Kentucky returns to Kroger Field as a favorite against Vanderbilt, giant killers against Alabama last week, and here Cats Illustrated staff members chime in with takes and predictions before the game.
What are the main reasons for optimism on Saturday night if you're a Kentucky fan?
Jeff Drummond: Kentucky's defense is playing at a level that gives the Wildcats a certain degree of confidence going into any matchup they have on the schedule. Brad White's unit has shut down two of the better offenses in college football -- Georgia and Ole Miss -- so that's the biggest reason you see Vegas favoring the Cats by almost two touchdowns this week despite the fact that Vandy has a good offense that just hung 40 points on Alabama. On the flip side, the Commodores' defense is fairly suspect (26 ppg, 346 ypg) so Kentucky should have opportunities to score enough points to secure the victory.
Travis Graf: Kentucky is better on paper across the board compared to the Commodores and if both teams bring their A games, Kentucky wins by two scores or more. I think Brad White will give the Vanderbilt offense fits and I’d be surprised if they scored 20 on the Cats. Kentucky has shown that they can really compete with the big boys by playing “small ball”, but I think they will come out looking to put up some points this week.
Justin Rowland: Kentucky's defense will be the best unit on the field Saturday. We talk about "if Vanderbilt plays like this again," and what it would mean, but if the same Kentucky defense shows up that we've seen for most of the year, this should be a win.
The other thing is Kentucky is much more comfortable playing that ball control game than some other teams are, so it's not going to throw the Wildcats for a loop if that's the kind of game that we see.
What are the main reasons for concern?
Drummond: After watching Vanderbilt stun the college football world with a 40-35 win of Alabama, it feels like many are viewing the Commodores with beer goggles right now, but there's no denying that Clark Lea's team is oozing with confidence and momentum. They're only eight points away from being undefeated this season. This is not an opponent that the Cats can afford to overlook, as last week thoroughly demonstrated. Diego Pavia is executing Vandy's unique offensive scheme with a high degree of efficiency. The Dores are 13th nationally in turnover margin, 19th in third-down conversions (49.3%), and 22nd in time of possession (32+ minutes per game). Kentucky has to find a way to negate at least two of those three categories on Saturday.
Graf: Vanderbilt obviously knocked off Alabama last week, and that’s the talk of the town, but Vanderbilt has been pretty solid in SEC play so far, taking Missouri to overtime on the ropes. I’m always weary of a Kentucky football letdown spot following A) a bye week and B) a big victory, so Vanderbilt beating Alabama last week was the best thing that could’ve happened to Kentucky from a preparation standpoint.
Rowland: We've seen that Vanderbilt is capable of playing at a very high level. If Alabama had played close to its best game last week it's probably a different outcome, but if Vanderbilt plays like that again, they stand a good chance of pulling the upset. Now, how likely is it that they play like that again? Probably not very likely, but I do believe Diego Pavia has those guys believing they can do anything, so they're going to play loose, confident, and aggressive.
Vanderbilt has a formula for winning as an underdog and it's pretty much the same method Kentucky has used for a lot of years under Mark Stoops. There's not much margin for error, but if Kentucky makes some mistakes or doesn't move the chains enough in the first half it could get dangerous.
What's your prediction and who is an important Wildcat in the matchup?
Drummond: Kentucky 29, Vanderbilt 17 -- I expect a close game that sees the Cats pull away with a late score to make things look a little more comfortable than they actually were. Brad White dials up some defensive looks that throws off Diego Pavia's swagger, and the veteran linebacker tandem of D'Eryk Jackson and Pop Dumas-Johnson each come up with big plays to highlight the victory.
Graf: Kentucky 35, Vanderbilt 14. I just see the Cats controlling this game from wire to wire and relying heavily on their defense as usual. Brock Vandagriff has improved each week this season, and he throws for three scores on Saturday.
Rowland: Kentucky 27, Vanderbilt 20. Just look at the scores of recent games between these teams in Lexington. I'd call for a bigger Kentucky win if the game was in Nashville. I'm calling for a Kentucky win, but Vanderbilt cannot be taken lightly.
