eskridge if your memory allows). Is the class now solid? Even if the coaches won't breathe easy until faxes are sent in, is there any reason for concern?
Cats Illustrated pieces together the whole picture, taking into account:
1) What players have said on the record;
2) What players have said off the record;
3) What we've heard from sources close to UK, the player or others with a valuable perspective;
4) Circumstantial evidence, historical trends and gut instinct.
All that said, this is one take at CatsIllustrated.com and should not be taken as gospel, necessarily (although our track record here is pretty strong).
STATUS: Rock solid.
NEED TO KNOW: Jarren Williams, as you surely know by now, did decommit from Kentucky earlier this year after a wave of new offers from big SEC programs (plus Florida State and others) and after taking several visits. It looked like he would be taking some official visits with Florida, Florida State and LSU some of the leading challengers to ultimately win him over (and Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss and others trying their hand), but when Vince Marrow got involved and went down to Georgia, Williams jumped back on board, announced he was 100-percent solid and was shutting down his recruitment.
The fact that Williams continues to periodically retweet his recommitment message, which is a quite forceful statement that he's solid, is a great sign nothing has changed. When Cats Illustrated has checked in with him since that commitment he has never wavered. It's hard to imagine Williams decommitting for a second time and it seems like he's in love with the scho0l and the program in Lexington.
RELATED: Tyler Bentley's very different offseason after his UK commitment
STATUS: Soft verbal but likely to stick.
NEED TO KNOW: Why not pivot to another situation where there's been plenty of drama? The drumbeat preceding Peters' commitment to Kentucky reached a fever pitch around the time he was in Oregon for The Opening, and sure enough, as expected, Peters committed to Kentucky by posting his decision on Twitter. Kentucky had always been considered the frontrunner by all of Cats Illustrated's sources and everyone semi-familiar with recruiting who has paid attention. There's the Lakota West pipeline, the fact that Peters has become more familiar with UK than other schools, his connection with Vince Marrow, his teammate Tyler Bentley committing, UK's linebacker tradition and the list goes on. Mostly, everyone familiar with Peters just said he felt at home at UK, and never said he felt that way about another school.
But shortly after committing to Kentucky, Peters posted that he still needed to think some things over. He deleted his commitment tweet, although Cats Illustrated sources have said that he's still committed to Kentucky and continue to maintain he is very likely to stay on board through his signing. More recently, Peters has gone on record saying he wants to take some official visits to the likes of USC, Texas and Oregon before putting pen to paper.
Will those visits actually happen? Possibly, but that's not a given. And before anyone assumes those visit plans are a huge concern, remember, Peters pretty much had those options before his original commitment to Kentucky. The quick change of direction after his commitment was about making sure his mother would be on board with his decision. She's not anti-Kentucky, but making sure she's involved and feeling so is going to be key for Peters and Kentucky.
STATUS: Rock solid.
NEED TO KNOW: Bentley fell in love with Kentucky very early in the recruiting process and it seemed a foregone conclusion he would commit to the Cats. Then a new wave of interest and verbal offers came, and the offers were bigger, shinier and more jaw-dropping than most in the recruiting world expected, frankly. Alabama, Florida, LSU, Michigan State ... offers that make anyone pause.
Bentley did postpone his decision a couple of times but he settled on Kentucky in the end. For a recruitment that had quite a bit of drama before Bentley's commitment, there's been surprisingly little chatter (reputable or not) linking Bentley to any other schools. Lakota West has delivered for Kentucky before and it looks like the school will again, thanks to Marrow.
STATUS: Solid and currently no reason to believe he will flip.
NEED TO KNOW: History tells us that Florida kids are a little tougher to keep on board than those from Kentucky, Ohio and more local spots, because they can't visit Kentucky as often, they can visit other schools with greater ease, they're inundated with all the talk about big SEC programs during the whole season, and when half of the SEC can realistically expect to compete for championships in the next five years, well, your work's cut out for you with quality recruits, even if they're committed.
