Before every Kentucky football game the Cats Illustrated staff shares predictions and takes about the Wildcats' next matchup.
Here's what Justin Rowland, Jeff Drummond, and Travis Graf are thinking about the UK-Vanderbilt game in Nashville this weekend.
What are the main reasons to be optimistic about this game if you're a Kentucky fan?
Justin Rowland: Kentucky is a better football team than Vanderbilt. That alone isn't saying much because if Arkansas weren't so awful we'd be talking about how historically bad Vanderbilt is. The Commodores have been terrible on offense and defense for much of this season. There's no reason to believe Kentucky won't be able to run all over the 'Dores. The fact that the spread is 10-points in Kentucky's favor is obviously a good sign.
Jeff Drummond: On paper, this is a good matchup for the Cats. Vanderbilt doesn't light up the scoreboard, although it does have some nice individual parts like Ke'Shawn Vaughn and Kalija Lipscomb. The UK defense has been playing well for several weeks now, and should be able to limit the points damage that the Commodores do. On the flip side, Kentucky is still struggling to get anything going in the passing game, but it may not be crucial going up against a Vandy defense that is surrendering almost 466 yards and 35 points per game. The Cats should be able to generate enough offense to win this one comfortably.
Travis Graf: Vanderbilt has put up little to no resistance on the defensive side of the ball all season long. The Commodores give up 35 points per game and nearly 200 yards of rushing. Kentucky doesn’t have to face a dynamic quarterback this week, either. Vanderbilt quarterbacks have combined for 7 touchdowns and 9 interceptions on the season. The Commodores also struggle with third down conversions, only converting 28% on the season. Kentucky’s defense should have no problem getting off the field.
What are the primary reasons for concern?
Rowland: Kentucky has not played well on the road this year. They were shut out 21-0 against Georgia in its best road showing of the season, lost by two touchdowns to Mississippi State, and were bested by 17 points by South Carolina. UK has yet to show they're capable of playing well for four quarters on the road (the good news is, they probably don't need to play well for four quarters to beat this particular opponent). UK remains one-dimensional. Against Tennessee, the secondary showed cracks for the first time in several weeks. Also, against a similarly bad Arkansas team earlier this year Kentucky only won by three points and that was at home.
Drummond: Kentucky-Vanderbilt games, especially those in Nashville, have usually been more competitive than anyone expects on the Big Blue side of the equation. The Commodores circle this game as a W when they look at their schedule every summer, and they will likely give one of their best efforts of the season. Vaughn is a big play waiting to happen on any snap. Anyone who watched the Dores play LSU should be concerned about his ability to make things happen. And, lastly, will the Cats be able to recover from their bitter loss to Tennessee and show up ready to play their best in this one?
Graf: Ke’Shawn Vaughn is one of the SEC’s best running backs. You cannot let him get in a rhythm and gain big chunks of yardage at a time. I’m not going to overthink this one. The only way I see Kentucky losing this game is if Vanderbilt dominates time of possession and wins the turnover battle by 2 or more.
Who will be Kentucky's most valuable player?
Rowland: Lynn Bowden, and he'll probably be my pick in every remaining Kentucky game. The Paul Hornung Award finalist will touch the ball anywhere between 60-80 times, will probably log 20 or more carries, and will account for whatever passing yards the Wildcats produce. For the rest of this season, Kentucky goes as Bowden goes.
Drummond: This game will likely come down to Kentucky's front seven against the Vanderbilt ground game. If the Cats win, the linebackers will loom large. Give me Kash Daniel as MVP in his best performance of the season to close out his final SEC game.
Graf: Lynn Bowden. Like I said above, one of the only ways Kentucky loses this game is if they lose the turnover battle by a significant margin. The only other time Vanderbilt has played a true running quarterback (Ole Miss) this season, they gave up over 400 yards on the ground. If Bowden takes care of the ball and takes care of business on the ground, Kentucky should be in great shape.
What's your prediction for the game's outcome?
Rowland: Kentucky 27, Vanderbilt 17. Sticking with the 10-point spread as things currently sit in Vegas, this seems about right. The game is on the road and it's never a small thing to win away from home in a conference game. Ke'Shawn Vaughn will get his yards but the Wildcats wear the Commodores down and rush for 300 yards.
Drummond: Kentucky 24, Vanderbilt 13. This feels like a low-scoring, aesthetically challenged slugfest to me. The Dores keep it close for most of the game, but the Cats pull away late by controlling the line of scrimmage and riding their strong ground game to victory.
Graf: Kentucky 24, Vanderbilt 7. Vanderbilt just doesn’t have the offensive firepower to put up big numbers against Kentucky’s defense. I think the Cats jump out to a lead early and coast to the finish. Bowden eclipses 250 all purpose yards and accounts for 2 touchdowns.
