Cats Illustrated staff members make predictions before Saturday's renewal of the Governor's Cup rivalry between Kentucky and Louisville.
What are the main reasons for Kentucky fans to be optimistic about this game?
Jeff Drummond: Kentucky should enter this game optimistic due to the offense/defense matchups in both directions. On paper, the Wildcats should be able to control the line of scrimmage and pound the weak Louisville defense (No. 102 total, No. 105 scoring) with a strong running game. Barring a rash of penalties or poor ball security, there isn't much that stands in the way of a big offensive day for the Cats. On the flip side, the Cardinals have been explosive in their first year under Scott Satterfield, but exactly how many points would UofL need in this one to compensate for how bad its defense is? I would suggest at least 28, and that's probably on the low end. Spanning two seasons, the UK defense hasn't been giving up that kind of scoring total.
Travis Graf: Kentucky's players have to be licking their chops while looking at Louisville’s defensive numbers. Kentucky’s rushing offense has been an absolute juggernaut ever since Lynn Bowden took over behind center and Louisville’s rush defense ranks 88th nationally. On the offensive side of the ball, Louisville’s offensive scheme is predicated on converting explosive chunk plays. Kentucky is one of the best in the country at preventing explosive plays. The biggest advantage for Kentucky is in the trenches and they’ll control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
Justin Rowland: Homefield advantage, it's going to be a big game for Lynn Bowden and I suspect he has a big day, and the 'Cats are better on both lines. It appears the weather is going to be ugly and that would help Kentucky a lot.
Why should UK fans be concerned?
Drummond: As I mentioned earlier, the Louisville offense is legitimate. The Cards are a big play waiting to happen on every snap, especially Tutu Atwell. If Kentucky's tackling is not sound, the Cats could give up some uncharacteristic big plays for scores, and that could breathe life into UofL's upset bid. The worst-case scenario for UK would be a couple of those plays occurring early in the game, forcing the Cats to play catch-up without a legit passing attack. Another concern is UK's placekicking game, which has cost it points several weeks in a row.
Graf: Louisville is the best offensive team that the ‘Cats have faced this season. While their numbers are skewed a bit by going up against terrible ACC defenses, the Cards do have elite speed on the outside and a running back that can do a lot of damage as well. Kentucky’s defense has struggled with contain against dual-threat quarterbacks at times this season and Micale Cunningham probably has the highest top-end speed out of any signal caller Kentucky has faced.
Rowland: I don't have much to add here. My overall feeling is that if Kentucky does not tackle in space then it could be a long day. If it's a close game, there's still the place kicking issue that UK can't feel good about. One of UofL's biggest weaknesses, coverage, is something that UK will not be able to exploit.
Who will be the Wildcats' MVP on Saturday?
Drummond: A.J. Rose. I think the Cards will load up on Lynn Bowden and put most of their focus into slowing him down, which should open up some opportunities for UK's other backs to have a big day. I see a 100-yard game coming for Rose.
Graf: The linebacking corps. They’re going to have their work cut out for them this week, as Louisville will look to stretch the field. The key to the game on defense will be gap integrity and assignment discipline. If Louisville is going to defeat the ‘Cats, they’ll have to establish a run game. As I said earlier, I expect the defensive line to dominate, so the linebackers will have to make plays behind them.
Rowland: Bowden. I wouldn't be surprised if UK's quarterback rushes for 200 yards against the Cardinals based on what I've seen from these teams.
What's your prediction for the game's outcome?
Drummond: Kentucky 30,Louisville 20. Back in the summer, I would have scoffed at making a prediction that only favored the Cats by 10. Things change. UK lost Terry Wilson and UofL made much quicker progress under Satterfield than even the most optimistic Card fan would have predicted. That makes this one an intriguing finale. I think UofL will play with emotion and hang around for at least a half, but the Cats will methodically churn out rushing yards and time of possession to pull away for a comfortable win. The Governor's Cup stays in Lexington.
Graf: Kentucky 28, Louisville 21. The ‘Cats sustain long drives and limit Louisville’s offensive possessions. Lynn Bowden has his best game as a passer and accounts for 300 total yards. As long as Kentucky doesn’t commit costly turnovers, I don’t see Louisville winning this game against what is probably the second most talented defense they’ve faced.
Rowland: Kentucky 28, Louisville 27. This should be a close game but I have to go with the team that's more physical at the point of attack.