That said, there's no reason to believe Alexander is anything less than solid. He took a much-needed trip to Kentucky this summer and seemed to be having a fantastic time while he was there, so far as Cats Illustrated could tell. He didn't participate in camp but got plenty of attention from staff members, enjoyed the atmosphere and was energetic and upbeat watching his teammates and friends compete.
The one thing that gives some pause is Alexander's decision to participate in Tennessee's camp the day before he didn't camp at Kentucky. That gave the impression that he wanted an offer from the Volunteers. Whether he wanted it for bragging rights or personal validation, or whether he wanted it for other reasons, only Alexander knows. He also used to be trained by Kevin Beard, the receivers coach for the Vols.
It will be interesting to see if Alexander takes other official visits, beyond the one he'll take to Kentucky, but for now speculating that he's wavering to any degree would be nothing more than speculation and frankly pessimism. It wouldn't be a shock if any big receiver from Florida entertained options or took visits, because that just happens more down there, but Alexander's happy. He's also at Chaminade Madonna, and with every new commitment from the school it becomes more likely the Cats can keep all the previous ones.
STATUS: Solid and a flip would be surprising.
NEED TO KNOW: Hayes was committed to Louisville before he was committed to Kentucky. There will be those who look at that and question Hayes' loyalty, but to his credit, he has acted, spoken and tweeted in a way that would seem to silence any fears that he might grow discontent with the school he's pledged to again. In fact, Hayes has led the charge in reiterating, time and again, that he couldn't be happier or more solid. Like Williams and others, he routinely reminds fans and followers on social media that he's not only solid, but that he's shut down his recruitment.
Evidently, other schools continued to recruit Hayes even after his flip to Kentucky (if Kentucky didn't stop after he committed to Louisville, why would you expect others to stop now?). His message, which amounted to, "I'm 100-percent, thanks but no thanks to everyone trying to change that," would be tough to back out of and portrays Hayes as someone who regretted one decision before settling on the school he's comfortable with.
It's worth noting his flip to Kentucky wasn't impulsive or based on outside pressure. Cats Illustrated overheard a lot of other recruits talking with Hayes, and joking with him, about the likelihood of a flip to Kentucky when he was camping in Lexington. So it was evidently on his mind, and the minds of others, for quite some time.
STATUS: Rock solid and a flip is highly unlikely.
NEED TO KNOW: Alex Reigelsperger is the biggest, loudest, most colorful personality in Kentucky's recruiting class, and one of the most eccentric and intriguing characters to commit to the Wildcats in many years. He is raw, unfiltered and speaks (or tweets) with the kind of honesty that splits the reading audience between those that are uncomfortable and those who pump their fists and cheer him on. He will rip other college football programs and wear what seem to be his true feelings on his sleeve in a way that very few recruits do. There's not much caution or diplomacy going on, but even if Reigelsperger's approach to recruiting and the media rubs some of Kentucky's rivals the wrong way, it has undoubtedly endeared him to the fanbase and made him an early candidate to become a fan favorite.
It's almost easy to forget that Reigelsperger is a really good player. Everyone was reminded of that this week when multiple media reports indicated that Reigelsperger had made tentative plans to take official visits to Cincinnati, Minnesota and Rutgers.
Cats Illustrated spoke with sources close to the UK program and they didn't seem concerned. In fact, it seems like they're encouraging Reigelsperger to visit those schools, which is a sign of how solid they think he is but also a little swagger on display, perhaps illustrating they aren't concerned by those programs. Reigelsperger himself led Cats Illustrated to believe (without quoting him entirely, as it's not clear whether he wanted to be on the record verbatim) that Kentucky should have nothing to worry about. In fact, it's far from a given that those trips happen.
Minnesota is the one school Reigelsperger is most likely to visit. Why? His dad really likes new Gopher coach P.J. Fleck. But at the end of the day it would take one massive tweet-deleting clean-up effort to put a bow on a decommitment, because Reigelsperger has been as "all in" with Kentucky as any recruit in recent memory and it would be a shock, even in this 2017 world of decommitments everywhere, if Reigelsperger flipped.
