STAFF PREDICTIONS: UK-South Carolina
Kentucky is a slight underdog going into this weekend's game, so the 'Cats will need to upset the Vegas odds in order to avoid a third consecutive loss to start conference play.
Here's what the Cats Illustrated staff thinks about this weekend's game.
What are the main reasons for Kentucky fans to be optimistic going into this game?
Jeff Drummond: Despite the two-game losing skid, I think Kentucky fans can go into this game reasonably optimistic because they know how close they are to being 4-0 right now. You only need one hand to count the plays that could have made the difference the last two weeks. The mood around BBN is a little sour right now, but it could just as easily be ecstatic. I'm not sure how much UK's five-game winning streak over the Gamecocks matters to this particular matchup, but for whatever reason, the Cats seem to have South Carolina's number under Stoops.
Tyler Graf: Sawyer Smith should have more decision-making time this week, as the South Carolina pass rush has been very pedestrian this season. The Gamecocks have only tallied eight sacks on the year. They also give up an average of 435 yards per game. Outside of inflated stats against Charleston Southern, their numbers have been average on both sides of the ball. The last two weeks, South Carolina has given up 81 points combined to Alabama and Missouri. Ryan Hilinski is the least-mobile quarterback the ‘Cats have played up until this point. The Kentucky coaches have voiced their aggravation about the pass rush, so I expect Brad White to disk up some exotic blitzes in order to get to the true freshman quarterback in a must-win game for the Gamecocks. Kentucky also faces a South Carolina team that is putrid on third down conversion percentage, something the ‘Cats have struggled with all season.
Justin Rowland: The Gamecocks are hurting. This is a team that just got throttled by Missouri and they're 1-3 on the season. They don't have a whole lot of obvious strengths right now and so when you look at the matchups there's nothing that should keep Kentucky's coaches up at night. UK has played well in this series and in this stadium of late.
What are the main reasons to be concerned?
Drummond: The big concern with this one is obvious: the Cats are going on the road to play in a really tough environment. Five years of losing to Kentucky does not sit well with South Carolina. The Gamecocks' faithful will be foaming at the mouth to get the W in this one. If you subscribe to the old sports "due theory," South Carolina is certainly due for a victory in this series. Additionally, if you look at the way the Gamecocks moved the ball against Alabama (passing for more than 300 yards and rushing for more than 100) you have to be a little concerned about whether a rebuilding UK defense can hold up.
Graf: South Carolina absolutely has to win this game or they risk the wheels completely falling off. The team, the staff and the fans will absolutely be fired up. Kentucky’s pass defense has struggled all season and they will face their toughest wide receiver matchup to date in Bryan Edwards. Kentucky’s run game will be key in this matchup, but the Gamecocks have only given up 3.7 YPC so far this season. On their side of the ball, South Carolina averages 6.3 YPC. I think South Carolina keeps the Kentucky defense on their heels and mixes up the play calling. If given time, Hilinksi is skilled enough to carve up any defense.
Rowland: There is really nothing about this South Carolina team that should strike fear into anyone. The issue for Kentucky is ... Kentucky. Is this team prepared to put together four quarters of sound execution? The problems have been failing to score in the red zone, allowing too many third down conversions, and penalties over the past couple of weeks. In other words, they aren't playing opportunistic football. That has to change even against an average at best team in South Carolina.
Who will be Kentucky's MVP on Saturday?
Drummond: If Kentucky finds a way to win this game, I think Sawyer Smith will be the catalyst. A quarterback is always an easy/obvious choice for this category, but this is a big bounce-back game for Smith, who did not play well in last week's loss to Mississippi State. The South Carolina defense is decent against the run, struggles against the pass, so there will be opportunities to make things happen in the passing game.
Graf: Brandin Echols. The biggest mismatch for the ‘Cats is against Bryan Edwards. Echols will probably draw that assignment more times than not. He’s shown flashes of being an elite defensive back in every game, but he’ll need his most complete game to date.
Rowland: Lynn Bowden. He's Kentucky's best offensive player and South Carolina's secondary has struggled. Get him the ball and Bowden will rack up a bunch of yards.
What's your prediction for the game's outcome?
Drummond: South Carolina 26, Kentucky 23. This game could go either way. It feels like perhaps the biggest toss-up of the season, but I'm going to stick with my preseason prediction. I think the Gamecocks will be hungry to end the losing skid to the Cats and eke out a close one. Mark Stoops will be faced with his biggest coaching challenge to date in keeping the players and fan base focused on the big picture after an 0-3 start to SEC play.
Graf: Kentucky 27, South Carolina 21. This game will come down to red zone execution, as both teams have struggled mightily in that regard this season. I think Kentucky goes back to playing smash mouth, run it down your throat football and it pays off. Sawyer Smith makes a few big plays, but only attempts 20-25 passes in this contest.
Rowland: South Carolina 27, Kentucky 23. I picked Kentucky against Florida and Mississippi State, and after watching the last five quarters of football I'm just going to wait and let the 'Cats prove it to me. This game could go either way. Homefield advantage could be big in this one.