Staff Predictions: UK-Mississippi State

Jeff Drummond: Kentucky has to be encouraged by last week's offensive performance against a Tennessee defense that causes as much havoc as any unit in the league. The protection was outstanding, Devin Leary had his best game of the season, and the receivers all looked like the playmakers we thought they would be heading into the season. If they can pair that with Ray Davis' typical rushing output, you've got a really difficult team to defend. Mississippi State enters the game ranked ninth or worse in SEC rushing defense, passing defense, and scoring defense, so the Cats should be able to put up a winning total.

Travis Graf: Last week, Kentucky’s offense figured things out. They give up around 240 yards through the air on average and around 375 total yards per game. In all honesty, Mississippi State is a below average football team that Kentucky should beat pretty comfortably on paper if they play a solid game. The spread is moving in Kentucky’s favor in Vegas.

Justin Rowland: They're nearly a touchdown favorite and that's for a reason. Mississippi State has not been a good team this year. They've been a team with an identity that is constantly in flux, and that means they don't have an identity. Devin Leary has been playing his best football of the season the last two games and the receivers came on against Tennessee. This seems like an opportunity for Kentucky's defense to get its footing.

What are the main reasons for Kentucky fans to be concerned?

Drummond: The last time the Cats won a game in Starkville, Rich Brooks was the head coach, Randall Cobb was making his first start as a quarterback, and the game-winning touchdown pass was thrown to Maurice Grinter. So, yeah, it's been a bit. The home team has held serve in the last eight games. Mark Stoops is 0-5 in Cowbell Hell, and only once (2013, ironically) did he manage to keep it within one score. Now he has to try to do it with a defense that has allowed 122 points in its last three games.

Graf: Mark Stoops has never won an SEC West road game during his tenure at Kentucky. The Bulldogs get after the quarterback decently well and that’s been an issue for Kentucky all season up until last week. Mike Wright is a dual threat that gave Kentucky fits a season ago.

Rowland: This isn't a team without a pulse. Mississippi State won on the road at Arkansas recently. So we aren't talking about a team like Vanderbilt. This team is more on par with South Carolina and it's on the road so it's certainly not one that can be called "easy". The Bulldogs have two quarterbacks that Kentucky will have to prepare for. Will Rogers and Mike Wright are very different players. Then of course there's the fact that Kentucky has lost 15 road games in a row to SEC West teams. If you're skittish and taking a "believe it when I see it" position that's understandable.

What's your prediction for the game's outcome and who will be Kentucky's MVP?

Drummond: Kentucky 30, Mississippi State 20 - I spent all week considering a pick in favor of the Bulldogs, but that was based on the past and not objectively looking at this matchup. After diving into the stats and seeing that Vegas has the Cats approaching TD-favorite status, I had to reverse course. UK simply should win this game. Give me Devin Leary as MVP with another big passing day.

Graf: Kentucky 27, Mississippi State 14. Mark Stoops gets a monkey off of his back with an SEC West away victory on the back of two touchdowns from Leary to Key and a rushing touchdown for Davis.

Rowland: Kentucky 23, Mississippi State 20. There's no reason to believe it will be anything other than a close game and at the end of the day I think Kentucky's defense has a much better game. The Cats build a little bit of a lead and then lean on the run game.