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Published Sep 27, 2024
Staff Predictions
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Justin Rowland  •  CatsIllustrated
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Does Kentucky have a chance to pull an upset against top-10 foe Ole Miss on the road this weekend?

That's the main question Cats Illustrated staff members are tackling as they share takes and offer predictions on the contest.

Here's that conversation in the typical format.

What are the main reasons for Kentucky fans to be optimistic this weekend?

Jeff Drummond: I think the Georgia game demonstrated that Kentucky can compete with anyone in the SEC if the Wildcats are motivated, focused, and execute. The ability to run the football is a potential equalizer. Bush Hamdan has to play keep-away from the Rebels' offense and pick his spots carefully to take shots down the field. If the Cats can keep the chains moving with the ground game and command time of possession, they can put themselves in a position to win late in the fourth quarter.

Graf: The positives are Kentucky building off of a Georgia game and being the toughest opponent that the Rebels have faced so far this season. I think the Cats have an identity now in running the football as a priority and their defense has been as good as any in the country outside of the South Carolina game. Running the football and winning possession are going to be huge in this one, as Ole Miss can get Kentucky’s defense gassed easily. However, I think Kentucky is built to do just that. An 11 AM kickoff helps as well.

Justin Rowland: Optimism is a strong word but if you're looking for a reason to put this one on upset watch there are some things to consider. First, Ole Miss hasn't played a team as good as Kentucky, as big as Kentucky, or as talented as Kentucky. They've dominated the teams they've played so far, but we don't know how the Rebels will respond to a team with SEC physicality.

If Kentucky's big defensive line can slow down the inside run with the rest of the defense spread out it would be a challenge to Lane Kiffin's offense.

Aside from the protection issues against South Carolina, Kentucky has looked like a pretty good team this year. Maybe Kentucky can establish some kind of rushing attack, move the chains, and keep that Ole Miss offense off balance.

What are the main reasons for Kentucky fans to be concerned?

Drummond: Can the Cats keep pace? Ole Miss leads the nation in scoring at 55 points per game, albeit none of those have come against league competition yet. Kentucky has been struggling to put points on the board in SEC play, but the Cats do have 72 points scored in six quarters against the type of teams the Rebels have played, so it's all a bit of a mystery until we see Saturday play out. Kentucky has a talented defense, but if that unit is left on the field all day, it will likely suffer from the Rebels' tempo and the fatigue it will cause.

Graf: Lane Kiffin is one of my favorite coaches in the country and the Rebels are a well-oiled machine on the offensive side of the ball, yet to be slowed down. Their run defense has also been extremely stout thus far, and that’s where Kentucky will need to lean to have a chance in this game. Kentucky’s defense is going to have to win first down, and I don’t trust them to do that consistently. I also believe Lane Kiffin will be comfortable dinking and dunking down the field to play against Kentucky’s strengths.

Rowland: Ole Miss just keeps coming. They attack you in waves and can attack you anywhere on the field. So even if you play your kind of game, a really good game, there's still a really good chance you're going to give up some explosives and you have to be prepared to counter that. Does Kentucky have the protection capability to let those receivers shine down the field? We haven't seen that from the offense enough this year. Playing your kind of game at your kind of tempo is one thing, but you still have to score enough to win this game on the road. Ole Miss is averaging 55 points per game, so even if you play very well, you've got to expect their points are going to eventually come. Can Kentucky score 28-30 points on the road even if the defense plays well?

What's your prediction for the game and who is an important player for Kentucky?

Drummond: Ole Miss 35, Kentucky 16 -- Vegas has the Rebels favored by 17.5 and a somewhat surprisingly low total of 52 for this game, so I'm gonna follow the experts' lead and pick the Rebels. But I could see this being a two-score game in the fourth quarter with a puncher's chance for the Cats if the O-Line can impose their will in similar fashion to the Georgia game, and one of the UK backs breaks a big play or two. Jamarion Wilcox as my MVP if the upset unfolds.

Graf: Ole Miss 31, Kentucky 24. I think this one will be closer than the spread indicates and it could be a similar game to the last time Kentucky was down there, but the Cats just don’t have enough offensive firepower to get over the hump.

Rowland: Ole Miss 36, Kentucky 20. I don't think Kentucky pulls the upset. This wouldn't necessarily be a close game, but the margins against a team of this caliber are narrow and I think it will snowball after a UK three-and-out or two in the wrong part of the field. Gerald Mincey is an important player for Kentucky in this game. UK has to hit some big plays, but those big plays have to develop.

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