Staff predictions for UK-Florida

We're one day away from Kentucky-Florida and as always the Cats Illustrated staff is breaking down the game in our roundtable format.

What must Kentucky do to pull an upset in Gainesville?

Jeff Drummond, Managing Editor: The single biggest factor in determining whether UK can be competitive at The Swamp is taking care of the football. The Cats were minus-4 last week and fortunate that they were playing a Central Michigan squad that was not fully able to take advantage of it. I'm thinking UK must be at least plus-2 in this one. On the surface, a whole lot of ball control and Benny Snell seems to be the right recipe going into the matchup.

Warren Taylor, Staff Writer: To avoid their 32nd defeat in a row to Florida, the Cats need to prevent an early avalanche by the Gators and not fall behind early, something Kentucky has historically struggled to do in Gainesville. If Mark Stoops' team can find a way to stay within striking distance during the 1st and 2nd quarters, I like this veteran group's chances. They need to stay confident and play clean football to avoid the deep craters previous UK teams have dug; otherwise, the wheels might come off fast and furious yet again at the Swamp.

Justin Rowland, Publisher: They have to weather the storm early. There can't be a first quarter blocked punt, a pick six or a fumble that punts the backs of the defensive players against the wall. If Kentucky can survive a crazy atmosphere and lots of Gator energy enough to let the nerves settle down and to see the game establish some flow, they can start to exert their will and control the terms the game is played on. If this becomes a ball possession game and something a little ugly, I like their chances a lot more. They also must pressure Feleipe Franks, and I believe they can.

What are the biggest reasons Kentucky fans should be concerned?

Jeff Drummond, Managing Editor: I think Dan Mullen's track record against Mark Stoops is among the biggest. Schematically, this seems to be one of those bad matchups for the UK defense. Florida quarterback Feleipe Franks wasn't much of a threat in the old Gator system but he looks more formidable under Mullen, who has taken a lot of guys who weren't great passers and made them look better than perhaps the talent level actually was with his RPOs. Franks threw five TD passes in the first half alone last weekend. This will be a stern test to find out if the UK defense has improved as much as we think it has.

Warren Taylor, Staff Writer: Kentucky is prone to slow starts under Mark Stoops, and last Saturday's dud of a first half against Central Michigan showed the 2018 Wildcats have yet to kick the habit. Florida flashed big-play potential against Charleston Southern, which is troubling. A fast start by Florida will send the Swamp into a frenzy and the Cats into a tailspin.

Justin Rowland, Publisher: I just see much more big play potential for Florida in this game than for Kentucky. They have a lot of impressive skill talent on offense and Kentucky had trouble taking care of the football last week. I've said it before, but I actually believe Kentucky matches up pretty well overall personnel-wise with the Gators, it's just the convergence of circumstances (night SEC opener in the Swamp, Franks playing well, Wilson with something to prove, Gators blocked two kicks last week) that makes it easier for me to see Florida breaking the game open with one or two plays.

Who will Kentucky's MVP be on Saturday night?

Jeff Drummond, Managing Editor: At the risk of drawing a Steve Spurrier joke, I'm going with an off-the-wall pick here and choosing punter Max Duffy. Field position will be crucial in this one. I really liked what we saw from Duffy last week against Central Michigan. He has the ability to keep the field flipped when the offense stalls.

Warren Taylor, Staff Writer: Josh Allen. Getting pressure on Franks and disrupting his timing is vital. Luckily the Cats have one of the best pass rushers in the SEC. If Allen can lay the wood on Franks just a handful of times, it will make a world of difference.

Justin Rowland, Publisher: Sihiem King. I might be getting a little cute and going outside the box as well, but there's a reason for that. King had a great game against this Gator defense last year (5 carries, 64 yards, and a reception for 24 yards), and I don't think Florida is great in coverage over the middle of the field. At least they weren't last year. Kentucky also has to hit on some big plays in this game and because of King's quickness, either on third downs, on the couple of series he gets in the backfield, or on returns, he'll get opportunities.

What's your prediction on the score and outcome?

Jeff Drummond, Managing Editor: Florida 30, Kentucky 16. I made a vow years ago to never pick the Cats in this game again until they proved they could win one against the Gators. Big Blue Nation expects to compete or maybe even end the streak, but Vegas seems to know something about this one with a two-touchdown spread. Sorry, BBN, it's not gonna happen in The Swamp.

Warren Taylor, Staff Writer: Florida 31, Kentucky 27. Kentucky showed tremendous resilience last Saturday by overcoming four first-half turnovers to down Central Michigan. I don't see this team folding easily again on Saturday, but the combination of a hostile environment and enough questions marks in the passing game will ensure that the Streak will live to see another day.

Justin Rowland, Publisher: Florida 31, Kentucky 20. My gut tells me Florida is going to jump out to some early success because of the atmosphere and the struggles of the Cats' passing game last week. UK matches up well, but Florida creates turnovers or big momentum changing plays and stays in control.