No. 3 seed Kentucky takes on No. 6 seed Illinois with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.
Cats Illustrated staff members sound off with takes and picks before the game.
David Sisk: Which version of each team do we get? Evan Miyakawa describes Illinois as “volatile” while we know about Kentucky’s roller coaster ride. Illinois shot the lights out against Xavier although they have one of the worst three-point percentages in the country. Despite that they take the fourth most three’s of anybody. The challenge will be keeping them off the offensive glass, and oh yeah, trying to match up with a couple of studs. Kasparas Jakucionis is an extraordinary playmaker. Tomislav Ivisic is a lot like his brother, and is deadly in the pick and pop game. Will Riley probably has the highest ceiling of anyone on the floor. This will be about matchups. Amari Williams is too strong for Ivisic, but can he finish? Andrew Carr is going to have a couple of inches at the four. Maybe most importantly, I think Koby Brea will get looks. All Kentucky needs to do is muddy it up a little bit. I just don’t know what to make of Illinois. The more people think they will win, the better Kentucky plays when they are doubted. Kentucky 81 Illinois 77.
Travis Graf: This game comes down to the five starters winning their individual matchups to me. Kylan Boswell has the advantage over a hobbled and unconfident Lamont Butler. Koby Brea has the edge over Tre White. That leaves Andrew Carr and Will Riley, which I believe will be a push. The most important matchup will be Amari Williams against Tom Ivisic, where Williams should control the glass but has to defend pick and pop extremely well. The other most important matchup is Otega Oweh against Kasparas Jakucionis. Kasp is the better pro prospect, but stats and analytics give Oweh the edge as a college player this season. Free throws will be huge in this one, and Kentucky hopes that Illinois’ shooting regresses to the norm after round one. I have this one coming down to the wire, and Kentucky winning 85 to 82.
Jeff Drummond: This is an interesting matchup. Three analytics sites I visit all have it as a one-point game. It's basically a toss-up, and it depends on which version of each team shows up. Kentucky has been a bit more consistent than Illinois this season. The best version of Illinois has been among the nation's elite this season, but the Illini's bad days have been epic at times. They are prone to shoot themselves out of the game and turn the ball over in bunches. The Cats will need that to be the case on Sunday. Illinois also gives up a lot of 3s to the opponent. Kentucky has to be prepared to take advantage of that and knock down 10-plus. When the Cats hit double figures from the arc, they are tough to beat. Koby Brea and Otega Oweh figure big in this one. It seems like the rest of the world is picking Illinois. You guys know my theory when that's the case. This is where UK typically plays really well. Give me Kentucky 83, Illinois 79.
Justin Rowland: I'll be honest. I don't think there's a whole lot you can confidently say about this matchup. It really could go either way. I wouldn't be surprised if Illinois comes out and falls behind by 10 in the first half and is playing catch-up the rest of the way or if they pull away with a bevy of scoring. So it feels like a guessing game. I think Kentucky has been a little more consistent than Illinois even though the teams have similar records; more consistent in terms of more consistent performances regardless of outcome, and for that reason I'll pick them in a close game but the confidence is extremely low. Kentucky 86, Illinois 82.