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Published Nov 8, 2019
Staff Predictions: Kentucky-Tennessee
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Justin Rowland  •  CatsIllustrated
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The traditional Battle of the Barrel rivalry between Kentucky and Tennessee renews on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. in Lexington, with both the Wildcats and Volunteers holding some late-season momentum and hopes of improving their postseason forecasts.

Here's how the Cats Illustrated staff sees the game playing out.

What are the main reasons for optimism for Kentucky fans?

Jeff Drummond: Kentucky is a confident team right now. The Cats have rediscovered their identity since being forced to make a move to Lynn Bowden at quarterback, and it's had a positive effect on the whole team. The offensive line is thriving, the Cats are controlling the line of scrimmage and time of possession, and the defense (a big beneficiary of that previous point) is getting better on a weekly basis. I think the way UK played last season in Knoxville -- arguably the worst performance of the last two years -- has left a bad taste in everyone's mouths over at the Joe Craft Football Training Center. They're eager to wash that out.

Travis Graf: Kentucky comes into this game ranked eighth in the country in defense versus explosive passing plays. That’s the only area I see the Volunteers trying to attack Kentucky consistently if they want to win. Tennessee’s quarterbacks have accounted for 10 interceptions this season, and will likely give Kentucky’s defensive backs the chance to make plays. Tennessee’s run offense has been very pedestrian this season. Tennessee’s defense is at it’s best whenever their defensive line and linebackers are able to pin their ears back and rush a pocket passer in a pro-style offense. They will not be able to do that against Lynn Bowden.

Justin Rowland: One of the reasons for some of UT's success this year, whatever they've had, is explosive plays in the punt return/block game. That is not a weakness for Kentucky with Max Duffy out there. UT is not a good offensive team and UK's defense shouldn't give up many points in this game if they turn in a standard effort. The 'Cats should be riding a wave of momentum and have added motivation with the way last year's game went.

What are the biggest causes for concern?

Drummond: Tennessee is also playing its best football of the season. I viewed this game as a gimmie for the Cats back in August and September, but the Vols definitely deserve respect for not allowing a horrible start to torpedo their entire season. They'll be hungry to win this game, and let's face it, that historical dominance of the rivalry still kind of lingers in the back of everybody's mind when UK and UT step on the field. Wide receiver Jauan Jennings is a huge challenge for the Cats' secondary and could tip the scales toward the Vols if he makes explosive plays in the passing game.

Graf: Tennessee has been able to find their groove the last few weeks after a very disappointing start to their season. They have a lot of positive momentum riding into this game. The Volunteers seem to always have the Wildcats’ number, even during Kentucky’s best seasons. Kentucky’s defensive backs will face one of their toughest matchups of the season in wide receiver Jauan Jennings, a future NFL playmaker.

Rowland: Tennessee plays with a lot of confidence against Kentucky and understandably so given the history of this series. Kentucky sometimes plays with ... less. There's that mental hurdle that we're always going to talk about until more outcomes start going UK's way. Beyond that, UK remains one-dimensional offensively and the Volunteers are capable of slowing or shutting down opposing offenses.

Who will be the Wildcats' MVP?

Drummond: Boogie Watson. In order to win this one, Kentucky has to get pressure on Tennessee quarterback(s) and make them uncomfortable in the pocket. Watson comes up with a couple of big sacks, forces a turnover, and the UK defense leads the way to victory.

Graf: I’ll go with Kentucky’s secondary here. As I said, Tennessee will give them opportunities to make plays. If the defensive backs can capitalize on a couple of big plays and neutralize Jennings, the ‘Cats will be in great shape.

Rowland: Lynn Bowden. The Volunteers can stop the run pretty well, but slowing down a unique option like Bowden is very different than stopping a traditional rushing attack. Bowden is a pretty obvious choice for me, because as long as he is the likely quarterback there aren't many other offensive options.

What's your prediction for the game's outcome?

Drummond: Kentucky 20, Tennessee 17 - There haven't been too many times in the history of this border rivalry that the Cats have held the upper hand in the trenches. I think this will be one of those rare occasions as UK wins a hard-fought game.

Graf: Kentucky 21, Tennessee 17. Kentucky’s able to control the time of possession, while Lynn Bowden passes for a touchdown and runs for another. AJ Rose joins him in the scoring column. The win makes Kentucky a virtual lock for a bowl game, with 8-4 still in sight.

Rowland: Kentucky 21, Tennessee 20. This appears to be a pretty even matchup on paper. Tennessee probably has a talent advantage on the whole, but Kentucky has more of an identity and home field advantage.

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