The optics of Reigelsperger considering a trip to Cincinnati aren't great, especially since UK sources bristle at the suggestion that the Bearcats are any kind of recruiting rival in Ohio. But, again, they seem unconcerned.
RELATED: Derrick LeBlanc talks about the development of the defensive line (video)
STATUS: Solid and unlikely to flip based on present circumstances.
NEED TO KNOW: First things first. To understand any of this, you need to know that Hawkins is a bit of a beast. He looks like a third-year SEC defensive lineman who, at Kentucky's camp, absolutely towered over shorter, smaller players (and even some of them will play college football). All that's to say it wasn't a shock at all when Miami offered Hawkins following his camp in Coral Gables earlier this summer. Those who follow Hurricane recruiting were giving him positive reviews throughout the camp and so Mark Richt's staff made a widely expected decision when they did offer.
The silver lining at the time was that Hawkins showed up at "the U" wearing Kentucky headgear...probably hasn't happened too many times in the history of camps at Miami, but a sign of the times. Still, the Miami offer led to some real consternation among UK recruiting watchers, and understandably so. Why had Hawkins participated at Miami's camp if he wasn't serious about the Hurricanes? Add onto that the fact that Miami had the No. 1 class in the nation and enormous momentum under Richt and concern was understandable.
Then Hawkins posted a message to Twitter which said, to summarize, that he had been hearing talk that he was less than solid with Kentucky. Where Akeem Hayes had said he was 100-percent with the Cats, Hawkins upped him times five: "500%" solid, Hawkins said.
Now, does that mean if Florida, Florida State or other big name southern programs offer there will be no room for justifiable concern? Of course not. This is recruiting. This is 2017. Hawkins is coveted. We'll be watching his recruitment closely, but Hawkins seems all in with Kentucky and his message after Miami's offer was a strong statement and frankly a little surprising if you weigh historical precedent heavily. Beating out the Canes for C.J. Johnson when he was a four-star DT from a JUCO in New York is one thing. Getting a sought-after defensive line manchild from South Florida to shut it down right after camping at the U and landing an offer? That's next level stuff.
An additional note: House of Blue readers have seen this before, but Hawkins was right at home in Lexington. As he and other campers congregated at the entrance of Kroger Field before the start of a June camp, Hawkins was sitting perched on the ledge of a concession stand, saying very little. It made one wonder how he felt about Kentucky. Then, as soon as the other buses came in, Hawkins energetically stood up to go greet players from Blanche Ely, Deerfield Beach and other top talent-producing programs from his home region. He was aggressively recruiting, laying out the red carpet, and all of a sudden this behemoth looked like a guy who just might buck trends and stick with UK (a la Jordan Wright last year).
RELATED: What advanced stats tell us about Kentucky football going into 2017
STATUS: Solid for now.
NEED TO KNOW: Let's preface this by pointing out that McCall's commitment, if you follow recruiting and recruiting media such as Cats Illustrated every day, was probably the biggest surprise of the recruiting cycle for Kentucky. Maybe not the biggest surprise for Steven Clinkscale or those in the UK football offices, but in terms of how quickly his announcement came together and how Kentucky seemed to, out of the blue, land this (then) Rivals100 two-way lineman from Michigan, well, it was a bombshell announcement. It's still hard to believe that Kentucky could land a top-two player in Michigan, although McCall did say that he hadn't heard from the Wolverines in quite some time. Still, he didn't wait for the next biggest Big Ten programs and he happily committed to a future at Kentucky when almost no one saw it coming.
Since then McCall hasn't done anything that would call his commitment into question. He visited Kentucky not once but twice this summer, first to observe the offensive and defensive linemen working at a day camp and later, in July, to participate in the Cats' Friday Night Lights camp. On that first trip he seemed subdued and a little quiet, leaving something to the imagination, but on the second trip, flanked by good friend and 2020 UK target Justin Rogers, his personality came out, he seemed very much at ease, and looked like a guy who was thrilled to be there.
