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Published Mar 28, 2025
Staff Predictions
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Justin Rowland  •  CatsIllustrated
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Kentucky and Tennessee have played in some memorable basketball games over the years, but none have had the stakes of Friday night's game in Indianapolis.

The No. 3 seed Wildcats took their two regular season meetings with the No. 2 Volunteers, but everyone will remember the third game.

Here's what Cats Illustrated staff members have to say about the game.

Jeff Drummond: The 242nd meeting between Kentucky and Tennessee on the hardwood carries all kinds of additional drama. The Cats, who have beaten the Vols twice this season already, stand in the way of Tennessee taking another step toward its first Final Four in program history. It's also the first time that these two bitter border-state rivals have ever played each other in the NCAA Tournament. The narrative out there is it's hard to beat a good team three times in one season, and that could very well be the case, but there are also some well-respected analysts suggesting that "styles make fights," and UK may just have a style that serves as UT's kryptonite. This one comes down to who can make shots. I think the Cats are a more trustworthy team in that regard. Give me Kentucky 79, Tennessee 75 with Andrew Carr as the MVP.

Justin Rowland: It goes without saying that the game could easily go either way. But since we're making our best guess, I'll go with the team that has won both games to this point. With a caveat. I've said that I think Kentucky needs to shoot at or around 50% from the field. They shot exactly 50% in each of the first two games. Tennessee didn't shoot as well, but the Volunteers dominated second chance points. If the game turns into garbage buckets and second chance points, Tennessee has a big advantage. But if Kentucky shoots well or fairly well, I think their improved defense should be enough to carry them to a third win against the Vols. Koby Brea needs to shoot well and play well. I think Kentucky's bench needs to play very well also. UK 82, UT 81.

Travis Graf: I think Kentucky is a bad matchup for Tennessee just like Alabama has been for Kentucky. The Volunteers have struggled to get much going on the offensive end against the Cats, particularly Chaz Lanier who has had two duds of performances. I expect him to be better tomorrow and for Rick Barnes to change up his defensive plan of attack. If Kentucky plays defense like they did against Illinois on pick and pops, I like their chances. Keeping Zakai Ziegler in check is going to be huge. Amari Williams MVP. Kentucky 77, Tennessee 74 in an instant classic.

David Sisk: The more I crunch numbers the more I think Kentucky can win this game. Mark Pope put in beautiful defensive game plans of going under screens and packing in the defenders daring Tennessee to shoot the three. Not only did the Vols do that miserably, the crowded paint made it tough to drive and score inside. UK held UT to 68.5 points per game. When Kentucky gave up 68 or less this season they were 12-0. This is going to come down to whether Tennessee particularly Chaz Lanier can make the outside shot. He averaged 12.5 points and shot 17.6% from three in the two games versus Kentucky. The rest of the year he averaged 18.1 points and shot 41% from deep. I think this is a 50/50 game. Kentucky needs to keep Tennessee’s numbers in the 60’s. I’ve picked Tennessee to beat Kentucky this year, and they’ve lost both times. So why change now? I don’t want to be a jinx. Tennessee 72, Kentucky 71.

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