Staff predictions for Kentucky-Florida
The Cats Illustrated staff makes predictions for Saturday's Kentucky-Florida game.
Does Kentucky have any advantages on paper going into this game?
Derek Terry, Staff Writer: There aren't any major advantages for Kentucky, but this Florida defense isn't as deep as it has been in previous years. Kentucky's offense should be able to move the ball and put up some points. I'm not ready to say Kentucky's receivers are better than Florida's secondary, but it's closer now than it has ever been in my life.
Kentucky's defensive backs also matchup well with Florida's receivers, but if Luke Del Rio has all day to throw then that slight advantage is obsolete.
Josh Ellis, Staff Writer: The only advantage Kentucky has going into this game would be it's secondary against Florida's receivers -- and that's only if the front seven can apply consistent pressure on the Gator offensive line and Luke Del Rio (which I think is possible). If UK's front seven can keep Del Rio on his heels for the majority of the game I think that Florida could struggle in the passing game. Outside of Antonio Callaway and maybe Brandon Powell I'm not sure they have consistency at wide receiver. After UK's showing against the run don't expect Florida to throw the ball over 40 times like they did against UMASS, but when they do I think UK has the upper hand.
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T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: I believe Kentucky has a few advantages heading into Saturday's game, albeit slight advantages. UK's secondary, although they weren't perfect in week one, will have an advantage against Luke Del Rio and the Gator receivers. Del Rio doesn't have a lot of in-game experience and struggled throwing the ball down the field against UMass. Also, Kentucky's receivers have an advantage against Florida's secondary. Yes, Florida will have Jalen Tabor back after he was suspended for week one, and maybe that changes things, but this Cats' passing attack is legit and should be able to move the chains on Saturday through the air.
Justin Rowland, Publisher: In short, I don't think so. I think Drew Barker can have some success passing the ball against Florida. I think the receivers, from the top of the rotation to the bottom, are capable of making plays. But I can't point to one area of the game where I'd say Kentucky has a straight up advantage. Perhaps Kentucky's corners get the nod over Florida's receivers. If there's one potential edge it could be the intangible of motivation. Florida will be hungry, playing their first SEC game. But Kentucky will likely come out playing with desperation and some anger after last week's loss.
What are the biggest challenges Kentucky will face on Saturday?
Derek Terry, Staff Writer: Florida isn't great up front but Kentucky's front seven clearly has a lot of issues. Slowing down the run will be a challenge but if UK can do it and force Del Rio into passing then the likelihood of a win goes up. Florida's defensive line is nasty and will make it difficult for UK to run the ball for the second straight week. Cole Mosier and Kyle Meadows will have to be better in pass protection this week or it could be a long day for Barker.
Josh Ellis, Staff Writer: Stopping the run and maintaining a steady offensive flow. Until the front seven can prove they can at least slow down opponent's run game I think stopping the run will always be a challenge for the Cats this season. On the flip side, I think it could be tough for UK to run a steady offense -- but that doesn't mean I don't think they can. Putting together solid 10-play, 50+ yard drives will do wonders for this team if they want a chance to end the streak. The problem is the Florida defense is good from top to bottom, and if the Gators can keep five guys in the box and continually stop the run UK might rely too much on the pass and fail to give the defense a rest and move the ball. The explosive touchdowns are great, but giving the defense an extended breather while marching downfield is much greater in my opinion.
Link: Our extensive Q & A with Landon Watnick of InsideTheGators.com
T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: The good news for Kentucky's putrid front seven is that the Gators have a shaky offensive line, more on that later, but the bad news for UK's solid offensive line is that Gators are nasty up front. Florida has depth, speed and experience in the trenches and that will be bad news for UK's rushing attack. If it extends to Drew Barker not having much time to throw, and it may, the Cats' passing attack will also suffer. Containing the Gators defensive front will be UK's biggest challenge on Saturday.
Justin Rowland, Publisher: Can this team bounce back when adversity hits? Because it's going to hit, and on Saturday it will hit in an extremely hostile environment and against a very talented, very fast team. How Kentucky rebounds from the first turnover, special teams miscue, tough penalty or bad break will determine whether they have a chance in the third and fourth quarters. In terms of the actual game I'd say slowing down Florida's very athletic, very quick defensive line will be a major challenge, and slowing down the Gators' running game is going to be very difficult for a team that surrendered 300 rushing yards to Southern Miss.