What happens if, one day, Michigan swoops in and says, "You're our top guy"? Or what if Ohio State, Penn State or another school does? Easy to speculate, impossible to know for sure. But right now McCall has said he's solid and deserves the benefit of the doubt on that from anyone who doesn't buy it. His trainer told Cats Illustrated, when McCall committed, that UK will have to keep recruiting him but he expected him to sign with the Cats. He also spoke about a big pro-UK movement on the ground in Michigan with recruits.
STATUS: Rock solid and highly unlikely to flip.
NEED TO KNOW: DeAndre Square's commitment wasn't nearly as surprising as McCall's because he was frequently linked to Kentucky in the weeks and months preceding his commitment. However, for many of those weeks and months it seemed like Michigan State was a co-favorite, and we later learned that Wisconsin was a really strong contender. It wasn't a given, for most of the process, that Square would pick the Cats. But once he visited (not once, but twice it seems), he was sold and all the momentum shifted to Kentucky's direction.
Square has since made it abundantly clear on social media and in subsequent conversations with Cats Illustrated that there is no school he would rather commit four or five years of his life to, and it's hard to imagine him flipping. He seems like a quieter guy who only advertises what he wants out there, but when Cats Illustrated saw him in Lexington, even as a quiet kid, he seemed like he was fully comfortable and at ease. He treats football as happy work and has a business-like approach to work, and that meshed well with Matt House and UK's coaches at camp.
He likes UK's tradition of linebackers that have gone on to NFL success and Kentucky has done a really good job of expanding UK's map from Ohio over to Michigan with top 15 players like Square there. It would be a surprise if he so much as took an official visit to any other school.
DISCUSS: Kentucky's class now ranked No. 14 nationally at Rivals.com
STATUS: Rock solid for now.
NEED TO KNOW: Months ago, before Kinnard committed to Kentucky, a source told Cats Illustrated, "When it's said and done, everybody's going to offer this guy." Well, not everyone has offered ... yet. And based on what we saw from camp in Lexington this summer, a lot more schools should offer him. Kinnard is undoubtedly one of the steals of the class for Kentucky and, in our estimation, has the makings of a potentially big-time SEC offensive tackle. He's massive and getting bigger, carries his weight exceptionally well, and appears to project as a plus-level road grader and pass set guy. All that's to say it wouldn't be a shock at all if Kinnard picks up some big offers before he gets the opportunity to sign with Kentucky, and that's always a variable.
All that said, Kinnard has been very solid with Kentucky to date and he has never been a guy who takes a lot of visits. It took him a while to visit Kentucky, and while that made it tough to recruit him at times, it seems, that's probably a positive for Kentucky now, making it less likely that he visits other schools, especially as the season makes his life busier. The UK staff is surely pointing to their line's success last year, John Schlarman's soaring reputation for development and the opportunity to be part of the 'next wave' of talent in the trenches that carries on the success of last year's (and possibly this year's) group.
STATUS: Rock solid for now.
NEED TO KNOW: Here's the really good news: It seems like Upshaw has bonded with some future teammates at Kentucky. He was cutting up and looking very much at ease with fellow UK commit Quintin Wilson at one camp when he just visited. During the camp where he participated (in a limited way...hamstring issue) he spent the rest of his time that night fitting right in with Jarren Williams and several other future Cats. Upshaw, seemingly as much as anyone in the class, seems to fit right in when he gets on the ground in Lexington. For that reason it's tough to imagine a flip.
When Upshaw was still uncommitted it seemed like Kentucky was the most likely landing spot but there was some uncertainty initially, and sources said he was listening to what coaches from Auburn had to say. What if Auburn were to mount a renewed push, or another school? That's unlikely given the Tigers' talent pool in the South. And there was never any indication that any of the Midwest schools (or Louisville, another school that offered) was serious competition to Kentucky.
UK's coaches successfully sold Upshaw on being a hybrid complement to Brendan Bates or whatever other more conventional tight end that will be on the field. And if UK can utilize C.J. Conrad in the pass game as much as many believe they will in 2017, that would only make it an easier sell to keep him on board.
