Staff Predictions: Kentucky-Florida
It's that time again. Kentucky fans always get up for the Florida game and it has real meaning for both teams.
Here are game takes and predictions from CI writers before one of the biggest games of the year.
What are the main reasons for Kentucky fans to be optimistic about this game?
Travis Graf: Kentucky has the talent advantage in this matchup for the first time in a long while. The Gators have played one good quarter of football all season long and that was the 2nd quarter against Tennessee. Florida’s defense is also their least frightening in quite some time, only coming up with one takeaway so far on the season. Graham Mertz has been accurate, but most of his throws have been short, which plays into Kentucky’s bend but don’t break defense. Lastly, Florida is putrid on third down.
Jeff Drummond: Both of these defenses are formidable on the defensive side of the ball, but I think Kentucky has greater potential for a big scoring day against the Gators than vice versa. The explosive plays have been a nice boost for the Cats this season, while Florida has leaned more on long, sustained drives. The latter makes it much more difficult to score against a Brad White defense. The Gators have had some issues finishing drives, settling for too many field goals, so I think that could be the difference in this one.
Justin Rowland: We can make a pretty good list of reasons for Kentucky fans to be optimistic going into this game. Let's start with Kentucky. The Wildcats play well against Florida. I've always been of the mind that college football teams tend to circle one game on the calendar each year, and for Kentucky, it's really two games under Stoops - Florida and Louisville. At least for the past several seasons, Kentucky gives a better than usual effort against those teams. That speaks to a mentality and one that tends to be replicated.
Kentucky has a very good defense. I think it will be the best unit on the field when these teams meet. The script against Florida in recent years - save when they had to face Trask and Pitts on the road during COVID - is that UK's defense matches up well in this game. I still think they do given Florida's proven inability to push the ball down the field.
Kentucky has more playmaking ability on both sides of the ball than Florida and it's been a while since we've said that going into a game. I've never said it going into a game.
When it comes to Florida, we're talking about a team that has done well to get to 3-1, but it hasn't always been pretty. Graham Mertz has to prove he can go on the road and win a game like this. Billy Napier has to prove he's got this program ready to go on the road and win a game like this.
What are the main reasons for Kentucky fans to be concerned?
Travis Graf: Graham Mertz has been super accurate this season, and Kentucky’s edge rushers have to get home against him and not give him time, something I’m not very confident in. Combine this with Kentucky’s frequent use of soft coverage and it could be a day of Mertz just dinking and dunking all across the field for Florida. Kentucky doesn’t really have an advantage on paper against Florida’s poor third down conversion rate, as Kentucky’s third down defense has been poor as well.
Jeff Drummond: Florida’s ability to control the game with its rushing attack reminds one a little bit of the Kentucky teams that leaned heavily on Benny Snell and Chris Rodriguez. If the Gators keep the chains moving and wear down the UK defense, the Cats cannot afford a game where the offense shoots itself in the foot and loses the time of possession column. We also have the lingering question of whether the Cats can run the ball consistently against a defense like this. UK can’t afford to be in 2nd-and-9, 3rd-and-8-type situations all day long. Converting those against non-conference foes and Vandy is different than converting them against Florida.
Justin Rowland: There are also reasons for concern. Kentucky has been fairly dominant against weaker competition, but they haven't faced a team as good as Florida. They haven't faced a team with anywhere near as much talent as Florida will put on the field pretty much across the board. Therefore, we have to admit that we don't know a heck of a lot about Kentucky so far. Has the level of competition they have faced prepared them for a game against a Florida team that has already played at Utah and against Tennessee?
Mertz is completing 78% of his passes, and while Kentucky's defense seems to be able to do more than just "keep it in front" this year, they have to prove they can stop Florida's running game and short passing game.
How will Kentucky's offensive line fare in this game? Are the young receivers going to step up to the challenge?
What's your prediction for the game and who will be Kentucky's MVP?
Travis Graf: Kentucky 28, Florida 17. This is the game where Kentucky takes the training wheels off and unleashes the passing game. Devin Leary passes for 275 and three scores after the Cats jump out to an early first quarter lead. There’s also a big special teams or defensive play that really gives Kentucky momentum at some point.
Jeff Drummond: Kentucky 19, Florida 16. I’m borrowing from that Monday Night Football matchup between the Bengals and Rams and picking a low-scoring slugfest. New UK kicker Alex Raynor is the hero with four field goals.
David Sisk: Florida has had a decent body of work so far with a split against Utah and Tennessee. The win against the Vols saved the Gators season, but there was a blueprint they may not be able to match on the road. Florida jumped on the visitor early and took a 26-7 lead into the half. They took away the run and forced Joe Milton to beat them. That recipe won’t work against Devin Leary. Kentucky’s offense sets up a whole new list of challenges. Florida may also have to come up with answers on the other side of the ball. Their bread and butter has been on the ground. They average 165 yards rushing per game which is fourth in the SEC. Although Kentucky has not played a strong schedule yet, they have the top rushing defense in the league. I believe Kentucky takes a first half lead and dares Graham Mertz to make game winning plays with his arm. Combine that with a big home field advantage (Billy Napier is 1-5 away from Gainesville) and the Cats will find their way to a fifth win in as many games. Kentucky 27 Florida 17
Justin Rowland: Kentucky 20, Florida 16. I'll say the Gators have to settle for three field goals, a theme that started this past week against Charlotte. I just can't pick against Kentucky's defense in this matchup. The starters are playing at a very high level. My MVP pick is Trevin Wallace, the man who returned the blocked field goal for a touchdown.