Staff predictions for Kentucky-South Carolina
The Cats Illustrated staff discusses Kentucky-South Carolina and makes predictions on the game.
What do you think Kentucky's advantages are on paper in this game?
Derek Terry, Staff Writer: Kentucky's offense should be able to put up some points on South Carolina. Stephen Johnson is going to start, and unless he's injured, he's going to play the whole game. We'll know more after this game, but Johnson strikes me as a player who will only get better as time goes on. He was shaky at first against New Mexico State, but once he got settled in he made some really nice throws and moved the offense efficiently.
Josh Ellis, Staff Writer: The Kentucky offense as a whole has a slight advantage over the South Carolina defense in my mind. With Stephen Johnson in the mix I think UK has even more of an edge. The read-option has seemed to give the Gamecocks fits thus far and I think it's something Eddie Gran will try to exploit on Saturday.
T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: It's easy to envision UK's offense having success against South Carolina. Expect South Carolina to stack the box, forcing Stephen Johnson to throw. Kentucky's wide receivers will have an advantage, so we will see if Johnson can make the same throws he made against New Mexico State. But the offense should be able to move the ball and score, and they're going to have to knowing how poorly the defense has played this season.
Justin Rowland, Publisher: Kentucky's offense should be able to move the ball at times and maybe consistently against the Gamecocks (although the consistency will have to be demonstrated). After stifling Vanderbilt, South Carolina has given up a good amount of yards to Mississippi State and East Carolina. Kentucky's receivers should have the matchup advantage against a Gamecock defensive backfield that lacks depth. The Cats should also be able to find some success on the ground. Vanderbilt rushed for 169 yards and Mississippi State rushed for 290 yards against this defense, so Boom Williams, Benny Snell and Jojo Kemp should find success.
On the other side of the ball I like how Kentucky's defensive backs match up with South Carolina's very young receivers.
Is this a must win game for Mark Stoops?
Derek Terry, Staff Writer: Absolutely. Kentucky already faces a daunting task of having to beat conference opponents South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State just to make a bowl. The last time Kentucky won four SEC games was in 2006. So far Kentucky has shown nothing to make me think it will finish the season better than 4-8. But if the Wildcats don't win this game, fans will completely check out and Stoops' seat should get a lot hotter.
Josh Ellis, Staff Writer: No doubt. If Mark Stoops can't beat a down South Carolina team at home, who else in the SEC can he beat? The hope for a bowl shouldn't totally be diminished just yet, but if the team is unable to pick up any steam against South Carolina and gain some confidence against SEC East opponents UK may only win two or three games this season -- and that may cause Stoops to pack his bags.
T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: It depends what you mean by must win. If Kentucky loses, Stoops will still almost certainly be the coach in 2016. If the Cats lose to South Carolina a bowl becomes impossible. The fans will be done for the season and will officially start the countdown for basketball season. So, if UK is still dreaming of a postseason, this is a must win for Stoops. But this isn't a must win for Stoops' tenure at Kentucky. A loss obviously won't help, but he will be leading the Cats in 2017.
Justin Rowland, Publisher: In 2016, yes. If Kentucky doesn't win this game then there's absolutely no chance they make a bowl game. If they lose this game then that could well mean they're going to finish with a very, very poor record. The question is whether it would ultimately cost Stoops his job at the end of this year. I think that's a legitimate question but I have no way of knowing how to factor in the $12 million buyout. I have a hard time believing Stoops would return if this season spins completely out of control, but then again, there aren't many precedents with real similarities that lead me to believe Kentucky would pay $12 million to avoid another season with Stoops.
What are the biggest factors that will determine the outcome of the game between UK and South Carolina?
Derek Terry, Staff Writer: Kentucky has to be able to show some resemblance of a defense. If South Carolina comes out and does whatever it wants on offense then I don't see Kentucky winning this game. I think the Wildcats will score plenty of points, but the defense hasn't stopped anyone yet. Forcing a few turnovers and letting the offense control the game is Kentucky's best chance to win.
Josh Ellis, Staff Writer: The play of the UK defense and Stephen Johnson. Johnson had a solid first showing last week, but it was against a rancid New Mexico State defense. Now he gets the test of an SEC defense. If he can manage the game well and keep from turning the ball over I think he helps UK's chances immensely. But for as good as the offense can be, it could amount to nothing if the defense doesn't get stops.
T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: It's truly a stoppable force vs. a moveable object. South Carolina's offense isn't good. Plain and simple. UK's defense is abysmal. Who wins out on Saturday? If Kentucky's defense can come up big and force stops, UK will win with relative easy. If South Carolina's offense comes alive, like every offense Kentucky has gone against this season, then the Cats will have a tough time pulling out a win. So who wins the USC offense vs. UK defense matchup will win the game. Kentucky's offense will do some good things, USC's defense will, too, but the outcome will be decided with UK's defense and USC's offense.
Justin Rowland, Publisher: The biggest factor in my mind will be how each of the starting quarterbacks play. The big plays and the mistakes made by Stephen Johnson and Brandon McIlwain will be the difference in the game. Both players can make big plays. McIlwain hasn't thrown any picks and Johnson didn't make huge mistakes against New Mexico State. But you've got to figure that explosive plays, the steadiness, and the turnovers from these guys will be a huge deal in determining the outcome.
Also, if South Carolina can just line up and rush for 250 yards in this game then I would give them the advantage.
Who will be Kentucky's MVP against South Carolina?
Derek Terry, Staff Writer: Jeff Badet. Badet is averaging a ridiculous 34.3 yards per catch this year. He's fast enough to get behind any defense, and if Johnson can find him, expect Badet to have another big day on Saturday.
Josh Ellis, Staff Writer: Benny Snell. He may not get as many carries with Jojo Kemp returning this week, but he'll be a back with fresh legs that the South Carolina defense will struggle to tackle.
T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: Mike Edwards. He's quietly been the best player in UK's secondary and he will have to make some big plays for the Cats to win.
Justin Rowland, Publisher: Stanley Williams. He's going to get a pretty standard number of touches in the run game and he should be able to make at least a couple of big plays against a defense that has been very much bend but don't break.
What's your prediction on the game's outcome?
Derek Terry, Staff Writer: South Carolina 38, Kentucky 35. I think this will be a close game, but Kentucky hasn't done enough through three weeks to make me feel confident that they'll come out with the victory.
Josh Ellis, Staff Writer: South Carolina 38, Kentucky 28. The UK defense hasn't proved it can slow any opposing offense down, and I think South Carolina's offense has a field day against the worst defense they've faced so far. I'm also not sure the Cats' offense will be able to score points down the stretch when the game is on the line.
T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: South Carolina 41, Kentucky 35. I'm not picking Kentucky's defense to hold a team under 40 until I see it. This is the worst Kentucky defensive line that I've witnessed and there's no reason to believe they will be able to do enough to slow down an awful South Carolina offense. Expect UK's offense to look fine, and Stephen Johnson will do plenty of good things, but unless there are some free agents out there UK can sign for immediate help the Cats' defense will continue to lose games.
Justin Rowland, Publisher: South Carolina 28-27. I'm really torn on the outcome here but right now I have next to zero confidence in the ability of Kentucky's defense to stop opponents. I'm more confident the defense will struggle mightily than I am that the offense will succeed. I could easily see this going Kentucky's way, but Will Muschamp has gotten his team to gut out a couple of close wins late in games this year and that puts them over the top in my mind.