DISCUSS: Who will be Kentucky's next commitment from the Class of 2018?
STATUS: Solid based on present circumstances.
NEED TO KNOW: Garner's situation is interesting and this is a story that must be told for an accurate picture to come to light. While he picked up a lot of verbal offers from heavy-hitters through the spring and summer, not all of those turned into written offers. But don't assume that means he's overrated. Not at all (Jim Harbaugh offered, as did Louisville, Ole Miss and others...written offers). That said, Garner did visit Alabama twice this summer and Cats Illustrated came away with the impression that if the Tide went all-in with Garner as "a guy" for them, they would be tough to beat. While Alabama had a hat on the table as a finalist, what would happen if Nick Saban picked up the phone and said, "Son, I want you here this weekend on an official"? That might seem like an unfair hypothetical because almost no one would say no to that, but it's fair in this case because there was a serious flirtation between Garner and the Tide staff. He was in a similar boat with Clemson, it seemed, although Alabama, Kentucky and Louisville were his finalists.
For now Garner is solid and there's no use in really speculating on what might happen. But it would be foolish to write off the possibility that there could be a fight ahead, much as there was late for Jordan Griffin a couple of classes ago when Auburn mounted a push. The really good news is he's said no to Jim Harbaugh to say yes to Mark Stoops, and that's a major recruiting achievement for the Cats. It bodes well, too.
RELATED: Secondary notes with Griffin's role, Johnson's transition and Robinson's progress all highlighted
STATUS: Solid based on present circumstances.
NEED TO KNOW: Yeah, Brown and Garner are both long, athletic, sought-after cornerbacks from Florida very much in the mold of Chris Westry and Derrick Baity. And, yeah, that's a compelling, legitimate narrative that should be repeated. But the similarities don't stop there. There's no reason to doubt the strength of either player's commitment, but there are ample reasons to watch these situations going forward.
Why? Because if they have a big season, and show the kind of skill and physical prowess many believe they have and are refining, others will come calling. Brown's final three consisted of Kentucky, Auburn and Temple. Odd grouping of schools aside (especially considering Pitt had given Brown a written offer), Auburn could still loom as a potential foe in the battle to keep Brown on board. His cousin, Junior Rosegreen, starred at Auburn so the connections to the Plains are real. Sources say Auburn didn't do itself any favors long-term, if they eventually push hard for Brown, by verbally offered in late July and holding off on the written offer just days later when they became allowed. Meanwhile, Kentucky's written offer seemed to contrast with that favorably and probably earned the Cats some loyalty.
Still, if more written offers come Brown's way it will be interesting to see if he takes other official visits. And that's not being down on Kentucky. It's a testament to the kind of player they're recruiting. Gone are the days of locking down the types who don't have 'blow up' potential. And have we mentioned Florida recruiting is an unpredictable shark tank?
RELATED: Measuring the impact of Jamari Brown's commitment to Kentucky
STATUS: Rock solid.
NEED TO KNOW: It's tough to talk about Rodriguez on some levels because he has stayed clear of requests for interviews and hasn't put much anything out there on the record, so we're relying heavily on what others have said (sources, his coach, etc). What we do know is that Rodriguez had other offers but he jumped on Kentucky's just shortly after a visit. And that's a good sign. Helping Kentucky's cause is Benny Snell's huge freshman year and the likelihood that he'll watch the Cats rack up some big rushing numbers this fall. Kentucky can sell running back playing time even if the depth chart isn't open because they only have four scholarship backs and probably (it's still possible they do) won't take another 2018 back. So the circumstances are favorable for a hold.
What really bodes well is what Rodriguez's coach at Ola told Cats Illustrated. He's not impressed by the bells and whistles, big stadiums or tens of thousands of people at spring games (although Kentucky has had some of that, and does have nicer bells and whistles now). Rather, he's impressed by sincerity from a coaching staff, and he buys what UK's coaches are telling him. Don't expect to hear a lot from Rodriguez, but he may well be the kind of guy who just packs it in, keeps to himself and never wavers. That's the best guess here.