For Kentucky to pull an upset what are a couple of things the Cats must do?
Derek Terry, Staff Writer: UK must avoid turnovers and the defense must force turnovers. It's simple, but the Wildcats can't turn the ball over offensively and put their defense in a bad spot. The defense likely isn't good enough to overcome a short field. Likewise, the defense needs to create some turnovers and give the offense a chance to put up points.
Josh Ellis, Staff Writer: It must get steady pressure on Del Rio, win the special teams battle and trust itself on offense. This isn't an impossible game for UK to win. If the Cats can challenge a young Florida line on defense and force Del Rio to make some bad decisions, the offense will have an opportunity to takeover the momentum -- and we've all seen what this offense is capable of with the momentum in it's favor. For the most part I thought UK special teams did a pretty good job against USM and I think if they can continue to have favorable starting field position and keep Florida from that, they'll put the team in good hands. The offense will have some lapses -- that's okay, not every play is going to work against Florida's defense -- but must respond and trust the play calling, the assignments and most importantly, each other. UK does those three things and it will give itself a great chance to pull off the upset.
Link: Matchup Analysis - Who has the edge at each position?
T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: Kentucky will have to force some three and outs. After watching UK's defense against USM last week that may seem impossible, but if the Cats want to walk out of the Swamp with a win it's a must. The defense needs some time to get some rest and the offense needs a chance to build on momentum and get in sync. Sitting on the bench for long periods of time can kill an offense, as you saw in the second half last week. If the Cats' defense can get off the field quick that would go a long way for UK's upset bid. Kentucky can take up more clock on offense, rest its defense and wear down the Gators.
Justin Rowland, Publisher: Barker and the offense can't afford to turn the ball over on its side of the field. The defense needs all the help it can get, for one, and those are the kinds of turnovers that are quickly converted to points and game-changing momentum. The offense must hit on several explosive plays, because driving the field to score is going to be a tall order. And the defense probably needs to force at least two turnovers.
Who is your pick for Kentucky's MVP on Saturday?
Derek Terry, Staff Writer: Dorian Baker. Tavin Richardson played well in Baker's absence which was encouraging, but I'm predicting Baker to have a big game against the Gators. He's eager to get back on the field and Barker is ready to have another strong target to throw to.
Josh Ellis, Staff Writer: CJ Conrad. He was seldom used against Southern Miss and is a guy who needs to get the ball for this offense to be as good as it can. With all the talent and depth at wide receiver, I think there's a possibility Florida will lose track of Conrad which will allow him to make some critical plays that keep drives alive. I think he can beat the Florida linebackers in one-on-one coverage and will get a handful of targets on Saturday.
Video: Derrick Baity excited for Florida homecoming
T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: Jordan Jones. He was great against Southern Miss and he will be great again on Saturday. Hopefully if you're a UK fan, Kentucky's defense helps him out a bit more, but he was all over the field and made some impressive tackles. He will have to do more of the same to help slow down Florida's rushing attack on Saturday.
Justin Rowland, Publisher: Last week I went with Drew Barker. This week I'll go with Garrett Johnson. Making plays against Florida's secondary will not be easy, but Johnson has had success in the Swamp before. The last time Kentucky played here Johnson had two receiving touchdowns. It's another homecoming for Johnson and he's going to get plenty of targets.
What's your prediction for the game's outcome?
Derek Terry, Staff Writer: Florida 28, Kentucky 21. UK does enough to stay in the game but aren't able to pull out the victory. The streak turns 30 this weekend.
Josh Ellis, Staff Writer: Florida 30, Kentucky 27. I actually think UK does opposite of what it did last Saturday -- I think UK starts slow but battle back, find some momentum and get back into the ball game. But Florida's at home and it's defense is too much for UK to handle, they'll edge past the Cats in a close one.
T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: Florida 34, Kentucky 26. UK makes some improvements, looks better defensively but the road atmosphere and Florida's defensive depth is too much to overcome
Justin Rowland, Publisher: Florida 31, Kentucky 21. The Gators' ground game will prove to be too much for Kentucky's defense, although the Cats will turn in an inspired effort.