RELATED: Breaking down the commitments of Garner and Brown (KSTV video)
STATUS: Rock solid and a flip is highly unlikely.
NEED TO KNOW: It's easy to forget this because Bates committed so early and never really tried to build much suspense or throw any misdirection, but he's a huge commitment for Kentucky because of the turnover at the tight end position in the coming years, and he was right at the top of Marrow's wish list. Somewhat in the mold of C.J. Conrad as a blocker-pass catcher combo, Bates probably doesn't need to see anything new from the Cats. He has remained steady and other visits don't seem likely at all. That's impressive because for all of Kentucky's success recruiting Ohio, going into Archbishop Moeller High School and plucking a four-star is a big deal and that school wasn't previously a pipeline for UK.
RELATED: What we're hearing about Alex Reigelsperger and those reported visits
STATUS: Rock solid and a flip is extremely unlikely.
NEED TO KNOW: Wilson seems right up there with Upshaw, Williams and others in terms of looking right at home when he visits Kentucky. He gels with John Schlarman, he chops it up with Vince Marrow, his at-ease persona connects easily with fellow commits and he's visited more than we expected him to. Steven Clinkscale did a great job recruiting Wilson in a team effort with Marrow and others, strengthening UK's foothold in Cincinnati.
Throughout the uncommitted portion of Wilson's recruitment there wasn't a lot of information out there that suggested he was on the cusp of a commitment to Kentucky. He had a variety of Power Five offers to sort through, and some of them really quality options, and there wasn't a heavy drumbeat suggesting an imminent Yahtzee as there was in the case of Reigelsperger, earlier with Bentley or with Peters. But since Wilson's commitment he has done more to convince us he's solid (post-commitment, here) that flipping him from Kentucky would be an extremely difficult task.
RELATED: Round Table discussion on the impact of Cole Mosier's injury and absence
STATUS: Rock solid and highly unlikely to flip.
NEED TO KNOW: Poore was one of several kickers that Kentucky's coaches seemed to have their sights set on and when they went all in and made him the top commitment target they were able to close the deal relatively quickly. From the time the Cats offered it seemed like there was a strong possibility that Poore would fill the void that will be created when Austin MacGinnis departs after this season. There's absolutely no reason to believe Poore is going to flip, although anything's always possible, and the fact that Kentucky's coaches can tell him he can start as a freshman in the SEC is a huge selling point that has to be attractive. If Clemson or South Carolina were to mount a frantic push we'd have to dig a little and do some research, but Poore and his family seem thrilled with the future he's got in Lexington.
CONCLUSION
Right now it seems like Kentucky's class is largely very solid, and more solid than a lot of the other top 25 classes out there. That's impressive considering the lack of an in-state presence. While there were decommitments early, getting Jarren Williams back on board has been a shot in the arm, and on the strength of some very solid locals from Ohio, the class has grown closer. Another big factor has been the improving reputation of Kentucky in Michigan and, certainly, the expansion of the Cats' profile in South Florida.
If you're the pessimistic type then you'll be asking the following questions:
- What other offers will Davoan Hawkins land and how will he respond when those come?
- Has Brown put Auburn completely out of his mind? And are Alabama, Clemson and others done with Garner?
- What if Reigelsperger does visit Minnesota and loves it? And what if Peters goes through with those officials all over the country and has second thoughts?
But right now there's not one player that we can say looks like a future decommitment. That's not to say decommitments won't happen. Shocky Jacques-Louis has clearly proven to be enamored with Tennessee, but at one point he was one of Kentucky's most enthusiastic commitments. Strange things have happened, and when you're recruiting top 25 caliber classes a whole new set of challenges emerge. But the staff is recruiting the right kinds of players and right now they're set up well to not only finish strong but keep what they've got.
The biggest variable remaining: The 2017 season. Just as Kentucky's stronger than expected finish to the 2016 season catapulted the Cats up the leaderboards for a host of Florida players who might have otherwise landed elsewhere last year, a great season could make everyone rock solid; or, conversely, a worse than expected season could bring uncertainty.
But those possibilities always exist.